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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 11:05 AM Post
Posts: 5210
Location: Madison, WI
The WHO thing isn't saying it won't help stop the spread (though it's probably taking the stance that it's negligible). It's saying that masks shouldn't be wasted on non health care workers. Essentially, if we have a fixed amount masks they can do the most amount of good if used by healthcare workers or those knowingly affected. Though I think they're writing this poorly. Especially the phrasing of "if healthy" since people can go days without knowing they're not healthy. Thus, just where the mask since you don't know if you have it or not. And I think they're probably taking the stance of it probably won't make a substantial difference, so don't waste the masks. I'd guess most would agree that it's not going to make some drastically huge change in any percents, which is fine. But even if it's just a marginal help, what does it hurt to toss it on when around people? It can't hurt. But I know everyone needs to make extreme stances and judgments to support their preconceived view so.

Also, if you're one that is going back and ripping for how early on they said not to where masks and how they've flip flopped. That was on purpose. They did not want mass hoarding of masks like idiots did with TP as they needed all the masks in hospitals. They were exactly correct to lie.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 11:27 AM Post
Posts: 46
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V267SQzKfys
People who wear masks vs People without masks


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 1:41 PM Post
Posts: 8849
homer said:
FVBrewerFan said:
homer said:
I thought we weren't supposed to listen to WHO anymore.


And now you see why.


I guess you're saying we should all wear masks then?


Not sure, maybe you shouldn't wear masks like the CDC said originally. Or listen to them now and wear one. No, maybe listen to WHO and not wear one. Wait, Qdoba said I should so I guess I will.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 2:53 PM Post

Tom Petty Apologist
Posts: 568
FVBrewerFan said:
So, now wearing masks is not a good idea, again. I swear they're making this up as they go along, yet people are still listening to the "experts" and their junk science.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/who-guidance-healthy-people-should-wear-masks-only-when-taking-care-of-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB14JBI4?li=BBnb7Kz


Just so I know what to look out for, what exactly is the definition of “junk science”?

Is it any science?
Science I agree with?
Science I disagree with?
science by someone who is not a scientist?
Science by many people who are scientists?


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 3:07 PM Post
Posts: 8849
JackNicholson1974 said:
FVBrewerFan said:
So, now wearing masks is not a good idea, again. I swear they're making this up as they go along, yet people are still listening to the "experts" and their junk science.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/who-guidance-healthy-people-should-wear-masks-only-when-taking-care-of-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB14JBI4?li=BBnb7Kz


Just so I know what to look out for, what exactly is the definition of “junk science”?

Is it any science?
Science I agree with?
Science I disagree with?
science by someone who is not a scientist?
Science by many people who are scientists?


Great question. Junk science is "science" that does nor follow the scientific method. Commonly, it is influenced by any and all of: bias, politics, and money.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 5:25 PM Post
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Posts: 14188
Location: Milwaukee, WI
So all science then.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 5:52 PM Post
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Global Moderator
Posts: 1595
I do not want to be alarmist, but the current trend line isn't very encouraging. Granted, some of that is increased testing, but even the average seems to be ticking upwards.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 6:17 PM Post
Posts: 46
RobertR said:
I do not want to be alarmist, but the current trend line isn't very encouraging. Granted, some of that is increased testing, but even the average seems to be ticking upwards.

What trend line are you referring to?


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 6:23 PM Post
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Posts: 12168
FVBrewerFan said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
FVBrewerFan said:
So, now wearing masks is not a good idea, again. I swear they're making this up as they go along, yet people are still listening to the "experts" and their junk science.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/who-guidance-healthy-people-should-wear-masks-only-when-taking-care-of-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB14JBI4?li=BBnb7Kz


Just so I know what to look out for, what exactly is the definition of “junk science”?

Is it any science?
Science I agree with?
Science I disagree with?
science by someone who is not a scientist?
Science by many people who are scientists?


Great question. Junk science is "science" that does nor follow the scientific method. Commonly, it is influenced by any and all of: bias, politics, and money.


Anti-science has plenty of the same.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 29, 2020, 11:22 PM Post
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Posts: 7423
Machu Peach said:
RobertR said:
I do not want to be alarmist, but the current trend line isn't very encouraging. Granted, some of that is increased testing, but even the average seems to be ticking upwards.

What trend line are you referring to?

