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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 12:14 AM Post
Posts: 4266
turborickey said:
pitchleague said:

I was very glad to see that they gave me that mouth swab test instead of the nasal test. I don't think I could do that one!


Actually, the nasal one wasn't bad at all. No pain, just tickled. Seriously, it tickled.



You got lucky. It felt like they were "tickling" the top of my skull.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 9:15 AM Post
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Kind of amazing how much better WI has gotten through this thing so far relative to other midwestern states. The case rate and death rate are much lower than Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana and obviously Illinois.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 11:01 AM Post
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I didn't watch the other states as closely, but WI and MN started almost numerically equal and for awhile WI trended modestly worse. Its an interesting illustration of how chance can play an amplified effect with potential exponential growth.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 12:57 PM Post
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igor67 said:
I didn't watch the other states as closely, but WI and MN started almost numerically equal and for awhile WI trended modestly worse. Its an interesting illustration of how chance can play an amplified effect with potential exponential growth.


Roughly 45 percent of wi covid deaths stem from nursing homes, while 82 percent of mn deaths are from there. Otherwise mn would be performing equally or better than wi in terms of general population case results. Probably not so much chance as it is understanding the differences in how nursing homes are managed and any specific differences in how nursing home admissions from hospitals or medical staff testing are being handled.

Looking across the country, stay at home order differences between states across the general population don't appear to have any significant impact to hospitalization or death trends. Hospitals arent over capacity - medical workers are undoubtedly strained and stressed, but there are just as many nurses being laid off as there are treating covid patients, likely more. CDC has IFR down to 0.4%, with it trending closer to 0.2% after factoring in 35 percent asymptomatic cases never detected. The other aspect is understanding what percentage of "covid deaths" are tied not only to comorbidities, but to end of life situations that would have resulted in death within months had covid never existed. After reviewing some publicly available coroner reports (cook county,il in particular), I'm guessing at least 50% of covid deaths are people who had less than a year to live under the most optimistic scenarios due to their terminal maladies or extremely advanced age. The average covid death age staying several years above the country's average life expectancy reinforces that. The fact covid is a novel virus with no vaccine and its infectiousness make it worse than the seasonal flu (mainly because the flu does have various vaccines), but not by much compared to early IFR predictions that led to the lockdowns.

Lockdowns have proven to be little more beneficial than a fart in the wind compared to practicing social distancing measures in a mostly open society outside of nursing homes, and never would have happened nationwide had the true risk of the virus been better understood in march. That's not even factoring in the longterm economic and social devastation the last 3 months have created to the generations of people who will be around 10, 20, 30, 40, 50+ years from now. We are now seeing a spike in deaths related to anything other than covid. This "cure" has been much, much worse than the disease.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 2:12 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
there are just as many nurses being laid off as there are treating covid patients


Source?

Fear The Chorizo said:
This "cure" has been much, much worse than the disease.


This is opinion rather than fact, though, right? You're posing a lot of data with nothing to back it up, and I'm sure the board would like to review the source material to determine for ourselves.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 4:00 PM Post
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The pattern of spread in covid heavily favors superspreader type events. That has emerged as reasonably consistent everywhere. So it is absolutely trying to over fit the data to attribute a few hundred deaths difference between the two states to how nursing homes are managed. A couple of events can chew up that difference very quickly.
You typed IFR when the CDC released CFR guidance. Here is some significant questioning of how those numbers got reported.
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status ... 6844623873
Normally I would not cite twitter, but Bergstrom is well respected. Importantly one only has to look at the existing raw numbers of 1.6 million cases reported to 96,000 deaths (both rounded in favor of a lower estimate) and you get 6.4% currently. You can also currently work backwards from the number of deaths at 96,000 and divide by 0.004 and discover that would require 24 million Americans to have had Covid already compared to 1.6 reported. Your lower number would put that very close to 50 million Americans. The only place I have seen some kind of testing indicate that prevalence was antibodies in New York.
It's been clear for 2 months you've been determined to undersell the significance of the deaths for some reason. As with most things the estimates will change and adjust but your shorthand estimate to get to they were all going to die soon anyway is way at odds with a more thorough analysis here.
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75
Which puts the total over 10 years. The early economic data on early to reopen states hasn't been terribly exciting either. This may also change or perhaps consistent with the somewhat most comparable event the 1918 epidemic people are going to continue to be very cautious and reserved until it is gone. Sweden's grand experiment in promoting herd immunity afterall seems to have hit a big snag with barely 7% showing up in antibody testing https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 4:51 PM Post
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If anyone is interested COVID and transmission here is, in my opinion, a very nice study in Lancet Infectious Diseases. It has it's drawbacks but is quite a bit more thorough and well done than anything else I can find.
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5.pdf


