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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 01, 2020, 6:13 PM Post
Posts: 46
JosephC said:
Unfortunately there was a chance by the government to actually do some science by performing some actual contact tracing early on and proceed with policy based on some actual hard data. But Wisconsin fell flat here, and that's not to rip specifically on Wisconsin, because it seems that nationwide the government fell completely flat in what was likely the most opportune time to get some real reliable data on transmission rates.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/hea ... 150125002/

So we never got "guy A" has the virus. Who does "guy A" live with? How many of the people also living with "guy A" got sick? Where did "guy A" go the last two weeks? 8 places that he can remember....how many other positive cases can we trace back to those 8 places? Apparently that's too much work for the government. They like computer models because it's easy, cheaper, techie...and they think they can easily talk their way out of ridiculous "60% infected" projections because it is SCIENCE. Complete failure.


If only it was this easy.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 01, 2020, 6:50 PM Post
Posts: 46
Not to throw more gas on the masks vs no masks fire, but I think this could be of interest to some people.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

On a semi-related note, I always find it bemusing when I hear someone say something to the effect of "Trust The Science!" I don't trust the science, I question it constantly. That's what makes me a Scientist. People everywhere, including some here, seem to think of SCIENCE! as a monolithic organization when it is certainly not. It's okay (and even necessary) for scientists to publicly disagree. Similarly, it's okay (and even necessary) for the opinions and positions of scientists to evolve as new information become available. It does not mean that anyone screwed up and it's all a very normal part of the process. I think the disconnect is because people are used to seeing public political debates and then apply the same rules to scientific debates.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 02, 2020, 9:22 AM Post
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Posts: 5807
Machu Peach said:
Not to throw more gas on the masks vs no masks fire, but I think this could be of interest to some people.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

On a semi-related note, I always find it bemusing when I hear someone say something to the effect of "Trust The Science!" I don't trust the science, I question it constantly. That's what makes me a Scientist. People everywhere, including some here, seem to think of SCIENCE! as a monolithic organization when it is certainly not. It's okay (and even necessary) for scientists to publicly disagree. Similarly, it's okay (and even necessary) for the opinions and positions of scientists to evolve as new information become available. It does not mean that anyone screwed up and it's all a very normal part of the process. I think the disconnect is because people are used to seeing public political debates and then apply the same rules to scientific debates.


Wish we could put this on a billboard.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 02, 2020, 10:27 AM Post
Posts: 8849
Machu Peach said:
Not to throw more gas on the masks vs no masks fire, but I think this could be of interest to some people.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

On a semi-related note, I always find it bemusing when I hear someone say something to the effect of "Trust The Science!" I don't trust the science, I question it constantly. That's what makes me a Scientist. People everywhere, including some here, seem to think of SCIENCE! as a monolithic organization when it is certainly not. It's okay (and even necessary) for scientists to publicly disagree. Similarly, it's okay (and even necessary) for the opinions and positions of scientists to evolve as new information become available. It does not mean that anyone screwed up and it's all a very normal part of the process. I think the disconnect is because people are used to seeing public political debates and then apply the same rules to scientific debates.


Great point. This can be extended to the CDC. I think often times people view CDC almost like it's one person. Of course ,it is not. They have to come out with official positions on everything, obviously. You can't announce "64% of our experts believe X, 28% believe Y, 8% believe Z." No, you come to a consensus as best you can, sprinkle in some politics and good old fashioned CYA, and make your announcement.