I'm guessing it's that - on Thursday - the state had its most report cases in a single day - and the 3-day total (from Tue.-Thur) is the highest recorded.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/202 ... 282911002/


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 30, 2020, 3:48 AM Post
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Posts: 4534
reillymcshane said:
Machu Peach said:
RobertR said:
I do not want to be alarmist, but the current trend line isn't very encouraging. Granted, some of that is increased testing, but even the average seems to be ticking upwards.

What trend line are you referring to?

I'm guessing it's that - on Thursday - the state had its most report cases in a single day - and the 3-day total (from Tue.-Thur) is the highest recorded.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/202 ... 282911002/


As someone who thinking the way we reopened was foolish I still pause a little when looking at the numbers. I have followed them this whole time and noticed that it seemed like weekends were always much lower and then the week days much higher. So I was expecting the week following a holiday weekend to have a high Tuesday to Friday. To me the best way to look would be the Sunday to Saturday just because it ses like how numbers are reported puts a lot on week days. So how does this past week as a whole compare to weeks during covid-19. If that is significantly higher than we have an issue


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 30, 2020, 4:51 AM Post
Posts: 615
The WHO is not saying it's a bad idea to wear masks. The recommend that people who are showing Covid-19 symptoms should wear a mask, along with wearing a mask if you are with someone who has Covid-19. They wouldn't make those recommendations if they thought it was a bad idea to wear masks. The CDC has added that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. So, people should wear masks.
The reason given by the WHO for why healthy people shouldn't wear masks, is not because they don't think it helps, but rather the fear that people will only rely on masks and not continue to wash hands, keep proper distance, etc.... But, since people who appear to be healthy can still and have transmit the virus, the CDC recommends the use of masks in public settings, areas where it's difficult to keep the proper distance and so on.
Another reason for the difference, which the WHO doesn't mentioned and which I have also seen mentioned in the past, is that not all countries have enough supplies of masks.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cdc-offer ... d=70958380

In addition, as was mentioned in the other article linked to by the other poster,
"The authors noted that countries and regions -- Macau, Beijing, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan -- with histories of wearing masks have seen huge reductions in the number of coronavirus cases after reaching their peak."
South Korea is another country that has done much better than other countries in limiting the numbers of people catching and dying of COVID-19, by wide spread testing before the WHO stressed it and by the use of masks. Along with being better prepared in general as well.
There is more than enough evidence to show that masks do work. Take away the politics of wearing masks and just look at what the experts and evidence with a fair mind, then make up your own mind.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 30, 2020, 8:11 AM Post
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Posts: 1595
I'm mostly referring to the 7-day average of cases here. That should even out the data to an extent.

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/co ... onsin.html

There's a lot of noise in the data obviously and some of it is simply more testing, but at best, I think we're looking at a long plateau.

That said, I think the bars and restaurants opening up the way they did was foolish. The bars more than the restaurants.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 impact on MLB season
Posted: May 30, 2020, 8:37 AM Post
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Posts: 12168
adambr2 said:
One thing I'm curious to know is what the overall 2020 deaths are relative to expected overall deaths (compared to 2018, 19, etc). Does anyone have the statistics on these? I think this can help put things in perspective of how much if at all that the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to deaths in society. We know many people died with COVID-19, but how many died with it and how many died BECAUSE of it, if that makes sense.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... eaths-may/

Image

"Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year…"

Unknown how many of these are due to Covid and how many are due to other things.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 impact on MLB season
Posted: May 30, 2020, 8:54 AM Post
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Posts: 772
homer said:
adambr2 said:
One thing I'm curious to know is what the overall 2020 deaths are relative to expected overall deaths (compared to 2018, 19, etc). Does anyone have the statistics on these? I think this can help put things in perspective of how much if at all that the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to deaths in society. We know many people died with COVID-19, but how many died with it and how many died BECAUSE of it, if that makes sense.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... eaths-may/

"Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year…"

Unknown how many of these are due to Covid and how many are due to other things.

Does this mean the event was mishandled, or the original estimate was wrong? ... or maybe a combination of both?
The Yale-led team used historical death data to estimate the expected number of deaths for each week this year, adjusting for such factors as seasonal variation and the intensity of flu epidemics. To calculate excess deaths, the researchers subtracted their estimate of expected deaths from the overall number of deaths reported by the National Center for Health Statistics.


... but it is not the flu... [wink]


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 30, 2020, 10:35 AM Post
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Posts: 9020
Wisconsin's graph on that site is fascinating.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 31, 2020, 8:33 PM Post
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Posts: 8710
ROME (Reuters) - The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday.

