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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 6:51 AM Post
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Posts: 9395
superfly said:
Fauci in particular is in big pharmas pocket.


I'm certain that most of us here are eager to see your supporting information on that point.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 7:28 AM Post
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If you're going to post opinions stated as facts it seems like one would have links and information to back those sorts of things up. IMO of course.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 9:48 AM Post
Posts: 2323
Location: Madison, WI
Looks like we should be seeing a big, big spike in the UK.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... sures.html


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 10:02 AM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Have seen the recent talking point is how deaths haven't spiked yet. I think I said a few pages back too which we're all hoping holds true for a number of reasons such as old people better protected now, earlier testing to catch cases, finding more mild cases, better treatment, etc. There is a lot of reasons this should not go up near the rates of before. But, with the hospitalizations going up in many places you'd think some increase comes soon. Hopefully it's not drastic though. If it is I'm sure everyone pushing that talking point now will quickly acknowledge.

but it did lead me down a hole trying to find EU comps on deaths per day now and I couldn't find it. As opposed to the New Cases graphs of EU vs USA that have been everywhere lately, so it was kind of frustrating and I thought odd so it made me curious if something was up trying to make us look bad. So I just grabbed France/Germany as bigger wealthier countries and kind of the flagships of Europe. France had 18 deaths on the 3rd. they're roughly 5x smaller than us so equivalent of 100 here. Germany had 9 on the 3rd, they're roughly 4x smaller, so equivalent of 36. I did not look at any other countries so I did not cherry pick good numbers (or bad, IDK how they comp to other europe countries). USA had 660 on the 3rd. So keep that in mind if/when you hear this narrative pushed this week. The narrative seems to essentially be trying to normalize setting a low bar and normalizing our comparatively high deaths. Of course one would think this continues to widen with how many more new cases we're getting than EU. If someone has whole EU graph or numbers feel free to add, I could not find it.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 11:20 AM Post
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Anyone else just feel "done"? As in, just resigned to the fact that this will be around probably for the next 18-24 months? And that there is really nothing that will be done about it? "Will" being the key word. I'm sure if everyone locked up for a few months it would make a huge difference but from a realistic perspective I just feel like it's clear now that this will run rampant through at least the end of the year and continue to just be an annoying PITA for school, work, entertainment, etc. It sucks. I just feel defeated by all of it and a real sense of depression. I checked out of the news about a month ago, but it just feels like a never-ending 'wait and see' game.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 11:30 AM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Yea sure seems that way to me as well. I said something yesterday along the lines of how everyday just seems the same as the last(discussion about how it didn't feel like the 4th and how surprising it's July already), which kind of gave me the vibe you're describing there. This is really going to really hit people in the face again if they shut down schools

Also, not sure I've seen the PITA acronym used before, not surprising I picked it up quickly haha.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 11:40 AM Post
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Posts: 8826
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Anyone else just feel "done"? As in, just resigned to the fact that this will be around probably for the next 18-24 months? And that there is really nothing that will be done about it? "Will" being the key word. I'm sure if everyone locked up for a few months it would make a huge difference but from a realistic perspective I just feel like it's clear now that this will run rampant through at least the end of the year and continue to just be an annoying PITA for school, work, entertainment, etc. It sucks. I just feel defeated by all of it and a real sense of depression. I checked out of the news about a month ago, but it just feels like a never-ending 'wait and see' game.


I've felt that from the beginning. This thing isn't going away until there's a vaccine or an effective treatment. All the lockdowns, masks, etc. are just like the Dutch boy putting his finger in a hole in the dike. It seems like it's helping but it's not going to stop the flood that's coming unless someone fixes all the holes.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 11:49 AM Post
Posts: 5206
tmwiese55 said:
Have seen the recent talking point is how deaths haven't spiked yet. I think I said a few pages back too which we're all hoping holds true for a number of reasons such as old people better protected now, earlier testing to catch cases, finding more mild cases, better treatment, etc. There is a lot of reasons this should not go up near the rates of before. But, with the hospitalizations going up in many places you'd think some increase comes soon. Hopefully it's not drastic though. If it is I'm sure everyone pushing that talking point now will quickly acknowledge.

but it did lead me down a hole trying to find EU comps on deaths per day now and I couldn't find it. As opposed to the New Cases graphs of EU vs USA that have been everywhere lately, so it was kind of frustrating and I thought odd so it made me curious if something was up trying to make us look bad. So I just grabbed France/Germany as bigger wealthier countries and kind of the flagships of Europe. France had 18 deaths on the 3rd. they're roughly 5x smaller than us so equivalent of 100 here. Germany had 9 on the 3rd, they're roughly 4x smaller, so equivalent of 36. I did not look at any other countries so I did not cherry pick good numbers (or bad, IDK how they comp to other europe countries). USA had 660 on the 3rd. So keep that in mind if/when you hear this narrative pushed this week. The narrative seems to essentially be trying to normalize setting a low bar and normalizing our comparatively high deaths. Of course one would think this continues to widen with how many more new cases we're getting than EU. If someone has whole EU graph or numbers feel free to add, I could not find it.


