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COVID-19 Thread

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 7:48 PM Post
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That is how it is for most people. Is what it is.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 7:49 PM Post
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But it doesn't have to be that way for teachers. I've been teaching remotely for 2 weeks no problem. Ridiculous by the district.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 9:40 PM Post
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Absolutely absurd. And now that it's made the media, I'd expect it walked back quickly....


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 9:59 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
Based on some best-estimates-from-smart-people numbers, the death rate from this would end up being a lot lower than the flu.

The annual flu has a death rate of 0.1%. This is looking like it's more like 1%. It's much, much worse than the flu.

Early reports had it higher than 1.0% - so let's hope that keeps going down.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 10:11 PM Post
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With Day 1 being the first day that death tolls reach double digits, here's the progression in Italy, Spain and the U.S.

Day 3
Italy - 27 deaths
Spain - 19
USA - 23

Day 6
Italy - 49
Spain - 63
USA - 49

Day 9
Italy - 97
Spain - 191
USA - 141

Day 12
Italy - 250
Spain - 262
USA - 268

Day 13
Italy - 250
Spain - 288
USA - 401 (March 27 - yesterday)

Day 16
Italy - 349
Spain - 680

Day 19
Italy - 427
Spain - 773 (March 27 - yesterday)

Day 22
Italy - 651

Day 25
Italy - 683

Day 27
Italy - 919 (March 27 - yesterday)

Italy has, roughly, had this happening for twice as long as the United States (4 weeks vs. 2 weeks). Spain is right in between at nearly 3 weeks.

Spain looks like it will be worse than Italy in short order. The United States is quickly catching up in daily deaths - but a part of that is there are a lot more people.

While the rates between Spain and Italy and the US are not an exact comparison, it's probably a more accurate comparison than with China (due to incomplete data) or Korea.

Bottom line is that if we follow the trends of Italy and Spain, this is no where near done.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 10:32 PM Post
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The problem with trying to pin down a mortality rate on this is that it's extremely difficult this early to account for those that are completely asymptomatic.

At its worst, COVID-19 is definitely worse than the flu but I do think there's some data that suggests that in many cases, it's not even harmful. There's a pretty vast spectrum of symptoms.

If you could test every single American tomorrow for either current or past COVID-19, how many do you think:

1) Already had it come and go
2) Have it currently

I think there's a huge range of possible answers to those questions. My total unprofessional guess says that we'll wind up with a mortality rate around 0.5%, far less than current estimates but still 5 times worse than seasonal flu.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 27, 2020, 11:57 PM Post
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I think everybody knows and agrees that the bug itself is much worse than the flu... With all of the measures that have been and will continue to be taken there is still a slim possibility that the overall numbers will end up less deathly than the flu (22,500?). Without any precautions taken, I think it is quite obvious by now that the overall numbers would be decimating to society and cause far more problems than a 30 day lockdown (or whatever it ends up being). Sub/Urban areas will probably be locked down for quite a bit longer, as well as travel restrictions.

I'll say that rural schools and churches will be going again before June--with strict trace and track testing and quarantine measures. Now that testing is more widespread and available, we should be able to separate hotspots from unafflicted areas and have appropriate measures in place for each locale.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 5:45 AM Post
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greeg35 said:
But it doesn't have to be that way for teachers. I've been teaching remotely for 2 weeks no problem. Ridiculous by the district.


What makes teachers special that they should be able to care for their children while working? He even said he wouldn’t be able to work as well doing it...what more needs to be said.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 6:12 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
greeg35 said:
But it doesn't have to be that way for teachers. I've been teaching remotely for 2 weeks no problem. Ridiculous by the district.


What makes teachers special that they should be able to care for their children while working? He even said he wouldn’t be able to work as well doing it...what more needs to be said.


If you think teachers would be treated 'special' by being allowed to work from home during this and caring for their kids at the same time, I'd suggest that you should look for a new employer. Both my wife and I have specifically been allowed to work from home by our separate employers so that we can care for our kids, and almost all of our friends and neighbors have too.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 7:05 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
MrTPlush said:
greeg35 said:
But it doesn't have to be that way for teachers. I've been teaching remotely for 2 weeks no problem. Ridiculous by the district.


What makes teachers special that they should be able to care for their children while working? He even said he wouldn’t be able to work as well doing it...what more needs to be said.


If you think teachers would be treated 'special' by being allowed to work from home during this and caring for their kids at the same time, I'd suggest that you should look for a new employer. Both my wife and I have specifically been allowed to work from home by our separate employers so that we can care for our kids, and almost all of our friends and neighbors have too.


I think it is pretty reasonable for any employer to not allow people to watch their kids while working at home. I don’t think that is absurd or ridiculous. Many have allowed, many have not. I know some have bent their typical rules to where it is, “Well if they are pretty much self sufficient we won’t make a fuss.” As mentioned a lot are also allowing staggered schedules that would not be allowed under normal conditions...or working out of normal hours to get it done.

It doesn’t have to be that way for teachers, but at the same time I don’t see why there is some expectation they should get to watch their kids while working.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 7:18 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
PeaveyFury said:
I don’t see why there is some expectation they should get to watch their kids while working.