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 5:34 PM Post
Posts: 1978
PeaveyFury said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
there are just as many nurses being laid off as there are treating covid patients


Source?

Fear The Chorizo said:
This "cure" has been much, much worse than the disease.


This is opinion rather than fact, though, right? You're posing a lot of data with nothing to back it up, and I'm sure the board would like to review the source material to determine for ourselves.


14 people on the reservation near me have committed suicide in the past 9 days, there is skyrocketing OD, domestic/child abuse, alcohol poisoning per capita are through the roof. Low income people have been decimated. And no I don’t have a “source”...it is via a local firefighter/emt I am friends with.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 5:48 PM Post
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superfly said:
PeaveyFury said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
there are just as many nurses being laid off as there are treating covid patients


Source?

Fear The Chorizo said:
This "cure" has been much, much worse than the disease.


This is opinion rather than fact, though, right? You're posing a lot of data with nothing to back it up, and I'm sure the board would like to review the source material to determine for ourselves.


14 people on the reservation near me have committed suicide in the past 9 days, there is skyrocketing OD, domestic/child abuse, alcohol poisoning per capita are through the roof. Low income people have been decimated. And no I don’t have a “source”...it is via a local firefighter/emt I am friends with.


And an ER nurse I’m friends with couldn’t be more thankful for the stay at home order, considering his role as a COVID screener. Anecdotal is anecdotal. Not fact.

It’s extraordinary sad any time someone decides to take their own life, but how could your friend possibly know that any of those 14 suicides were directly related to COVID? It’s impossible to know for sure, just like it’s impossible to know how many actual deaths were prevented by the quarantine. We’ll never really know what the true positive/negative was.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 23, 2020, 9:10 PM Post
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homer said:
Kind of amazing how much better WI has gotten through this thing so far relative to other midwestern states. The case rate and death rate are much lower than Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana and obviously Illinois.

** knocking on wood **

(Or if you're kalle, touching iron)

Remember: the Brewers never panic like you do.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 24, 2020, 6:17 AM Post
Posts: 2679
Reliably demonstrating individual events to lockdown or general covid fear/anxiety is going to be difficult at best, but I do imagine if we care to know that at the end it will be possible to get reasonable estimates of the impact statistically. Ultimate economic comparisons will likely be trickier, but globalization at a minimum meant everyone else's suffering was going to impact us as well. At a minimum you would still have to add the impact from cancelling all large public events, and account for people's natural reluctance to go to places like restaurants. For some comparison on how Sweden is not being spared the economic drain:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-has ... 1588870062
https://www.ft.com/content/93105160-dcb ... b262cd4b6e


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 24, 2020, 9:15 AM Post
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https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52758024

Thought this was interesting. A statisticians look at COVID. In the UK at least, if you're under 60 you're more likely to die of anything else than you are of getting and dying from COVID. That's for the entire population which would include those with compromised immune systems and others more susceptible to illness. So the risk for a healthy individual is going to be even lower.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 24, 2020, 1:25 PM Post
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The population in Florence County where our cabin is located is smaller than than have contracted Covid-19 in Milwaukee. Crazy...


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