Keep in mind the initial significant outbreak occurred across Europe roughly 3-4 weeks before it happened in the US. So their daily death tallies on a per capita basis right now would reflect where the US may be in a month's time. Also keep in mind the testing per 1,000 people was 1.92 in the US in early July - for Germany (Europe's gold standard for high volume testing) it's roughly 0.8 and for France, well they stopped really testing significantly at the end of April when they were around 0.23 tests/thousand - or at least providing testing data consistently since then. Factor in how differently various countries/regions report COVID deaths/hospitalizations/cases, and it's really easy to see how pointless it is trying to compare any of these datasets that are so dissimilarly constructed. Despite all that, the overall US death curve is trending similarly to that of the European continent's curve, just that it's lagging by a few weeks.

What will be very interesting is seeing whether a second spike in actual COVID-related deaths crops up in the US that mirrors this surge in cases - with the prolonged increase to hospitalizations in several states one would think we'd be seeing that by now, but it hasn't really materialized. I'd also caution looking at specific daily US death tallies for this whole week and let the rolling averages level things out before making an educated guess - the 3 day holiday weekend is going to play games with reporting schedules...my gut tells me we won't necessarily see a big increase in nationwide deaths, but we'll see a prolonged length of several hundred daily deaths before it bottoms further out as other metro areas work their way through hot spots and surges - but without throwing infected patients back into nursing homes. New York state was seeing close to 750 people die per day with COVID-19 complications back in early April. I also think this perceived spike in cases across the US has more to do with the fact the confirmed cases from the initial spike in places like New York, Chicago, Boston, and other metro areas we observed back in March/April was many times less than actual infections due to a fraction of the testing being conducted.

Europe has essentially discounted the value of PCR testing more of their population as their death rate has gradually declined and as they have reopened things. The US continues to increase testing - particularly PCR "snapshot" COVID-19 tests...that's fine, but I'd really wish they and the rest of the world shift into more of an antibody testing program to track the percentage of people who have already gotten infected and processed the virus. Right now there's probably limited appetite from a pharmaceutical standpoint for that data, as increasing evidence of herd immunity winning the race against an initial vaccine that "might" be 50% effective and a virus that appears to be weakening in terms of symtpoms/lethality over time could render a large scale vaccine push pointless from a global health perspective. Even if that's the case, there's value in developing a vaccine for coronavirus all the way through compared to what they did with SARS - doing so at minimum gives scientists a better jumping off point for the next similar virus.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 11:57 AM Post
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Posts: 6161
jerichoholicninja said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Anyone else just feel "done"? As in, just resigned to the fact that this will be around probably for the next 18-24 months? And that there is really nothing that will be done about it? "Will" being the key word. I'm sure if everyone locked up for a few months it would make a huge difference but from a realistic perspective I just feel like it's clear now that this will run rampant through at least the end of the year and continue to just be an annoying PITA for school, work, entertainment, etc. It sucks. I just feel defeated by all of it and a real sense of depression. I checked out of the news about a month ago, but it just feels like a never-ending 'wait and see' game.


I've felt that from the beginning. This thing isn't going away until there's a vaccine or an effective treatment. All the lockdowns, masks, etc. are just like the Dutch boy putting his finger in a hole in the dike. It seems like it's helping but it's not going to stop the flood that's coming unless someone fixes all the holes.


I don't think the vaccine would even do what most people seem to think. It would still be months, guessing like at least six or so, after that point. A ton of people would refuse it, then there's still a huge accessibility issue. The vaccine might mark the beginning of the end but that's about it.

