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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 30, 2020, 12:39 PM Post
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A lot of the success in Sweden has been attributed to the populace adhering to strict social distancing rules, despite the non-shutdown. Not sure if current data still supports that, but it was the belief a few weeks ago.

As the 'mask/no-mask' debate certainly shows, the US certainly hasn't been able to maintain that adherence since the quarantine was lifted....


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 30, 2020, 8:06 PM Post
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I'm not sure I'd call Sweden a success just yet. Compare them to their neighbors Norway and Finland. Sweden has a massively higher death rate and they are nowhere near herd immunity (last I read they were at 6.1% in late May). Of course, if this thing ramps up again in the fall/winter maybe they will be but I think they have a really long way to go.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 30, 2020, 8:22 PM Post
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All of the data for all of the states and countries reporting, plus projections:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Interesting that even with the recent spikes, they are not projecting the daily total number of deaths to rise for the next couple of weeks.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: June 30, 2020, 9:58 PM Post
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homer said:
I'm not sure I'd call Sweden a success just yet. Compare them to their neighbors Norway and Finland. Sweden has a massively higher death rate and they are nowhere near herd immunity (last I read they were at 6.1% in late May). Of course, if this thing ramps up again in the fall/winter maybe they will be but I think they have a really long way to go.


Sweden currently at 521.45 deaths per million, 5th highest worldwde behind Belgium, UK, Italy & Spain.

Whatever Finland (59.44 deaths per million) & Norway (46.85 deaths per million) did definitely seems to have saved more lives.

USA currently at 385.05 deaths per million, 7th highest...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 01, 2020, 10:29 AM Post
Posts: 2302
Location: Madison, WI
Actually pretty surprised at some of the wording on the Department of Health's website in regards to the masks-

There may be a benefit to reducing asymptomatic transmission and reinforcing physical distancing from the use of face covers. However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

Wearing a cloth face cover may be beneficial as it may help to protect others from germs you may be spreading without knowing it.

There is limited evidence to suggest that use of cloth face coverings by the public during a pandemic could help reduce disease transmission. Their primary role is to reduce the release of infectious particles into the air when someone speaks, coughs, or sneezes, including someone who has COVID-19 but feels well.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/protect.htm
Scroll to bottom of page and click the "Should I Wear a Cloth Mask?" link.

I wonder how long it will be until the powers-that-be come down on Palm and Evers and get this language changed. "May increase risk." "May be beneficial as it may." "Limited evidence." Don't they know that the face mask concept will get businesses open and get us revenue....oh, ahh, wait...we mean SAVE THE WORLD! They are not following the narrative!

Pretty sick of the latest wave of media fear-mongering. Yes, it's gone crazy in the south, so crazy that we now have 2.7 million confirmed cases in a country with a population over 331 million (look out now, we are 80% of the way to a whopping 1% of the population being infected).


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 01, 2020, 10:40 AM Post
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JosephC said:
Actually pretty surprised at some of the wording on the Department of Health's website in regards to the masks-

There may be a benefit to reducing asymptomatic transmission and reinforcing physical distancing from the use of face covers. However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

Wearing a cloth face cover may be beneficial as it may help to protect others from germs you may be spreading without knowing it.

There is limited evidence to suggest that use of cloth face coverings by the public during a pandemic could help reduce disease transmission. Their primary role is to reduce the release of infectious particles into the air when someone speaks, coughs, or sneezes, including someone who has COVID-19 but feels well.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/protect.htm
Scroll to bottom of page and click the "Should I Wear a Cloth Mask?" link.

I wonder how long it will be until the powers-that-be come down on Palm and Evers and get this language changed. "May increase risk." "May be beneficial as it may." "Limited evidence." Don't they know that the face mask concept will get businesses open and get us revenue....oh, ahh, wait...we mean SAVE THE WORLD! They are not following the narrative!

Pretty sick of the latest wave of media fear-mongering. Yes, it's gone crazy in the south, so crazy that we now have 2.7 million confirmed cases in a country with a population over 331 million (look out now, we are 80% of the way to a whopping 1% of the population being infected).


What part of exponential growth do you not understand?

