LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 ... 100  Next  [ 1989 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

COVID-19 Thread

Author Message
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 24, 2020, 10:20 AM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Seems not so much that it's fudging. But that they came in for something else, and since everyone is tested now they find out they have it. That's the way I interpret what he posted anyway. I mean you can't not count it.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 24, 2020, 10:25 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 5652
I didn't that they were fudged either. Just that they came to the hospital for something else (i.e. baby) and tested positive for COVID. (note that I'm just reading the OP, not bringing in other knowledge of the situation).

Statistics always need to be interpreted with the reality of what is going on. A month ago, MN numbers were spiking...but we also started increasing the test rate by 10x, so of course they were finding more people. But at the same time, hospitalization rates were steady, so they were finding people with minimal symptoms or asymptomatic as they just tested more.

So I think his point was that hospitalization rates might be influenced by the number of people coming in for something else and incidentally being (correctly) tested positive for COVID, rather than simply coming in for COVID related reasons. For example, if I went in for an appendectomy and tested positive for COVID (though no symptoms), I'd be counted as COVID positive in a bed and on a respirator, but not because of COVID. I don't know if the statistics are that "dumb" or if they can filter more intelligently. But it wouldn't surprise me if statistics were being "polluted" this way.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 24, 2020, 10:41 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 12760
Ok I understand now. Obviously yes that should be counted as a positive case. But I don't think that accounts for all that many positive cases or ICU beds. That would be a crappy thing to hear though "Hey we need to remove your liver....also you have Covid."

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 24, 2020, 10:57 AM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Agree. It's probably some here and there but one would guess it's not a huge part of it. And seems to me the right way to count it imo as it takes out gray areas. Assuming we're interpreting OP correctly here anyway.


 Top
 
Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 8:46 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 1605
I suppose it depends on what you're trying to measure. If you're measuring risk to health care workers, then absolutely count everyone in the hospital. If you're measuring severity of the disease, then possibly a hospitalization for something else might not count. Albeit, removing judgement from whether it counts or not is usually a good thing.

I'm pretty pessimistic about things at the moment. Yeah, I'm stir crazy too, but wearing a mask and keeping some distance would allow things to approach a semblance of normalcy. And it clearly seems like Americans are incapable of it.


 Top
 
Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 9:08 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 1605
Texas has shut down their bars. And dialed back restaurant occupancy.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 9:24 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 9395
It really is sad that a lot of the states that unwound restrictions did so with the noble intent to help businesses survive, but the haphazard way things opened too quickly is likely going to end up harming a lot of those businesses more in the long run than if they had just stayed closed a bit longer.

Which is literally the argument that health officials were making back in May....


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 10:33 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7485
The thing about the COVID stuff with businesses is that - from my observations - it's really hurting the little guys the most. I just feel for the small businesses.

I was out of state a couple of weeks ago, and had dinner at a big chain restaurant. They did the distancing thing pretty well. Every other booth empty. Everyone with masks. That sort of thing. I then went to a small craft brewer, and talked with the owner (from about 20 feet away). He had just reopened, but it was hard. His revenue was really low, so he couldn't bring back all his staff. Meaning he was working all day, seven days a week, just to make things feasible. And he was terrified of what would happen if he got sick. And not just the possibility of having a serious health issue - but what would happen to his business if he was knocked out for 2-3 weeks or more.

The big chain places are built for turnover. And no one person is essential. It's these smaller places that - I think - are going to suffer the most when all is said and done.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 10:46 AM Post
Posts: 5206
PeaveyFury said:
It really is sad that a lot of the states that unwound restrictions did so with the noble intent to help businesses survive, but the haphazard way things opened too quickly is likely going to end up harming a lot of those businesses more in the long run than if they had just stayed closed a bit longer.

Which is literally the argument that health officials were making back in May....


I don't think it has a whole lot to do with if/when states unwound restrictions on businesses/activities that aren't obvious large indoor crowd gathering events. Even states that never shut down imposed and continue to impose strict social distancing measures and don't have huge community events going on. If statewide business reopening policy was more prevalent then California wouldn't be exploding in their daily case totals, WI would be going nuts, etc. This recent surge in certain states seems to have alot more to do with areas requiring heavy AC use for common life - i.e., people staying indoors breathing largely recycled air rather than mostly fresh air. Summer weather doesn't do people much good if it drives them inside more. Nationwide, the average age of confirmed cases is also plummeting due in large part to working age demographic testing increases. There are a ton of employers requiring testing before going back to work. These people were likely getting infected 2 months ago, they just weren't being tested on a community-wide scale because they weren't symptomatic and testing elderly/at risk demographics was far more important. The last thing I'd add to this is even with the shutdowns, there was going to be a time a few months after they ended when the virus would "peak" - many times that peak was forecast to be in June/July even with stay at home measures. We are basically at that point on the calendar, so it's not exactly a surprise that other parts of the country appear to be "peaking" regardless of what they did back in April or May. Stay at home wasn't intended to eliminate the spread, it was intended to get areas to a place medically where they could manage care through its inevitable outbreak and not have the entire country in flames at the same time.