I'm really having doubts about a trip to Japan I have planned for April. Boohoo, I know, but not long ago I was certain that would be ok.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 1:01 PM Post
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The Weatherman
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Posts: 6818
OldSchoolSnapper said:
Anyone else just feel "done"? As in, just resigned to the fact that this will be around probably for the next 18-24 months? And that there is really nothing that will be done about it? "Will" being the key word. I'm sure if everyone locked up for a few months it would make a huge difference but from a realistic perspective I just feel like it's clear now that this will run rampant through at least the end of the year and continue to just be an annoying PITA for school, work, entertainment, etc. It sucks. I just feel defeated by all of it and a real sense of depression. I checked out of the news about a month ago, but it just feels like a never-ending 'wait and see' game.


It's basically a new normal but with the underlying knowledge that we're on borrowed time...my employer is bleeding money like crazy. Almost every industry that isn't tech is bleeding cash. I don't think people realize how big of a disaster it's going to be when kids can't return to school this fall. It feels like the other shoe hasn't dropped yet.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 2:15 PM Post
Posts: 8982
Yea, I think that's why some of us fro the beginning said we have to get back to normal as much as possible once we went through the initial flatten the curve. I've always had the feeling it would be around indefinitely. We can't lock down emotionally, medically, or economically for a year or two...or longer.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 2:34 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
Yea, I think that's why some of us fro the beginning said we have to get back to normal as much as possible once we went through the initial flatten the curve. I've always had the feeling it would be around indefinitely. We can't lock down emotionally, medically, or economically for a year or two...or longer.


Wait, you think we're doing the correct thing by having our case count the way it is compared with other countries?


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 2:40 PM Post
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Posts: 11930
What does PITA stand for?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 2:45 PM Post
Posts: 8982
owbc said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Yea, I think that's why some of us fro the beginning said we have to get back to normal as much as possible once we went through the initial flatten the curve. I've always had the feeling it would be around indefinitely. We can't lock down emotionally, medically, or economically for a year or two...or longer.


Wait, you think we're doing the correct thing by having our case count the way it is compared with other countries?


No. Things should be opened up even more than they are now. I don't care about comparisons to other countries. We do far more testing than most, I don't trust the numbers from a lot of other countries, and case count isn't that important to me. Death count is the only metric that really matters, and I believe that number is over-stated here. I've heard specific examples from doctors I know in CA an IL where deaths were written up as Covid. Some cases Covid was not the primary cause of death, other case they were never tested for Covid. I have no idea how rampant this is, but when your hospital is paisd for Covid deaths, you're going to have more Covid deaths.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 2:46 PM Post
Posts: 8982
turborickey said:
What does PITA stand for?


First word is Pain


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 2:48 PM Post
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Posts: 11930
FVBrewerFan said:
turborickey said:
What does PITA stand for?


First word is Pain


ahhhh, thanks... just couldn't come up with that on my own.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Great post on the long one FTZ. I'd thought of the timeline thing and for the most part I ruled it out for a few reasons, first that it's been so long that we've had plenty of time to get in check. Obviously that's just a feeling thing with no backing, but after almost 4 months the policies have had time to get in place no matter where. But that's where my head went, by no means saying it's correct. Second was that both of the the two countries I grabbed have basically been in the very low ballpark I mentioned going back to mid to late May. Third, the fact that we had that advantage to get ahead of this and didn't is actually a bad thing imo, not an excuse. Again, IDK if any of that's right but that's what went in my head when I thought of that issue. For overall testing, as of 2-3 weeks ago EU was basically testing the same percent of population as us (with us getting like 8x as many cases per pop and that was before the number got even worse the last 2 weeks). That's what started me on the wormhole, that info was all out there for testing and cases 1-2 weeks back and then I thought to look at deaths today and couldn't find it. Those rates could've easily change by now, but that's what I basing off.

Your 2nd paragraph is the billion dollar question, fingers crossed. Kinda agree with your guess that we're gonna maintain in this 5-1000 per day window a while. And that's kind of what I was getting at, this narrative push is trying to act like that's ok or to normalize it. But we're seeing much better elsewhere, we can do better imo and this plateau we've been on a while should not just be shrugged and accepted when clearly whatever these other countries implemented seems to have much better results. Which makes me agree with OWBCs post here as well. Overall though, good post, I don't disagree with anything you said. Just adding info to my train of thought on it.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 3:20 PM Post
Posts: 8320
Fear The Chorizo said:
tmwiese55 said:
Have seen the recent talking point is how deaths haven't spiked yet. I think I said a few pages back too which we're all hoping holds true for a number of reasons such as old people better protected now, earlier testing to catch cases, finding more mild cases, better treatment, etc. There is a lot of reasons this should not go up near the rates of before. But, with the hospitalizations going up in many places you'd think some increase comes soon. Hopefully it's not drastic though. If it is I'm sure everyone pushing that talking point now will quickly acknowledge.

