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COVID-19 Thread

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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 11:24 AM Post
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Samurai Bucky said:
nodakfan17 said:
I have a theory on why Millennials & GenXers are taking this more seriously than other generations:

We’re all terrified of a major recession because we’re in (or near) our peak earning years and another economic disruption could permanently throw off our career earnings trajectory. I graduated in the middle of the last recession and it took me 3-4 years to get the type of position/salary that a 2019 grad could have gotten last Spring. Now at age 35, I have what most people would consider a pretty good job and I’m nervous about being forced to start over (but this time with a kid and a mortgage).

From what generation did all of the kids go on spring break this year? I know it is a relative sample size, but people in their late teens / early to mid 20's don't seem to take this as serious as older folks.


They're Gen Z.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 11:26 AM Post
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homer said:
nate82 said:
I believe most people are not adhering to the warnings of this virus because of the media. They have cried wolf so many times between 9/11 and now that people just blow them off as being overly dramatic.


Then those lazy asses need to start listening to people other than the media. There are plenty of epidemiologists and infectious disease docs out there on Twitter and other places to get informed. If people don't want to do that then that's on them.


The problem is its not just on them. The poor decisions they make could very well kill others.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 12:02 PM Post
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I have seen this transcending age honestly. Lots of old folks have decided they've waited this long to have fun and they're going to do it. Lots of young folks who just don't get it. Stupid people get old, too.


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Posted: March 25, 2020, 12:12 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
I have seen this transcending age honestly. Lots of old folks have decided they've waited this long to have fun and they're going to do it. Lots of young folks who just don't get it. Stupid people get old, too.


I have seen the same as OldSchoolSnapper in terms of transcending age. Not to get too political, but the lines amongst my friends/family tend to be similar to how you vote and where you get your news.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 12:20 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Samurai Bucky said:
nodakfan17 said:
I have a theory on why Millennials & GenXers are taking this more seriously than other generations:

We’re all terrified of a major recession because we’re in (or near) our peak earning years and another economic disruption could permanently throw off our career earnings trajectory. I graduated in the middle of the last recession and it took me 3-4 years to get the type of position/salary that a 2019 grad could have gotten last Spring. Now at age 35, I have what most people would consider a pretty good job and I’m nervous about being forced to start over (but this time with a kid and a mortgage).

From what generation did all of the kids go on spring break this year? I know it is a relative sample size, but people in their late teens / early to mid 20's don't seem to take this as serious as older folks.


They're Gen Z.

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 1:12 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
The Swedes are arguably the most isolated culture on Earth. People do not exchange pleasantries, you don't talk to strangers, lots of young people live by themselves. Hugging and handshakes and the like are not even a thing. If you ever get a chance to go there you will realize firsthand it's very real and not a cliche.


Yes, but this is generally true of all the Scandanavian countries, not just Sweden.


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Posted: March 25, 2020, 1:16 PM Post
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BMuch25 said:
homer said:
Again, the mortality rate is important but there are plenty of people going to the hospital with this that don't die. They are taking up beds/resources from people that also need them (oftentimes for things other than Covid 19) and those people very well could die. Not to mention infecting the caretakers at the hospitals who maybe can't work because they are home sick.


While flattening the curve is truly important, not many admit the US is better prepared for this than most other countries. Here is a quote from an economist I follow.

"Meanwhile, a 2013 study by the Department of Health and Human Services determined that the US has the most Intensive Care Unit beds per capita of any country at 20-32 per 100,000 people. This is far higher than China where there are only 2.8-4.6, demonstrating why they needed to build hospitals overnight. Likewise, the US far outdoes countries with socialized medical systems like Canada (13.5), Sweden (5.8-8.7), or the UK (3.5-7.4). This means the US is better suited to deal with the healthcare capacity issues that could arise with a Pandemic than virtually any other country in the world."


This is true and a good thing but the US also has far fewer regular hospital beds than the rest of the world (draw your own conclusions about why we have the ICU bed to regular bed ratio that we do. My cynical guess is that it has to do with reimbursement rates) so when someone moves out of ICU they need somewhere else to go. Secondly, for this kind of illness you oftentimes need a special ICU room of which there aren't all that many.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... aly-2020-3

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 1:40 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
OldSchoolSnapper said:
The Swedes are arguably the most isolated culture on Earth. People do not exchange pleasantries, you don't talk to strangers, lots of young people live by themselves. Hugging and handshakes and the like are not even a thing. If you ever get a chance to go there you will realize firsthand it's very real and not a cliche.


Yes, but this is generally true of all the Scandanavian countries, not just Sweden.