Also, there's growing anecdotal evidence that both positive test count and infection rate parameters aren't closely tied to individual cases to the point of accurately projecting COVID-specific hospitalizations and most importantly COVID-linked deaths - especially if trying to use the rates initially established this spring while using results of very limited to no population-wide testing. Hospitals test patients multiple times, especially if a person tests positive initially. How various states report these totals from hospital systems and labs is not entirely consistent in both information sources and timing of how data is reported/tallied on a daily basis - that helps to explain some of the discrepancies with ICU/hospital bed use/hospital discharges/specific dates of COVID-related deaths, etc.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 11:02 AM Post
Posts: 5206
homer said:
Ok I understand now. Obviously yes that should be counted as a positive case. But I don't think that accounts for all that many positive cases or ICU beds. That would be a crappy thing to hear though "Hey we need to remove your liver....also you have Covid."


Sorry for the lag in responding, but yes...this is happening - but the reality in climbing ICU capacity in states like AZ is definitely of concern, as it's a combination of "normal" hospital function but also trying to accomodate the added stress COVID patients requiring substantial hospital care.

I just hope when the liver transplant patient is notified about having COVID, they are kindly reminded they are an asymptomatic case and wouldn't ever need to be in a hospital for it for their own peace of mind...IMO needing a new liver sucks way worse! However, a patient in a hospital for a liver surgery that happens to have asymptomatic COVID is logged as a COVID hospitalization until they get discharged - as it's likely they would need to recover in a COVID-specific section of the hospital because they are potentially infectious despite being asymptomatic.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 11:06 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 9395
Fear The Chorizo said:
If statewide business reopening policy was more prevalent then California wouldn't be exploding in their daily case totals, WI would be going nuts, etc. This recent surge in certain states seems to have alot more to do with areas requiring heavy AC use for common life - i.e., people staying indoors breathing largely recycled air rather than mostly fresh air.


But based on the current data, Wisconsin IS starting to go nuts, for the record. And it's hard to ignore that a lot of the current outbreak is happening in states that either A)opened without many restrictions, or B)opened before most other places did.

Fear The Chorizo said:
The last thing I'd add to this is even with the shutdowns, there was going to be a time a few months after they ended when the virus would "peak" - many times that peak was forecast to be in June/July even with stay at home measures. We are basically at that point on the calendar, so it's not exactly a surprise that other parts of the country appear to be "peaking" regardless of what they did back in April or May.


But wasn't the narrative just a couple of weeks ago that the 'peak' in states like Minnesota happened around Memorial Day? Clearly, that wasn't actually the case and it has proven false, much like the hopes that were pinned to the 'wait until the weather gets warm' narrative as well, which was extremely prevalent back in early spring. The point is, regardless of what the cause is, the virus HASN'T slowed down in the summer, and cases are ballooning, and it absolutely has to do with the lessening of restrictions.

Fear The Chorizo said:
Also, there's growing anecdotal evidence that both positive test count and infection rate parameters aren't closely tied to individual cases to the point of accurately projecting COVID-specific hospitalizations and most importantly COVID-linked deaths - especially if trying to use the rates initially established this spring while using results of very limited to no population-wide testing. Hospitals test patients multiple times, especially if a person tests positive initially. How various states report these totals from hospital systems and labs is not entirely consistent in both information sources and timing of how data is reported/tallied on a daily basis - that helps to explain some of the discrepancies with ICU/hospital bed use/hospital discharges/specific dates of COVID-related deaths, etc.


This also sounds like interesting data to review! I'd certainly be interested in seeing the source material here, in addition to the data on typical ICU-capacity rates from your post a few days back, as I think that would add a lot of insight into what's going on currently.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 11:08 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 9395
PeaveyFury said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
If statewide business reopening policy was more prevalent then California wouldn't be exploding in their daily case totals, WI would be going nuts, etc. This recent surge in certain states seems to have alot more to do with areas requiring heavy AC use for common life - i.e., people staying indoors breathing largely recycled air rather than mostly fresh air.


