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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 1:57 PM Post
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Curious about the return to work initiative testing that I've seen mentioned a couple of times. It does seem that a lot of the new cases are skewing younger, but in Wisconsin at least, those have largely been linked to college-aged students attending crowded bars. If that is indeed the case, they'd only be testing positive because they're exhibiting symptoms and feel the need to be treated.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 2:32 PM Post
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Tons to unpack in this tweet thread below and I don't necessarily agree with all points attempted to be made...but pretty interesting nonetheless when looking for reasons/factors for case spikes and hospitalizations climbing among COVID-infected people in the US.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1276494896132534277.html


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 2:38 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Curious about the return to work initiative testing that I've seen mentioned a couple of times. It does seem that a lot of the new cases are skewing younger, but in Wisconsin at least, those have largely been linked to college-aged students attending crowded bars. If that is indeed the case, they'd only be testing positive because they're exhibiting symptoms and feel the need to be treated.


Or its those same kids needing to be tested for summer jobs at bars/restaurants/service companies that have personal interaction with clientele, or contact tracing actually prompted them to get tested - exhibiting symptoms is no longer a requirement for getting tested for COVID for anyone, including youngsters.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 2:43 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
PeaveyFury said:
Curious about the return to work initiative testing that I've seen mentioned a couple of times. It does seem that a lot of the new cases are skewing younger, but in Wisconsin at least, those have largely been linked to college-aged students attending crowded bars. If that is indeed the case, they'd only be testing positive because they're exhibiting symptoms and feel the need to be treated.


Or its those same kids needing to be tested for summer jobs at bars/restaurants/service companies that have personal interaction with clientele, or contact tracing actually prompted them to get tested - exhibiting symptoms is no longer a requirement for getting tested for COVID for anyone, including youngsters.


This may be accurate elsewhere, but I'm virtually certain it's not accurate in Wisconsin. To be tested even at the National Guard sites, you have to have potential exposure to a case or be exhibiting symptoms.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 2:51 PM Post
Posts: 5206
Fever or chills
Cough
Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
Fatigue
Muscle or body aches
Headache
New loss of taste or smell
Sore throat
Congestion or runny nose
Nausea or vomiting
Diarrhea

These are the current list of COVID symptoms...I can check at least 3 of these off daily depending on what mood my kiddos are in;). Right now if a person wants or needs to get tested, they can get tested if they do even a little digging no matter what state they live in.

It's also not very difficult to drum up a "potential exposure" situation either - and anecdotally I know my company has had back to work testing requirements for employees performing work at jobsites that requires out of town travel or potential exposures to either individuals or locations that knowingly had COVID. I've been tested 5 times myself since early May and they were entirely due to work-related project requirements.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:00 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
These are the current list of COVID symptoms...I can check at least 3 of these off daily. It's also not very difficult to drum up a "potential exposure" situation either - and anecdotally I know my company has had back to work testing requirements for employees performing work at jobsites that requires out of town travel. I've been tested 5 times myself since early May and they were entirely due to work-related project requirements.


I find a thesis of hundreds of college-aged kids choosing for no apparent reason to "drum up" a scenario where they have a potential exposure to get tested for COVID somewhat hard to accept. Far more likely that they're tested because they showed up at the Dr. with symptoms or went to a community testing site because they felt they needed to, right?


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 98
PeaveyFury said:
But wasn't the narrative just a couple of weeks ago that the 'peak' in states like Minnesota happened around Memorial Day? Clearly, that wasn't actually the case and it has proven false.


Why do you think this? The data I'm seeing show that it's pretty clearly 'peaked' around Memorial Day. Off of the state website (https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases ... ation.html)

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:15 PM Post
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Machu Peach said:
PeaveyFury said:
But wasn't the narrative just a couple of weeks ago that the 'peak' in states like Minnesota happened around Memorial Day? Clearly, that wasn't actually the case and it has proven false.


Why do you think this? The data I'm seeing show that it's pretty clearly 'peaked' around Memorial Day.


I think your point is fair- death rates have declined, hospitalizations have steadied, though still at a fairly high rate vs. even the heart of the early onset and quarantine in April. I think the idea that the certainty that the 'peak' has happened considering that was the assumption elsewhere until the last two weeks is problematic.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:16 PM Post
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I understand that there's a unstated reason why some are focusing so hard on AZ, TX, and FL, but CA is experiencing a similar increase in new infections. It would be good not to ignore it when attempting to determine the cause of the increase.

CA state website (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID- ... VizHome=no)

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:22 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Machu Peach said:
PeaveyFury said:
But wasn't the narrative just a couple of weeks ago that the 'peak' in states like Minnesota happened around Memorial Day? Clearly, that wasn't actually the case and it has proven false.


Why do you think this? The data I'm seeing show that it's pretty clearly 'peaked' around Memorial Day.


I think your point is fair- death rates have declined, hospitalizations have steadied, though still at a fairly high rate vs. even the heart of the early onset and quarantine in April. I think the idea that the certainty that the 'peak' has happened considering that was the assumption elsewhere until the last two weeks is problematic.


Non-ICU hospitalizations have decreased by 50% and ICU hospitalizations have decreased by 40% since 'around Memorial Day'. To say that they are 'steadied' is disingenuous.

Also, you specified Minnesota not 'elsewhere', so I provided data on Minnesota.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:38 PM Post
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Machu Peach said:
Non-ICU hospitalizations have decreased by 50% and ICU hospitalizations have decreased by 40% since 'around Memorial Day'. To say that they are 'steadied' is disingenuous.


Hospitalizations have been flat for nearly two weeks, so implying that they're on a steady decline would also be disingenuous. By 'stabilizing', I was referring to the flat, fairly consistent nature of the data recently.