That doesn't mean it should be dismissed out of hand. It also doesn't mean it shouldn't be questioned. There's a whole lot of Covid- related things that are not proven science yet.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 02, 2020, 2:14 PM Post
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Posts: 5871
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Interesting article from NPR.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... st-thought


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 02, 2020, 11:34 PM Post
Posts: 615
The article on masks was originally published on April 1st. A lot more is known about COVID-19 and the effectiveness of masks. Which also means most of the research and the article itself was written before the virus was as wide spread as it would become. And since that time, more experts and countries have recommended the use of masks.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 04, 2020, 11:04 AM Post
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Posts: 772
JosephC said:
So we never got "guy A" has the virus. Who does "guy A" live with? How many of the people also living with "guy A" got sick? Where did "guy A" go the last two weeks? 8 places that he can remember....how many other positive cases can we trace back to those 8 places? Apparently that's too much work for the government. They like computer models because it's easy, cheaper, techie...and they think they can easily talk their way out of ridiculous "60% infected" projections because it is SCIENCE. Complete failure.

Unless I'm Kevin Bacon, I'm not a fan of having the government tracing my steps. Sure... I know they can track my cell phone and get a history of where I have been. However, if they start publishing some type of report, I would be quite disturbed. I would not want to suffer the same fate as Comrade Withers...


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 04, 2020, 8:44 PM Post
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Posts: 8710
Samurai Bucky said:
JosephC said:
So we never got "guy A" has the virus. Who does "guy A" live with? How many of the people also living with "guy A" got sick? Where did "guy A" go the last two weeks? 8 places that he can remember....how many other positive cases can we trace back to those 8 places? Apparently that's too much work for the government. They like computer models because it's easy, cheaper, techie...and they think they can easily talk their way out of ridiculous "60% infected" projections because it is SCIENCE. Complete failure.

Unless I'm Kevin Bacon, I'm not a fan of having the government tracing my steps. Sure... I know they can track my cell phone and get a history of where I have been. However, if they start publishing some type of report, I would be quite disturbed. I would not want to suffer the same fate as Comrade Withers...


The government is hiring thousands of people to do just this. I thought about applying to do it but decided the less I have this stupid disease on my mind the better for my mental health. Supposedly, the countries that have "beaten" the virus were doing this from the start.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 05, 2020, 6:13 AM Post
Posts: 2700
While there may be some differences, fundamentally public health has been doing contract tracing for decades. HIV and tuberculosis being of the most common. I think most people would find HIV contract tracing far more invasive given that they are only concerned (for the most part) with sexual contact. The pervasive difficult to escape if you want to use modern technology tracking by private parties is much newer.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 impact on MLB season
Posted: June 05, 2020, 3:19 PM Post
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Posts: 6659
homer said:
adambr2 said:
One thing I'm curious to know is what the overall 2020 deaths are relative to expected overall deaths (compared to 2018, 19, etc). Does anyone have the statistics on these? I think this can help put things in perspective of how much if at all that the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to deaths in society. We know many people died with COVID-19, but how many died with it and how many died BECAUSE of it, if that makes sense.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... eaths-may/

Image

"Between March 1 and May 9, the nation recorded an estimated 101,600 excess deaths, or deaths beyond the number that would normally be expected for that time of year…"

Unknown how many of these are due to Covid and how many are due to other things.

Why does the overall expected number of deaths begin to decline in mid-February and drop off in early May? Looks like way too much of a dropoff to simply be seasonal flu.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 7:55 AM Post
Posts: 2257
Location: Madison, WI
Latest government failure-

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/media ... ldings.pdf

Early in the document-
Science shows us that face coverings can help stop the spread of the virus.

Later in the document-
All patrons in the Commonwealth aged ten and over shall when entering, exiting, traveling through, and spending time inside the settings listed below cover their mouth and nose with a face covering, as described and recommended by the CDC:

Even later in the document-
State or local government buildings when accessed for the purpose of securing public services, with the exception of students in daycare centers or participating in-person classes in K-12 education or institutions of higher education.