But based on the current data, Wisconsin IS starting to go nuts, for the record. And it's hard to ignore that a lot of the current outbreak is happening in states that either A)opened without many restrictions, or B)opened before most other places did.

Fear The Chorizo said:
The last thing I'd add to this is even with the shutdowns, there was going to be a time a few months after they ended when the virus would "peak" - many times that peak was forecast to be in June/July even with stay at home measures. We are basically at that point on the calendar, so it's not exactly a surprise that other parts of the country appear to be "peaking" regardless of what they did back in April or May.


But wasn't the narrative just a couple of weeks ago that the 'peak' in states like Minnesota happened around Memorial Day? Clearly, that wasn't actually the case and it has proven false, much like the hopes that were pinned to the 'wait until the weather gets warm' narrative as well, which was extremely prevalent back in early spring. The point is, regardless of what the cause is, the virus HASN'T slowed down in the summer, and cases are ballooning, and it absolutely has to do with the lessening of restrictions.

Fear The Chorizo said:
Also, there's growing anecdotal evidence that both positive test count and infection rate parameters aren't closely tied to individual cases to the point of accurately projecting COVID-specific hospitalizations and most importantly COVID-linked deaths - especially if trying to use the rates initially established this spring while using results of very limited to no population-wide testing. Hospitals test patients multiple times, especially if a person tests positive initially. How various states report these totals from hospital systems and labs is not entirely consistent in both information sources and timing of how data is reported/tallied on a daily basis - that helps to explain some of the discrepancies with ICU/hospital bed use/hospital discharges/specific dates of COVID-related deaths, etc.


This also sounds like interesting data to review! I'd certainly be interested in seeing the source material here, in addition to the data on typical ICU-capacity rates from your post a few days back, as I think that would add a lot of insight into what's going on currently.


Fear The Chorizo said:
I just hope when the liver transplant patient is notified about having COVID, they are kindly reminded they are an asymptomatic case and wouldn't ever need to be in a hospital for it for their own peace of mind...IMO needing a new liver sucks way worse! However, a patient in a hospital for a liver surgery that happens to have asymptomatic COVID is logged as a COVID hospitalization until they get discharged - as it's likely they would need to recover in a COVID-specific section of the hospital because they are potentially infectious despite being asymptomatic.


Doesn't this require the assumption that that liver transplant patient wouldn't be at a high risk of COVID complications/ICU needs because of that very underlying condition?


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 12:29 PM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
PeaveyFury said:
It really is sad that a lot of the states that unwound restrictions did so with the noble intent to help businesses survive, but the haphazard way things opened too quickly is likely going to end up harming a lot of those businesses more in the long run than if they had just stayed closed a bit longer.

Which is literally the argument that health officials were making back in May....


Compliments on the phrasing here in the first paragraph. Much better than the shouting and acting like those people were deliberately trying to harm people. People can just be wrong and make incorrect decisions, especially in an unprecedented situation trying to juggle many issues at once like in this case, without being intentionally harmful.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 12:30 PM Post
Posts: 8982
Pretty simple, many more young people getting tested in some of these states. Positives go up, but death rates way down. Which is all that really matters.

As far as when/ how states have opened there is no correlation between that and case spikes. Those states opened two months ago, and just recently saw AZ, TX, FL rise in cases. Why now? Why haven't all states experienced this trend? Because there is no correlation. No matter what states do, we will see hot spots pop up. That's not unexpected.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 12:50 PM Post
Posts: 5206
Doesn't this require the assumption that that liver transplant patient wouldn't be at a high risk of COVID complications/ICU needs because of that very underlying condition?

Potentially, but if you're an alcoholic who needs a new liver and the only reason you became aware you have COVID is because the hospital tested you for it prior to a procedure, I wouldn't consider them any higher risk of requiring an ICU bed than if they tested negative for COVID. A liver transplant, heart surgery, other major procedure patient is going to require an ICU bed no matter what - if they are an asymptomatic positive COVID case they likely take up a bed in a portion of the hospital established for COVID patients to reduce spread. They aren't in ICU because of COVID, they are recovering from a major surgery.

I really doubt hospitals are seeing a swell of patients showing up that can't taste anything and undergoing respiratory failure requiring intubation and doctors are saying "hey, while you're in here recovering from from the 'Ro' we realized you need a bunch of new organs, so let's get that taken care of, too."