Also, if you're curious about why AZ, TX, FL were singled out previously, I'd encourage you to read further back in the thread for further clarification.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:44 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Pretty simple, many more young people getting tested in some of these states. Positives go up, but death rates way down. Which is all that really matters.

As far as when/ how states have opened there is no correlation between that and case spikes. Those states opened two months ago, and just recently saw AZ, TX, FL rise in cases. Why now? Why haven't all states experienced this trend? Because there is no correlation. No matter what states do, we will see hot spots pop up. That's not unexpected.


Maybe because those states are miserably hot now and people were actually outside 2 months ago?


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 26, 2020, 3:53 PM Post
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Hear me out in this to stop the spread of COVID we should just build a bunch of human sized hamster balls. If you need to go anywhere you just get in the hamster ball and walk around. Think of it it would cure COVID and diabetes! You could even have these arm sockets that could be made of plastic rubbery stuff and you could grab things with them.

PURE GENIOUS RIGHT HERE!!!!!! You can thank me later!


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 27, 2020, 6:07 AM Post
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The bars seem to be the biggest vector for the resurgence. Which I think makes logical sense.

That, to me, is the low hanging fruit to concentrate on. And, maybe something that there's common ground to do something about, pass some sort of bill to financially shore up the bars so that they can reopen when safer, crack down on ones that aren't enforcing social distancing, and see if that helps. It beats shutting down large swathes of the economy.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 27, 2020, 9:02 AM Post
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Machu Peach said:
I understand that there's a unstated reason why some are focusing so hard on AZ, TX, and FL, but CA is experiencing a similar increase in new infections. It would be good not to ignore it when attempting to determine the cause of the increase.

CA state website (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID- ... VizHome=no)


Yes, CA is also experiencing a big spike in cases. As is North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc...methinks it's weather-related.

The good news is the fatality rate is dropping. Apparently the spike is caused by younger people who are less likely to die. But it has also caused a big spike in hospitalizations in many of the above states. Will it get to the point where they reach bed/resource capacity? Remains to be seen.

My fear is that this thing is going to go bonkers again up north come late October.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 27, 2020, 11:06 AM Post
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nate82 said:
Hear me out in this to stop the spread of COVID we should just build a bunch of human sized hamster balls. If you need to go anywhere you just get in the hamster ball and walk around. Think of it it would cure COVID and diabetes! You could even have these arm sockets that could be made of plastic rubbery stuff and you could grab things with them.

PURE GENIOUS RIGHT HERE!!!!!! You can thank me later!

COVID WOAH SOLVDD

Remember: the Brewers never panic like you do.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 27, 2020, 3:55 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
homer said:
Machu Peach said:
I understand that there's a unstated reason why some are focusing so hard on AZ, TX, and FL, but CA is experiencing a similar increase in new infections. It would be good not to ignore it when attempting to determine the cause of the increase.

CA state website (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID- ... VizHome=no)


Yes, CA is also experiencing a big spike in cases. As is North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc...methinks it's weather-related.

The good news is the fatality rate is dropping. Apparently the spike is caused by younger people who are less likely to die. But it has also caused a big spike in hospitalizations in many of the above states. Will it get to the point where they reach bed/resource capacity? Remains to be seen.

My fear is that this thing is going to go bonkers again up north come late October.


Hypothesis: Warmer weather states will have higher COVID transmission during the summer months while having lower transmission rates during the winter months. The reverse will happen in the colder weather states.

This maybe the new norm or how this virus will work.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 28, 2020, 11:28 AM Post
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nate82 said:
homer said:
Machu Peach said:
I understand that there's a unstated reason why some are focusing so hard on AZ, TX, and FL, but CA is experiencing a similar increase in new infections. It would be good not to ignore it when attempting to determine the cause of the increase.

CA state website (https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID- ... VizHome=no)


Yes, CA is also experiencing a big spike in cases. As is North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Alabama, etc...methinks it's weather-related.

The good news is the fatality rate is dropping. Apparently the spike is caused by younger people who are less likely to die. But it has also caused a big spike in hospitalizations in many of the above states. Will it get to the point where they reach bed/resource capacity? Remains to be seen.

My fear is that this thing is going to go bonkers again up north come late October.


Hypothesis: Warmer weather states will have higher COVID transmission during the summer months while having lower transmission rates during the winter months. The reverse will happen in the colder weather states.

This maybe the new norm or how this virus will work.



Keep thinking about the weather angle. Is there another country with a similar latitude range like the US has? So is there somewhere else where it's cold/hot in March April in one half of the country and then really warm/cold come June/July in the other half? Looking at a map I guess China fits that description. In the southern hemisphere, I guess Argentina? Chile? Obviously there might be trade winds or something that skews it.

OWBC can you help me out?

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 28, 2020, 12:08 PM Post
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The spike in California (at least SoCal) seems to be driven mostly by rural and suburban counties:

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... alizations

LA county has some troubling numbers as well. However, don't try to attribute this all to hot weather...it's actually fairly cool in the coastal regions right now; we frequently have a marine layer this time of year sometimes known as 'June gloom' and this year has been particularly cool and grey. On the other hand, anti-mask sentiments in some communities are on the rise, with these stupid get out of mask free cards for example. My friend in Orange County had a guy yell at him at a stop light about wearing a mask (he had just dropped his kid off).

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... alizations


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 28, 2020, 12:11 PM Post
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Yeah I am not sure it's 100% attributable to temperature. There are certainly a variety of factors.

Although I would say that Riverside and San Bernadino typically run hotter at this time of year than LA.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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