Maybe because it's tone deaf and heartless?

MrTPlush said:
Many have allowed, many have not.


Again, if your employer has not, find a new employer when all of this is done. You find out a lot about a company (and people, too) based on how they act in a time like this. Work someplace where they put you and your family ahead of their personal profits.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 7:34 AM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
MrTPlush said:
PeaveyFury said:
I don’t see why there is some expectation they should get to watch their kids while working.


Maybe because it's tone deaf and heartless?

MrTPlush said:
Many have allowed, many have not.


Again, if your employer has not, find a new employer when all of this is done. You find out a lot about a company (and people, too) based on how they act in a time like this. Work someplace where they put you and your family ahead of their personal profits.


As I said I think most places have at least bent rules to allow people to “watch” their fairly independent kids. I think the problem is they don’t want people watching their 0-2 year old that requires constant attention so they don’t insert barbies head into an electrical outlet.

I don’t think there should be an expectation and entitlement to watch your kids while working at home.

I have never mentioned my employer, so I don’t know why you keep bringing it up. I don’t think most employers are freely just letting people care for their kids and stop working constantly all day. If so they must have one relaxed job to do. Parents also wouldn’t be lining up at my local daycares seeing if they can take on additional kids. I imagine it is similar many other places.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 7:54 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
I think the problem is they don’t want people watching their 0-2 year old that requires constant attention so they don’t insert barbies head into an electrical outlet.


Outlet covers are a wonderful thing.

MrTPlush said:
I have never mentioned my employer, so I don’t know why you keep bringing it up..


I meant the collective you, and the point remains the same.

The good news is that MMSD has, as expected, already begun walking this back when they were called out on it. It was a poorly thought out, heartless, absurd policy. Truly disappointing that it took a revelation to the media for that to be realized by the district. For a district that struggles with a lot of things, including staff retention, I'd think a lot of those teachers will have that in mind when their contract renewals come up next time.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:06 AM Post
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I don't know anyone who is working from home that has had to find childcare for their kids while working from home. The only kids that I know of that are still going to daycare are friends of ours whose dad is a nurse manager and their mom's company only went to work from home once the safer-at-home order kicked in. Daycares have prioritized the limited spaces they can have to people who cannot work from home.

With the transition to online learning, there is no reason why I cannot work from home with my kids in the house. They will be spending some time doing their own homework and I have a few other things planned for them. I am also not required to do live classes, just be available for office hours throughout the day which won't be complicated by the presence of my children.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:21 AM Post
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Just do it without telling anyone like millions of people did before COVID19. As far as the legitimacy of asking people to secure childcare, it's insane. There are people who've had their daycare closed. In a regular circumstance, yes, I agree it's a normal expectation. Right now is anything but normal.


Last edited by OldSchoolSnapper on March 28, 2020, 8:23 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:21 AM Post
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Look I am not saying people shouldn’t be able to, I think they should. I think it is far from something that should be expected though. It depends on the job obviously, teachers working at home is probably easily done with kids around. If you have to make phone calls or have meetings a toddler or younger is obviously not the most realistic.

Daycares definitely saw an influx of requests. One by me I know refused to take on anyone new while another one was willing to. The state of Wisconsin actually relaxed daycare rules so they could do this, so I think there was a notable need across the state for it. Of course less than 48 hours after that Evers came in with the 50 person ban that they then extended to daycares kind of ruining that plan. I believe that daycare was going to work with the school to add 50 kids and have them under separate roofs then (rule is 50 max in one building), but I don’t think they ended up doing so.

This situation is such unchartered territory policies for work establishments have changed almost daily. It isn’t easy for places to shift everyone to work from home in under 48 hours. Places have to learn what to do on the fly.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:26 AM Post
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FWIW, my wife works in public higher education. Our two boys have been home for a couple weeks now, and it hasn't been any sort of issue.

Expecting people to arrange for childcare given current "Safer at Home" order, and how hard it can be to find quality affordable daycare to begin with under normal circumstances, is simply ridiculous and unrealistic.

The Paul Molitor Statue at Miller Park: http://www.facebook.com/paulmolitorstatue


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:27 AM Post
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I honestly don't think it would even be possible from an infrastructure standpoint for everyone to get childcare.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:31 AM Post
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Yeah, I wasn't saying teachers should be treated specially, simply that I'm a decent teacher and it's been successful for me to work at home with my kid. Admittedly, I have a simpler situation than some; but many teachers in my school have more challenging situations and are doing fine. I can't speak for all jobs; but I've had a variety and it would have been fine in any of them.

The more I learn about companies that successfully have at home employees, the more obvious it is that companies that try to control home work environment are either covering up other disfunction or creating it (or both). I'm proud of my school for being on the right side of that dynamic so quickly.

Sam Harris had a recent podcast on this topic. It's really good. Check it out.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread
Posted: March 28, 2020, 8:35 AM Post
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Location: Genova, Italia
Dear Friends,

don't understimate this virus, Italy is on the verge of a collapse, we're on a curfew, almost everything is shut down and the national health system is melting, please stay home and stay safe. 45 days month ago we were on "nothing more than a bad flu" page, well, it is not. We're struggling.


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