but it did lead me down a hole trying to find EU comps on deaths per day now and I couldn't find it. As opposed to the New Cases graphs of EU vs USA that have been everywhere lately, so it was kind of frustrating and I thought odd so it made me curious if something was up trying to make us look bad. So I just grabbed France/Germany as bigger wealthier countries and kind of the flagships of Europe. France had 18 deaths on the 3rd. they're roughly 5x smaller than us so equivalent of 100 here. Germany had 9 on the 3rd, they're roughly 4x smaller, so equivalent of 36. I did not look at any other countries so I did not cherry pick good numbers (or bad, IDK how they comp to other europe countries). USA had 660 on the 3rd. So keep that in mind if/when you hear this narrative pushed this week. The narrative seems to essentially be trying to normalize setting a low bar and normalizing our comparatively high deaths. Of course one would think this continues to widen with how many more new cases we're getting than EU. If someone has whole EU graph or numbers feel free to add, I could not find it.


Keep in mind the initial significant outbreak occurred across Europe roughly 3-4 weeks before it happened in the US.


Not really. I was tracking it in late February and early March with my AP Human Geography class. The epicenter of Europe was Italy, and we were statistically about 10 days behind them.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 06, 2020, 4:14 PM Post
Posts: 5206
DHonks said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
tmwiese55 said:
Have seen the recent talking point is how deaths haven't spiked yet. I think I said a few pages back too which we're all hoping holds true for a number of reasons such as old people better protected now, earlier testing to catch cases, finding more mild cases, better treatment, etc. There is a lot of reasons this should not go up near the rates of before. But, with the hospitalizations going up in many places you'd think some increase comes soon. Hopefully it's not drastic though. If it is I'm sure everyone pushing that talking point now will quickly acknowledge.

but it did lead me down a hole trying to find EU comps on deaths per day now and I couldn't find it. As opposed to the New Cases graphs of EU vs USA that have been everywhere lately, so it was kind of frustrating and I thought odd so it made me curious if something was up trying to make us look bad. So I just grabbed France/Germany as bigger wealthier countries and kind of the flagships of Europe. France had 18 deaths on the 3rd. they're roughly 5x smaller than us so equivalent of 100 here. Germany had 9 on the 3rd, they're roughly 4x smaller, so equivalent of 36. I did not look at any other countries so I did not cherry pick good numbers (or bad, IDK how they comp to other europe countries). USA had 660 on the 3rd. So keep that in mind if/when you hear this narrative pushed this week. The narrative seems to essentially be trying to normalize setting a low bar and normalizing our comparatively high deaths. Of course one would think this continues to widen with how many more new cases we're getting than EU. If someone has whole EU graph or numbers feel free to add, I could not find it.


Keep in mind the initial significant outbreak occurred across Europe roughly 3-4 weeks before it happened in the US.


Probably splitting hairs - I'd state that peak US outbreak from a deaths perspective was mid-late April and peak specifically for Italy was late March...although it's tough looking at individual European countries compared to the US as a whole because of both population and geography. From what I recall Italy led the way in terms of it being Europe's initial ground zero, but then Spain and Belgium/France weren't far behind them followed by Britain. Once it was apparent all the travel ban nonsense wasn't enacted quickly enough from Europe at the end of February, there was no stopping it popping up across the US.

Not really. I was tracking it in late February and early March with my AP Human Geography class. The epicenter of Europe was Italy, and we were statistically about 10 days behind them.


Probably splitting hairs but you're most likely correct - for some reason I recall Italy getting bad sooner than that in terms of concerns with hospital capacity, not necessarily daily death tallies which Italy had initial trouble getting accurate numbers out due to their system being overwhelmed. I'd state that peak US outbreak from a deaths perspective was mid-late April and peak specifically for Italy was late March...although it's tough looking at individual European countries compared to the US as a whole because of both population and geography. From what I recall Italy led the way in terms of it being Europe's initial ground zero, but then Spain and Belgium/France weren't far behind them followed by Britain - with those countries paralleling NY/NJ's progression. Once it was apparent all the travel ban nonsense wasn't enacted quickly enough from Europe at the end of February, there was no stopping it popping up across the US - particularly in the primary travel hubs to/from Europe.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: July 07, 2020, 9:41 AM Post
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Posts: 12760
I think the next couple of weeks will be very telling as to whether or not this lower fatality rate is the real deal or not. It's been roughly three weeks since the big case spikes started in the Southern part of the country.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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