But wasn't the narrative just a couple of weeks ago that the 'peak' in states like Minnesota happened around Memorial Day? Clearly, that wasn't actually the case and it has proven false, much like the hopes that were pinned to the 'wait until the weather gets warm' narrative as well, which was extremely prevalent back in early spring. The point is, regardless of what the cause is, the virus HASN'T slowed down in the summer, and cases are ballooning, and it absolutely has to do with the lessening of restrictions.

During the extended lockdown, MN health officials figured the peak in the state would be late June or into July assuming stay at home measures continued through most of May. They started lifting restrictions in mid to late May, then the George Floyd issue happened right as hospitalizations/new cases were climbing in late May and many said the state was headed for disaster since the true peak hadn't yet hit. Today, a full month after protests and rioting were occurring, the state reported 5 new deaths with a hospitalization total similar to early April when the initial wave was just starting to climb despite a ton of tests. I fully expect MN cases to climb again later this summer just like everywhere else because testing numbers is what is driving case counts. Based on both hospitalization and death rates compared to case counts, the virus has indeed slowed down in terms of its impact on people's health - if its a diminished virus it doesn't kill as many people as it did months ago...that's a very common occurrence with viruses as they mutate/evolve.


Last edited by Fear The Chorizo on June 26, 2020, 12:55 PM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 12:50 PM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
I'd agree not enough info yet to know much for sure. But to the why now question? Because of exponential growth and that they keep opening more and more and people get looser and looser. So not so much just two weeks after someone gets it, but then the 2-4 people they infect who infect 2-4 more and so and so and so on. That takes time to build up. As you just said though, spikes were always gonna happen. When you identify some like it seems in a few states, well then address it like they seem to be doing. Still holding out hope here that this data is still early enough and levels off but as days go by I'm getting less optimistic on that.

Our trends and comps to Europe look so much worse though, no way around that data I can come up with.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 1:08 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 8826
What exactly are we trying to accomplish right now? I haven't heard "flatten the curve" in months. It seems like there is no clear end game here and everyone's opinion of how things are going is dictated by their own politics.


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 1:11 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 9395
Fear The Chorizo said:
Doesn't this require the assumption that that liver transplant patient wouldn't be at a high risk of COVID complications/ICU needs because of that very underlying condition?

Potentially, but if you're an alcoholic who needs a new liver and the only reason you became aware you have COVID is because the hospital tested you for it prior to a procedure, I wouldn't consider them any higher risk of requiring an ICU bed than if they tested negative for COVID. A liver transplant, heart surgery, other major procedure patient is going to require an ICU bed no matter what - if they are an asymptomatic positive COVID case they likely take up a bed in a portion of the hospital established for COVID patients to reduce spread. They aren't in ICU because of COVID, they are recovering from a major surgery.


Sorry, I think you're very much missing my point: If a person who needs a heart transplant shows up at an ER and tests positive for COVID, they're not there to get the heart transplant, they're there because they're showing serious symptoms of the COVID.

Knee replacement? Sure. But people with underlying conditions needing major medical procedures aren't showing up to the hospital not knowing they have COVID....


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 1:17 PM Post
Posts: 5206
Our trends and comps to Europe look so much worse though, no way around that data I can come up with.

Look at confirmed case fatality rate - the US sits between Liberia and Indonesia, 31st in the world despite having by far the most confirmed COVID-related deaths. European nations are all over the top 10-20 countries in that stat, because aside from Germany they really haven't widely expanded their testing to the degree the United States has.

The case count spike seen in parts of the US is tied directly to testing people 50 yrs and under as part of a widescale return to work initiative over the past month-6 weeks. With the exception of Germany, european countries really haven't embarked on wide scale testing for their younger populations, particularly on a per capita basis.

It's easy to keep case counts from spiking when you don't bother testing...Austria sure has it down

https://news.yahoo.com/almost-half-virus-hit-austria-ski-resort-antibodies-165114333.html


 Top
 
Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 1:33 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 9395
FVBrewerFan said:
Pretty simple, many more young people getting tested in some of these states. Positives go up, but death rates way down. Which is all that really matters.

As far as when/ how states have opened there is no correlation between that and case spikes. Those states opened two months ago, and just recently saw AZ, TX, FL rise in cases. Why now? Why haven't all states experienced this trend? Because there is no correlation. No matter what states do, we will see hot spots pop up. That's not unexpected.


This seems like a hard rationale to accept. Those three states specifically have three things in common: limited restrictions in the early stages or slow to shut down, early re-openings, and a populace that has struggled to socially distance.


 Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1 ... 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 ... 100  Next  [ 1989 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: RobertR and 10 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test