Sweden is literally the #1 country in the world in the % of households that are comprised of one person, 40%. All of the nordic countries, though, have a disproportionate % of young people who report feeling lonely very often, especially when juxtaposed with those countries basically always topping the list of "happiest" on earth.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 2:45 PM Post
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FVBrewerFan said:
PeaveyFury said:
FVBrewerFan said:
Except it's already approved by the FDA, and has been in use for many years. Even if it wasn't, what is the downside of giving dying people this drug? I understand clinical trials are needed to use it for this application on a mass basis, I don't understand why it's not an option for anyone dying, or even in critical condition. And again, this is a known drug, not experimental.


Its use as a treatment for COVID-19 is the definition of experimental.


Well, that's being argumentative for the sake of it. Obviously any treatment of C-19 is experimental at this point. But the drug itself is not experimental. It is FDA approved, and around for a long time. Supply would not be a problem if they wanted to go this route, there's only a limited supply because there's no demand yet.

Just watch. I predict we'll see really positive results in WA and NY, it will go into more widespread use and save a lot of lives. Then again, I feel optimistic today.


Supply is a problem right now. Kaiser Permanente is discontinuing it for patients that are already on it:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ta ... hloroquine

In a statement provided to BuzzFeed News, Kaiser Permanente confirmed that it was no longer filling routine prescriptions for chloroquine.

"As we face the real possibility of running out of the drug for everybody if we don’t take steps to mitigate the shortage, Kaiser Permanente, like other health care organizations across the country, has had to take steps to control the outflow of the medication to ensure access to severely sick patients, including both COVID-19 and those with acute lupus," said Nancy Gin, regional medical director of Quality and Clinical Analysis at Kaiser Permanente, Southern California, which has 4.6 million members.

"Extensive experience and research show that hydroxychloroquine builds up in the body and continues to work for an average of 40 days even after the last dose is taken. By then, we expect the drug manufacturers to have ramped up production to meet the increased demand. Until then, we are no longer refilling routine prescriptions to ensure we have adequate supply to care for our sickest patients," Gin said.


I guess we'll see what happens in the next 40 days.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 2:52 PM Post
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homer said:
BMuch25 said:
homer said:
Again, the mortality rate is important but there are plenty of people going to the hospital with this that don't die. They are taking up beds/resources from people that also need them (oftentimes for things other than Covid 19) and those people very well could die. Not to mention infecting the caretakers at the hospitals who maybe can't work because they are home sick.


While flattening the curve is truly important, not many admit the US is better prepared for this than most other countries. Here is a quote from an economist I follow.

"Meanwhile, a 2013 study by the Department of Health and Human Services determined that the US has the most Intensive Care Unit beds per capita of any country at 20-32 per 100,000 people. This is far higher than China where there are only 2.8-4.6, demonstrating why they needed to build hospitals overnight. Likewise, the US far outdoes countries with socialized medical systems like Canada (13.5), Sweden (5.8-8.7), or the UK (3.5-7.4). This means the US is better suited to deal with the healthcare capacity issues that could arise with a Pandemic than virtually any other country in the world."


This is true and a good thing but the US also has far fewer regular hospital beds than the rest of the world (draw your own conclusions about why we have the ICU bed to regular bed ratio that we do. My cynical guess is that it has to do with reimbursement rates) so when someone moves out of ICU they need somewhere else to go. Secondly, for this kind of illness you oftentimes need a special ICU room of which there aren't all that many.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... aly-2020-3


Well, I can think of a whole bunch of large empty cruise ships laying around - and empty hotels for that matter - that would be perfect makeshift recovery/isolation hospitals with plenty of beds for those with mild/moderate symptoms not requiring an ICU.

Part of the reason the US has so few "regular" hospital beds per capita compared to the rest of the world actually has to do with the quality of care/health system and the fact that in even normal circumstances the best place to be if you want to contract an infectious disease is a hospital - the US hospital system has tried to limit the overall room size of hospitals and spread out the range of care to multiple facilities in other locations - even taking advantage of in-home care given the fact most Americans live in palaces compared to the rest of the world. I also don't really know how assisted living/nursing home facilities are quantified in these # of bed breakdowns - I'm guessing the US has many, many more of those than the rest of the world per capita, of which would all fall under regular hospital beds in my book.


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Posted: March 25, 2020, 2:55 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
homer said:

This is true and a good thing but the US also has far fewer regular hospital beds than the rest of the world (draw your own conclusions about why we have the ICU bed to regular bed ratio that we do. My cynical guess is that it has to do with reimbursement rates) so when someone moves out of ICU they need somewhere else to go. Secondly, for this kind of illness you oftentimes need a special ICU room of which there aren't all that many.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... aly-2020-3


Well, I can think of a whole bunch of large empty cruise ships laying around - and empty hotels for that matter - that would be perfect makeshift recovery/isolation hospitals with plenty of beds for those with mild/moderate symptoms not requiring an ICU.