I guess science says that the virus cannot be transmitted by 9 year old's in grocery stores or 20-year old's sitting in a journalism class? Science! Science! Science! Equally as ridiculous as the stay-at-homes where staying at home means go to the grocery store, go to the hardware store, go get an oil filter at the auto parts store, go to the laundromat, go through the drive-through window at McDonalds and don't forget to stop at the dispensary to pick up some dope (where it is now legal).

https://www.richmond.com/special-report ... 02968.html


Last edited by JosephC on June 06, 2020, 8:00 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 7:58 AM Post
Posts: 2700
Good question, so the short version some quick skimming indicates that the observation of higher winter death rates exist goes back to early Western medicine, but the overall picture is still only modestly understood. Flu itself is only modestly responsible for the increase, with other respiratory infections causing some more, but cardiovascular disease being the single most identifiable factor.

https://www.demogr.mpg.de/books/drm/003/2.pdf
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18959541/


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 8:50 AM Post
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Posts: 8710
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-health-protests-301534?cid=apn

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

[rolling eyes]

And health officials and the medical community wonder why people have lost trust in them. Don't get to the beach, don't go visit your aunt and her kids, your haircut isn't more important than saving lives, stay inside stay safe, #flattenthecurve! But we encourage you to gather with hundreds or thousands of people and the government better not dare try and stop you because of health concerns.

I don't care if people protest about whatever they want to protest about but don't tell us all that we're being selfish and endangering lives for doing the same thing you are now encouraging people to do just because you agree with their cause.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 9:11 AM Post
Posts: 2257
Location: Madison, WI
jerichoholicninja said:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/06/04/public-health-protests-301534?cid=apn

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html

[rolling eyes]

And health officials and the medical community wonder why people have lost trust in them. Don't get to the beach, don't go visit your aunt and her kids, your haircut isn't more important than saving lives, stay inside stay safe, #flattenthecurve! But we encourage you to gather with hundreds or thousands of people and the government better not dare try and stop you because of health concerns.

I don't care if people protest about whatever they want to protest about but don't tell us all that we're being selfish and endangering lives for doing the same thing you are now encouraging people to do just because you agree with their cause.


I couldn't agree more.

I 100% support those who want to peacefully protest without restriction as long as it's done without destruction of property, obstructing traffic or physically beating up another human being. It is a constitutional right.

Practicing one's religion is also a constitutional right, and the media's double standard of "it's your right to protest" versus "if you go to church you are evil because you are putting other in peril" is pretty mind-boggling. What happened with some Jewish funerals in New York a few months ago looks like a complete disgrace now.

Personally, I don't care of it's FOX News, CNN, MSNBC. I wish there was a big enough toilet to flush all these "journalist" down the drain with one push of the handle.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 2700
So remember when I said multiple times that the simplified messaging was key to communicating. Perfect example here. You are complaining about a double standard, but as the quotes from the healthcare letters indicate they are motivated and arguing for this course of action based on public health needs of the black community (aka a single standard is being used). Were they saying do whatever you want? No. They were arguing for not using 1 public health crisis to prevent improvement on another. Looking at the Life expectancy data we can observe a 3.5 years difference between black and white Americans
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 07-508.pdf

This now becomes the challenge do you want to sort through and figure out how comparable that is to covid? The chronic vs. acute makes it tricky, but just looking at some numbers makes it clear that these are 2 public health issues of a similar enough magnitude to be comparable. To be clear I don't necessarily think it's the correct call, but it is close enough to recognize it is legitimately debatable. That is the real importance of the free speech right, reminding ourselves to do try and give folks a chance and hear them out.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 10:14 AM Post
Posts: 3765
JosephC said:

I couldn't agree more.

I 100% support those who want to peacefully protest without restriction as long as it's done without destruction of property, obstructing traffic or physically beating up another human being. It is a constitutional right.

Practicing one's religion is also a constitutional right, and the media's double standard of "it's your right to protest" versus "if you go to church you are evil because you are putting other in peril" is pretty mind-boggling. What happened with some Jewish funerals in New York a few months ago looks like a complete disgrace now.

Personally, I don't care of it's FOX News, CNN, MSNBC. I wish there was a big enough toilet to flush all these "journalist" down the drain with one push of the handle.