I'm not seeing what is wrong with those recommendations. They seem consistent with the reasoning behind wearing masks. Masks do not stop COVID from spreading (duh). Masks do not replace social distancing (duh). These precautions can not completely prevent the spread of COVID (duh).

I have felt terrible for essential employees who have to deal with customers/clients not taking precautions seriously, so I'm glad that government/businesses are finally stepping up and enforcing masks.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 01, 2020, 7:39 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Actually pretty surprised at some of the wording on the Department of Health's website in regards to the masks-

There may be a benefit to reducing asymptomatic transmission and reinforcing physical distancing from the use of face covers. However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

Wearing a cloth face cover may be beneficial as it may help to protect others from germs you may be spreading without knowing it.

There is limited evidence to suggest that use of cloth face coverings by the public during a pandemic could help reduce disease transmission. Their primary role is to reduce the release of infectious particles into the air when someone speaks, coughs, or sneezes, including someone who has COVID-19 but feels well.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/protect.htm
Scroll to bottom of page and click the "Should I Wear a Cloth Mask?" link.

I wonder how long it will be until the powers-that-be come down on Palm and Evers and get this language changed. "May increase risk." "May be beneficial as it may." "Limited evidence." Don't they know that the face mask concept will get businesses open and get us revenue....oh, ahh, wait...we mean SAVE THE WORLD! They are not following the narrative!

Pretty sick of the latest wave of media fear-mongering. Yes, it's gone crazy in the south, so crazy that we now have 2.7 million confirmed cases in a country with a population over 331 million (look out now, we are 80% of the way to a whopping 1% of the population being infected).

I dont see any issues with these statements. The first one is saying it wont be much help if you feel like the mask is enough. The second one is saying it could help others from catching it from you if you are unknowingly sick, but it's not guaranteed. And the third statement is, I'm assuming, talking about how while a cloth mask isnt medical grade so it may not do much, but it should stop, or at least greatly reduce, the water particles that could contain the virus. None of these statements are contradictory.

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 01, 2020, 10:57 PM Post
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Interesting article "How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus" from the Wall Street Journal. They say that the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Poor ventilation, crowded rooms, people talking (or singing) loudly maximize the risk.

This means places like gyms, parties, conferences, churches, etc., are big hot spots.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-exactl ... S5ZbFzwKN8

It's an interesting read.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 8:44 AM Post
Posts: 5153
reillymcshane said:
Interesting article "How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus" from the Wall Street Journal. They say that the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Poor ventilation, crowded rooms, people talking (or singing) loudly maximize the risk.

This means places like gyms, parties, conferences, churches, etc., are big hot spots.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-exactl ... S5ZbFzwKN8

It's an interesting read.


Hasn't this pretty much been known for months by now?

One other item of note related to masks, as google has done a masterful job of slapping a bunch of ads on pages I've been on related to buying masks - if you see anyone walking around with any type of face covering that has those one-way filter valves built in, run away from them faster than people with no mask at all. Those one way valves filter air that person is breathing in, but almost all of those filters aren't tight enough to prevent aerosols and other fine particles viruses may be latched onto from being inhaled. Then those same valves serve as concentrated exhaust ports for exhaled air/mist/droplets/etc that get spewed much farther out than someone just normally breathing from an unobstructed mouth or nose. For a general contractor working on a drywall project that doesn't want to inhale potential asbestos-containing material or other dust, they work great. For John Doe waltzing through the general public with a false sense of security, they turn him into a superspreader.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 5328
Location: Madison, WI
It's really hard to believe after this long and these numbers (considering all the precautions we've done, think what it would be without) that so many people are still so dug in on it being overblown media hype bs. This viewpoint is continued to be proven wrong every step of the way going back to February and it still continues on. I guess nothing should surprise anymore, but at some point you'd think people would accept it was way more than they thought it would be and just listen to take it serious.