Part of the reason the US has so few "regular" hospital beds per capita compared to the rest of the world actually has to do with the quality of care/health system and the fact that in even normal circumstances the best place to be if you want to contract an infectious disease is a hospital - the US hospital system has tried to limit the overall room size of hospitals and spread out the range of care to multiple facilities in other locations. I also don't really know how assited living/nursing home facilities are quantified in these # of bed breakdowns - I'm guessing the US has many, many more of those than the rest of the world per capita, of which would all fall under regular hospital beds in my book.


That still doesn't account for supplies - swabs, masks, ventilators etc.

Point being....flattening the curve is the best way to attack this thing regardless of where you live.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 3:17 PM Post
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I can't blame boomers for not taking this seriously. They've lived through:

- polio
- end of a World War
- Vietnam War
- race riots
- Cuban missile crisis
- MAD and the Cold War
- Korean War
- Chernobyl
- Desert Storm
- 9/11
- Japan nuclear tsunami
- SARS, swine flu, bird flu, monkeypox
- global cooling, acid rain, hole in ozone layer, global warming, climate change
- multiple recessions

They have disaster fatigue and just don't care anymore.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 3:22 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
I can't blame boomers for not taking this seriously. They've lived through:

- polio
- end of a World War
- Vietnam War
- race riots
- Cuban missile crisis
- MAD and the Cold War
- Korean War
- Chernobyl
- Desert Storm
- 9/11
- Japan nuclear tsunami
- SARS, swine flu, bird flu, monkeypox
- global cooling, acid rain, hole in ozone layer, global warming, climate change
- multiple recessions

They have disaster fatigue and just don't care anymore.


And if true, that's too bad since this has the potential to kill more of them than all but Vietnam, and even that might not hold up if this isn't taken seriously.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 3:31 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:

Sweden is literally the #1 country in the world in the % of households that are comprised of one person, 40%. All of the nordic countries, though, have a disproportionate % of young people who report feeling lonely very often, especially when juxtaposed with those countries basically always topping the list of "happiest" on earth.


I'm not sure on the recent numbers, but they've always had the highest suicide rate too. So... stubbornly happy. To a point, anyway.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 4:05 PM Post
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For fun I did some curve fitting, nothing super rigorous but attempting to plot the data makes it very clear that there have been many different phases of the outbreak. Which we already kind of know. Normally you'd want to add more data in to get a better prediction, but I found pretty consistently that the recent rate of increase in cases has been more than exponential growth, when compared to earlier. Given all the testing wonkiness that is not really a surprise, but it does mean the best fit of a curve to the graph uses only the last 10 days of data. If in included earlier numbers it just keep more and more under predicting our actual current total.
So what I came up with has the world at 1.4 million cases 10 days from now Nothing formal, but I do think it gives a decent idea where things are headed. I'd be stunned if we don't break a million by then, on the other hand unless the death rate moderates significantly over that time if we end up significantly over that number I would be very worried because it would be signalling yet another acceleration in the infection rate.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 9:26 PM Post
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MN just formally issued its stay at home order through 4/10, although it really changes nothing for the majority of us who are already on house arrest. 287 confirmed cases with 26 of them being hospitalized and 1 death. Even more importantly is MN has only identified a handful of community infection cases - the vast majority remain from people returning from international travel and their immediate family living in the same household. The governor keeps saying they are expecting a surge in cases, but it hasn't showed up yet and you can feel the angst from those who have already been holed up for about 2 weeks voluntarily. Teachers are exhausted. We are trying to sort out how to manage elearning for a 1st grade spanish immersion student on outdated iPads while her younger brothers scream at each other playing and my wife and I juggle conference calls between flipping coins for who gets to leave the house to target and drive home with only half the stuff we needed due to supply issues.

Also talked with my neighbor this afternoon from an acceptable distance across the yards, who is a brewmaster at a local craft brewery - even with liquor stores somehow remaining on the list of essential businesses (yay lobbying!), he's pretty certain this is the death if the craft beer boom. He is already retraining himself on car repairs because he's certain his owner is gonna have to close their doors no matter what government aid package gets pieced together and spit out scattershot so it doesnt look like a depression on a nationwide scale. He has three young kids and a wife who is having to start work at 3am as a medical biller so she doesnt crash her company's internet during typical office hours.

I feel fortunate to be in the life situation I am in while dealing with what is shaping up to be a really crummy 2020 - hell even my neighbor does. That doesnt change the fact that this flat out sucks, and I'm not ashamed to feel that way.