I dont disagree with what you said, but my only response would be that you dont need to be in church to practice your faith(funerals are different). In fact, I'm pretty sure the bible even says something similar. I may be misremembering.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 11:13 AM Post
Posts: 46
stoutdude04 said:
I dont disagree with what you said, but my only response would be that you dont need to be in church to practice your faith(funerals are different). In fact, I'm pretty sure the bible even says something similar. I may be misremembering.


The response to this is that it's not up to you (or anyone else) to determine what is needed for others practice their faith. Most religions don't use the bible, so what it says is irrelevant.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 11:32 AM Post
Posts: 46
igor67 said:
So remember when I said multiple times that the simplified messaging was key to communicating. Perfect example here. You are complaining about a double standard, but as the quotes from the healthcare letters indicate they are motivated and arguing for this course of action based on public health needs of the black community (aka a single standard is being used). Were they saying do whatever you want? No. They were arguing for not using 1 public health crisis to prevent improvement on another. Looking at the Life expectancy data we can observe a 3.5 years difference between black and white Americans
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 07-508.pdf

This now becomes the challenge do you want to sort through and figure out how comparable that is to covid? The chronic vs. acute makes it tricky, but just looking at some numbers makes it clear that these are 2 public health issues of a similar enough magnitude to be comparable. To be clear I don't necessarily think it's the correct call, but it is close enough to recognize it is legitimately debatable. That is the real importance of the free speech right, reminding ourselves to do try and give folks a chance and hear them out.


Would you please prove what "numbers" you're looking through to determine that police brutality towards minorities and and COVID are of a similar magnitude from a public health point of view? I don't know how I would even begin to determine such a thing.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 11:45 AM Post
Posts: 46
One thing that has been bugging me is the definition of "public health". I can see two possible definitions. A more limited one would be hygiene, epidemiology, and disease prevention and their effects the health of a population. One can easily argue that this is too limited as it ignores many major things impacting health. A more expansive definition would be anything to do with the health of a population. One can easily argue that this definition is so broad that it covers literally everything in the world and thus is meaningless.

One big criticism of mine of the CDC is that mission creep has caused them to study things like gun violence and accidental pool deaths. Both are certainly important topics that deserve study, but really fall more into a societal structure category than a disease category. Thus by having the CDC study them you're losing expertise/focus on actual diseases. There are certainly many things in grey areas, such as alcoholism, which falls into both societal structure and disease categories.

I don't really have a good or simple answer for any of that, but they are things that I think need to be considered.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 06, 2020, 12:55 PM Post
Posts: 2700
I'll go for bullet points

*police brutality is a central theme and catalyst to the protest, but many of the speakers broaden and speak towards systematic racism.
* From a training standpoint in education and from my wife's experience's in healthcare things are generally lumped into systematic racism with police brutality just 1 example, so as a matter of how they think about the the issues it is going to be influenced more by that perspective than just a singular focus on brutality.
* I used the life expectancy difference as an estimate for the cumulative impact of systematic factors, an approach I had seen used elsewhere particularly in noticing the decline in rural white America related to the trending economic decline since the 1970's.
*It was also they only way I could think of to try and mesh the numbers without a really sophisticated analysis. #overlyhonestmethods
* The most recent comparable for Covid I could find is from https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75 and would give you a 12 years lost on average per covid death. Those are not identical measurement types, but in a loose comparison I think it works ok.
*So the covid impact is noticeably higher in terms of years, but as an acute problem it is only a 1 time 'cost' whereas the systematic racism accumulates and will continue to accumulate damage over time.
* 42 million African Americans * the 3 year life expectancy gap = 126 million years of life lost, 12 years* the current highside estimate of 1% mortality and 2/3 population needed for herd immunity = 26.4 million years lost
*Thanks for pushing me to finish making the estimation, on my initial eyeballing I still thought worst case covid was going to come out modestly ahead, but the population size difference between all African Americans and only 1% or so dying from Covid really flips that estimation around.
* The initial core argument was only that the 2 would be close enough for a reasonable person in the field to act like they were similar scale problems without resorting to ascribing bias or tribalism as explanation.


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