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

...

A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.

“It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ

Sounds encouraging.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: May 31, 2020, 9:13 PM Post
Posts: 2700
Evolving to be less lethal is certainly plausible, even predictable. However barring something more concrete as evidence that's happened I'd withhold judgement. The style of the article and the quotes don't fill me with optimism to be honest. It sounds more like a heavy slant piece instead of an interview with a researcher.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 01, 2020, 10:30 AM Post
Posts: 2257
Location: Madison, WI
JackNicholson1974 said:

Just so I know what to look out for, what exactly is the definition of “junk science”?



Going into an "unprecedented time" and treating models as absolute predictors of what will happen. If it's unprecedented, how can we expect to get reliable data out of the model? Somewhere along the line, an individual or group of individuals, will have to plug in some numbers as a baseline to begin the projection, but how do they come up with those numbers if it is all unprecedented?

Personally, I wouldn't call this science or junk science because it actually is neither. At best it's an initial hypothesis that hasn't undergone any scientific testing or scrutiny. Unfortunately, the media and politicians seem to decide what is science and, as a whole, those are probably the two least qualified groups on the planet to do that.

Unfortunately there was a chance by the government to actually do some science by performing some actual contact tracing early on and proceed with policy based on some actual hard data. But Wisconsin fell flat here, and that's not to rip specifically on Wisconsin, because it seems that nationwide the government fell completely flat in what was likely the most opportune time to get some real reliable data on transmission rates.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/hea ... 150125002/

So we never got "guy A" has the virus. Who does "guy A" live with? How many of the people also living with "guy A" got sick? Where did "guy A" go the last two weeks? 8 places that he can remember....how many other positive cases can we trace back to those 8 places? Apparently that's too much work for the government. They like computer models because it's easy, cheaper, techie...and they think they can easily talk their way out of ridiculous "60% infected" projections because it is SCIENCE. Complete failure.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 01, 2020, 12:51 PM Post
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The Weatherman
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Posts: 6508
JosephC said:
JackNicholson1974 said:

Just so I know what to look out for, what exactly is the definition of “junk science”?



Going into an "unprecedented time" and treating models as absolute predictors of what will happen. If it's unprecedented, how can we expect to get reliable data out of the model? Somewhere along the line, an individual or group of individuals, will have to plug in some numbers as a baseline to begin the projection, but how do they come up with those numbers if it is all unprecedented?

Personally, I wouldn't call this science or junk science because it actually is neither. At best it's an initial hypothesis that hasn't undergone any scientific testing or scrutiny. Unfortunately, the media and politicians seem to decide what is science and, as a whole, those are probably the two least qualified groups on the planet to do that.

Unfortunately there was a chance by the government to actually do some science by performing some actual contact tracing early on and proceed with policy based on some actual hard data. But Wisconsin fell flat here, and that's not to rip specifically on Wisconsin, because it seems that nationwide the government fell completely flat in what was likely the most opportune time to get some real reliable data on transmission rates.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/hea ... 150125002/

So we never got "guy A" has the virus. Who does "guy A" live with? How many of the people also living with "guy A" got sick? Where did "guy A" go the last two weeks? 8 places that he can remember....how many other positive cases can we trace back to those 8 places? Apparently that's too much work for the government. They like computer models because it's easy, cheaper, techie...and they think they can easily talk their way out of ridiculous "60% infected" projections because it is SCIENCE. Complete failure.


As someone who works in the modeling business, we have a saying: "All models are wrong, but some are useful."

Most of what you are saying sounds like Monday morning quarterbacking. Nobody had the job of doing the above because government wasn't paying anyone to do it. That was the failure point of government--not being prepared for a disaster that everyone knew would happen eventually.

So putting that aside (which is a political topic that is beyond the scope of this discussion), they really had no choice but to go to whatever experts they could find and scramble to organize. Most of the models initially came from university research groups who were applying their RESEARCH models to coronavirus.

This is like if a hurricane was approaching the United States and we didn't have the National Weather Service or National Hurricane Center so we used whatever models some university scientists happened to be working at the time. That's a guaranteed recipe for delivering inconsistent messages and having to amend recommendations on the fly. If they change their policy on masks and have good reasoning for it, then it's completely logical to go with it. I certainly changed my personal opinion on masks as this whole thing evolved.


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