I'd even concede they're generally right in the view how negative headlines get clicks and that's overdone, but that by no means makes this not a hugely serious situation. Spitballing, let's say this is an 8 on a scale of 10 for level of badness (which is pretty high of course). Just because "the media" makes it out to be a 9 instead does not mean 8 still isn't a big deal.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 9:42 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
It's really hard to believe after this long and these numbers (considering all the precautions we've done, think what it would be without) that so many people are still so dug in on it being overblown media hype bs. This viewpoint is continued to be proven wrong every step of the way going back to February and it still continues on. I guess nothing should surprise anymore, but at some point you'd think people would accept it was way more than they thought it would be and just listen to take it serious.

I'd even concede they're generally right in the view how negative headlines get clicks and that's overdone, but that by no means makes this not a hugely serious situation. Spitballing, let's say this is an 8 on a scale of 10 for level of badness (which is pretty high of course). Just because "the media" makes it out to be a 9 instead does not mean 8 still isn't a big deal.


It's turned into a victim complex with most of the people who continue to deny the seriousness of this thing. Any sort of precaution or quarantine recommendation is automatically deemed as an attack on their freedoms, so to support their argument, they dig up information that points to the pandemic being either politicized or overblown. It is an extremely selfish and egotistical point of view, in my opinion. As an aside, I have seen people on both sides of the political spectrum that hold this type of viewpoint.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 10:08 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
One other item of note related to masks, as google has done a masterful job of slapping a bunch of ads on pages I've been on related to buying masks - if you see anyone walking around with any type of face covering that has those one-way filter valves built in, run away from them faster than people with no mask at all. Those one way valves filter air that person is breathing in, but almost all of those filters aren't tight enough to prevent aerosols and other fine particles viruses may be latched onto from being inhaled. Then those same valves serve as concentrated exhaust ports for exhaled air/mist/droplets/etc that get spewed much farther out than someone just normally breathing from an unobstructed mouth or nose. For a general contractor working on a drywall project that doesn't want to inhale potential asbestos-containing material or other dust, they work great. For John Doe waltzing through the general public with a false sense of security, they turn him into a superspreader.

Can you share data/research that supports this?

From what I've seen, the PM2.5 filter that is inside of them covers the entire face covering, and it does not seem possible for air to not go through the filter whether they are inhaling or exhaling. Also, the vent is on the side of the face, not in front of the mouth/nose where someone is breathing/speaking - it's on the side of their mouth where very few droplets are going out. A vast majority of droplets are going into the cloth in front of the mouth/nose. I find it really, really hard to believe that they are not at least 90% as effective as a non-filtered masks.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 10:10 AM Post
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reillymcshane said:
Interesting article "How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus" from the Wall Street Journal. They say that the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Poor ventilation, crowded rooms, people talking (or singing) loudly maximize the risk.

This means places like gyms, parties, conferences, churches, etc., are big hot spots.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-exactl ... S5ZbFzwKN8

It's an interesting read.

Well, the contact tracing has shown much of the spread to be coming from bars and graduation parties. Supposedly 50% is from people under 30.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 10:28 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
reillymcshane said:
Interesting article "How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus" from the Wall Street Journal. They say that the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Poor ventilation, crowded rooms, people talking (or singing) loudly maximize the risk.

This means places like gyms, parties, conferences, churches, etc., are big hot spots.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-exactl ... S5ZbFzwKN8

It's an interesting read.

Well, the contact tracing has shown much of the spread to be coming from bars and graduation parties. Supposedly 50% is from people under 30.


Which also explains why the percentage of hospitalizations is decreasing. Younger people are typically showing fewer symptoms, and have the immune systems to fight off serious issues for the most part. That isn't stopping the "COVID isn't a big deal" crowd from pointing to those hospitalization numbers to support their argument, though.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 10:32 AM Post
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Are you using nationwide data for decreased hospitalizations?

I would like to find data that excludes NY and NJ as they seem to be big outliers.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 10:35 AM Post
Posts: 2302
Location: Madison, WI
young guns said:
JosephC said:
Actually pretty surprised at some of the wording on the Department of Health's website in regards to the masks-

There may be a benefit to reducing asymptomatic transmission and reinforcing physical distancing from the use of face covers. However, face coverings may increase risk if users reduce their use of strong defenses, such as physical distancing and frequent hand washing, when using cloth face coverings.

Wearing a cloth face cover may be beneficial as it may help to protect others from germs you may be spreading without knowing it.