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Posted: March 25, 2020, 9:32 PM Post
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I went to work today, the first day in Wisconsin of the "Mandated lockdown" and the traffic on the beltline and interstate was absurd. Because so many businesses that are absolutely not essential (Joanne fabrics! Best Buy!) are asking for and receiving exemptions, there are still a lot of people wandering out and about like it's business as usual.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 25, 2020, 9:40 PM Post
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Location: Waukesha, WI
Samurai Bucky said:
nodakfan17 said:
I have a theory on why Millennials & GenXers are taking this more seriously than other generations:

We’re all terrified of a major recession because we’re in (or near) our peak earning years and another economic disruption could permanently throw off our career earnings trajectory. I graduated in the middle of the last recession and it took me 3-4 years to get the type of position/salary that a 2019 grad could have gotten last Spring. Now at age 35, I have what most people would consider a pretty good job and I’m nervous about being forced to start over (but this time with a kid and a mortgage).

From what generation did all of the kids go on spring break this year? I know it is a relative sample size, but people in their late teens / early to mid 20's don't seem to take this as serious as older folks.


Today, I met up with an old acquaintance from when I worked in central Wisconsin a few years ago. She relocated to the Madison area a couple of years ago. She has two sons, ages 21 and 19. They come down to Madison twice a month to hang out. So far she has been unable to convince them to stay in Wood County (one positive test) for the time being and avoid exposing themselves to a hot spot.


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Posted: March 26, 2020, 8:12 AM Post
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igor67 said:
For fun I did some curve fitting, nothing super rigorous but attempting to plot the data makes it very clear that there have been many different phases of the outbreak. Which we already kind of know. Normally you'd want to add more data in to get a better prediction, but I found pretty consistently that the recent rate of increase in cases has been more than exponential growth, when compared to earlier. Given all the testing wonkiness that is not really a surprise, but it does mean the best fit of a curve to the graph uses only the last 10 days of data. If in included earlier numbers it just keep more and more under predicting our actual current total.
So what I came up with has the world at 1.4 million cases 10 days from now Nothing formal, but I do think it gives a decent idea where things are headed. I'd be stunned if we don't break a million by then, on the other hand unless the death rate moderates significantly over that time if we end up significantly over that number I would be very worried because it would be signalling yet another acceleration in the infection rate.


Yeah, with the extreme lack of testing, then suddenly flooding the country with available tests, it really destroys any data.

We'd have to extrapolate the curve backwards based on other countries findings to get a sense of where we actually are and where we might be heading.

"I wasted so much time in my life hating Juventus or A.C. Milan that I should have spent hating the Cardinals." ~kalle8

Twitter: @MKEHiker
Website: http://www.mkehiker.com


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 26, 2020, 8:20 AM Post
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Doubtful that this specific number is being provided as readily with all the other updates on total number of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, etc - but a great number to also track should be the number of confirmed cases that aren't officially deemed "recovered", but identified as no longer able to require isolation on a statewide level (i.e., most likely not contagious). Also, total number of completed tests is very important on a state by state basis to gauge the accuracy of the actual confirmed case total.

MN for example:

287 confirmed cases
1 death
26 hospitalizations, 12 currently critical
122 of these cases no longer require isolation
almost 12,000 total tests completed - more have been conducted with pending results
Roughly 6 million people living in MN, more than half of which are in the Twin Cities metro area.

So roughly 2% of the people tested in MN to date that either showed symptoms or were in some sort of contact with a confirmed case contracted the coronavirus. Of those 287 they are approaching half of the current cases who no longer require isolation. 26 hospital beds being occupied by patients, 12 of them likely in ICU spaces. The 1 death was an 80-something with underlying medical conditions in addition to their age who came in contact with a family member returning from international travel.

There are many more who have contracted the disease and haven't been tested, no question. But by now after 2 weeks of voluntary self-isolation one would think there should be a marked increase in this state of confirmed cases simply by a small percentage of those untested start showing symptoms or require medical attention beyond just riding the illness out at home. If that doesn't start happening, news like this morning's 1000+% increase of weekly unemployment filings continuing over the next couple weeks are going to force their way into the conversation about getting rural and moderate population center areas reopened much sooner than May.

There are plenty of areas in the US in much direr straits with this disease than my neck of the woods - those areas are going to require significant response and assistance efforts to prevent their medical infrastructure from imploding for a longer time period, IMO. However, there are many more areas that should be able to start reopening their normal daily operations of public life for the majority of the population after a couple more weeks of self isolation if state and federal governments are smart and restrict movement into/out from the areas with concentrated cases (i.e. New York and some other population centers). I'm fine with not traveling to New York, LA, Chicago, or internationally for a couple months - and not seeing my 70-something parents - if it means my kids have school and most of my friends and family keep their jobs. A measured reopening of the country done the right way sooner allows for the huge chunk of change that's about to be printed out from this bill working its way through Congress to be better targeted to the people and business who really are going to need the help.

There shouldn't be restrictions on unaffected areas from returning their kids to school or resuming normal daily routines because population centers in the same state or nationwide can't open their schools, too. Any achievement gap issues caused by rural schools being open when suburban/urban schools remain closed shouldn't be worth worrying about.


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