There is limited evidence to suggest that use of cloth face coverings by the public during a pandemic could help reduce disease transmission. Their primary role is to reduce the release of infectious particles into the air when someone speaks, coughs, or sneezes, including someone who has COVID-19 but feels well.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/protect.htm
Scroll to bottom of page and click the "Should I Wear a Cloth Mask?" link.

I wonder how long it will be until the powers-that-be come down on Palm and Evers and get this language changed. "May increase risk." "May be beneficial as it may." "Limited evidence." Don't they know that the face mask concept will get businesses open and get us revenue....oh, ahh, wait...we mean SAVE THE WORLD! They are not following the narrative!

Pretty sick of the latest wave of media fear-mongering. Yes, it's gone crazy in the south, so crazy that we now have 2.7 million confirmed cases in a country with a population over 331 million (look out now, we are 80% of the way to a whopping 1% of the population being infected).

I dont see any issues with these statements. The first one is saying it wont be much help if you feel like the mask is enough. The second one is saying it could help others from catching it from you if you are unknowingly sick, but it's not guaranteed. And the third statement is, I'm assuming, talking about how while a cloth mask isnt medical grade so it may not do much, but it should stop, or at least greatly reduce, the water particles that could contain the virus. None of these statements are contradictory.


There is nothing wrong with these statements. I applaud Palm and Evers for having this on the Department of Health's website. Why is the majority of the media completely ignoring statements like "may be beneficial as it may" "limited evidence" and most importantly "may increase risk?" and running wild with the mask narrative after the government told them for months that masks have no benefit.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 10:37 AM Post
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homer said:
Are you using nationwide data for decreased hospitalizations?

I would like to find data that excludes NY and NJ as they seem to be big outliers.


I was just looking at Wisconsin's numbers.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 11:47 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
homer said:
Are you using nationwide data for decreased hospitalizations?

I would like to find data that excludes NY and NJ as they seem to be big outliers.


I was just looking at Wisconsin's numbers.


Ah, gotcha.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 11:53 AM Post
Posts: 5328
Location: Madison, WI
I want to say as of like 3ish days ago something like 16 states had been showing an increase in week over week hospitalizations, and the 3-4 main talked about hotspots were significant percents. I'd guess % of positive cases that end in hospitalizations are lower now though, but I've never seen that stat used anywhere. It's just logical they'd be finding way more mild cases now than 2-3 months ago.

I'd guess that's the one big positive to hope for right now though is that not nearly as many deaths come from this new surge due to that point. Each day that goes by makes me less optimistic though. And still at the numbers of infections going on it still seems the total number will be bad. As in, even if the %s are way better than the initial run (due to finding more mild cases and likely that we're protecting older people better now) at these total numbers (and likely more exponential growth coming) there will still be large total numbers involved to burden some medical systems and still a large number of deaths that most people aren't comfortable with seeing.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 02, 2020, 12:13 PM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
I want to say as of like 3ish days ago something like 16 states had been showing an increase in week over week hospitalizations, and the 3-4 main talked about hotspots were significant percents. I'd guess % of positive cases that end in hospitalizations are lower now though, but I've never seen that stat used anywhere. It's just logical they'd be finding way more mild cases now than 2-3 months ago.

I'd guess that's the one big positive to hope for right now though is that not nearly as many deaths come from this new surge due to that point. Each day that goes by makes me less optimistic though. And still at the numbers of infections going on it still seems the total number will be bad. As in, even if the %s are way better than the initial run (due to finding more mild cases and likely that we're protecting older people better now) at these total numbers (and likely more exponential growth coming) there will still be large total numbers involved to burden some medical systems and still a large number of deaths that most people aren't comfortable with seeing.


The % positive cases that ends in hospitalizations over time would be a great stat to see.

It's obvious the overall fatality rate is going down (even excluding NY/NJ) most likely due to the lowered age of the infected and a majority of the rest of society probably being very cautious. I realize death is a lagging indicator but I'm hopeful it doesn't spike too much even in the areas where we are seeing a big jump in cases. I'm very confident it won't get up to NY/NJ levels.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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