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COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 7:44 PM Post
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owbc said:
I think the 4th of July fireworks cancellations are as much about local governments being broke as they are about crowd prevention.

How many businesses are actually being held back by COVID regulations at this point?

Pretty much all of the non-essential businesses in Chicago. Restaurants got the go-ahead for limited outdoor seating today but...


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 8:53 PM Post
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'Professor Lockdown's' discussion was much more then just Sweden controlled it just fine (which is highly debatable at the moment). The article was also from the Daily Mail, which has a poor enough reputation for wiki to ban them as an unreliable source.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 8:55 PM Post
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The fireworks are definitely more about money than crowds. And not just governments. The reality is that many fireworks displays are sponsored by businesses. Businesses that were not ready to fork out 10 or 20k for explosions which require purchase and planning in April.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 8:56 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
owbc said:
I think the 4th of July fireworks cancellations are as much about local governments being broke as they are about crowd prevention.

How many businesses are actually being held back by COVID regulations at this point?

Pretty much all of the non-essential businesses in Chicago. Restaurants got the go-ahead for limited outdoor seating today but...


I got takeout at a Thai place on Monday and Chipotle on Tuesday. Both were jam packed. Some of my favorite upscale restaurants are booked days in advance for to-go orders. Virtually every small business has transitioned to online sales.

Obviously servers and bartenders are hurting bad and not every business can transition to online. But it's not really about the regulations at this point. Nobody wants to go to a sit-down restaurant. Nobody wants to get on an airplane. Nobody wants to go sit in an office. And since we've gotten used to the new normal we may as well keep doing it until there is a vaccine.

I do think mistakes were made--the farmers market near me should have never shut down when grocery stores were allowed to stay open. But they corrected themselves in mid-May and that is back to normal now.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 8:57 PM Post
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igor67 said:
'Professor Lockdown's' discussion was much more then just Sweden controlled it just fine (which is highly debatable at the moment). The article was also from the Daily Mail, which has a poor enough reputation for wiki to ban them as an unreliable source.


Dailymail isn't something I would use in an academic debate but they are basically TMZ. Sensationalized news but very, very rarely incorrect. They'll happily post rumors but once they run with something they often get it right and often get it first ($$$).


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 8:59 PM Post
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owbc said:
LouisEly said:
owbc said:
I think the 4th of July fireworks cancellations are as much about local governments being broke as they are about crowd prevention.

How many businesses are actually being held back by COVID regulations at this point?

Pretty much all of the non-essential businesses in Chicago. Restaurants got the go-ahead for limited outdoor seating today but...


I got takeout at a Thai place on Monday and Chipotle on Tuesday. Both were jam packed. Some of my favorite upscale restaurants are booked days in advance for to-go orders. Virtually every small business has transitioned to online sales.

Obviously servers and bartenders are hurting bad and not every business can transition to online. But it's not really about the regulations at this point. Nobody wants to go to a sit-down restaurant. Nobody wants to get on an airplane. Nobody wants to go sit in an office. And since we've gotten used to the new normal we may as well keep doing it until there is a vaccine.

I do think mistakes were made--the farmers market near me should have never shut down when grocery stores were allowed to stay open. But they corrected themselves in mid-May and that is back to normal now.


Takeout is not a replacement for restaurants that do sit-down service. It cuts off beverages, where the vast majority of their margins are, and particularly repeat beverages, like the table of 6 that sits down and has 2-3 glasses of wine. That's a huge lifeline for restaurants.

The margins on people that order a burger and water are terrible, like, $1 sometimes. It's far beyond servers and bartenders.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 9:16 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
igor67 said:
'Professor Lockdown's' discussion was much more then just Sweden controlled it just fine (which is highly debatable at the moment). The article was also from the Daily Mail, which has a poor enough reputation for wiki to ban them as an unreliable source.


Dailymail isn't something I would use in an academic debate but they are basically TMZ. Sensationalized news but very, very rarely incorrect. They'll happily post rumors but once they run with something they often get it right and often get it first ($$$).


Sweden deaths per million: 438.76 (5th)
USofA deaths per million: 324.08 (9th)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 9:30 PM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:

Takeout is not a replacement for restaurants that do sit-down service. It cuts off beverages, where the vast majority of their margins are, and particularly repeat beverages, like the table of 6 that sits down and has 2-3 glasses of wine. That's a huge lifeline for restaurants.

The margins on people that order a burger and water are terrible, like, $1 sometimes. It's far beyond servers and bartenders.


I don't own a restaurant so I'm not sure how it balances out, but there is going to be some balance between the loss of beverage sales and the reduced labor force needed to keep a takeout operation afloat. I imagine you are right that many are running in the red.

But again, my main point is that it's not government regulation that is causing this, it's the aversion of the general public to being in enclosed spaces. Even if a full return to sit-down was allowed only the 20% of people not concerned about COVID would show up. And there's no way to know when people will want to return to full-service restaurants again. Maybe there will simply be less of them in the future and more places that are optimized for takeout.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 9:41 PM Post
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owbc said:
And since we've gotten used to the new normal we may as well keep doing it until there is a vaccine.


People think the development of an effective vaccine within a short time period is a given and I'm not sure where that certainty is coming from. I spent 15 years as a vaccine scientist and while I think a vaccine is likely, I would not assume immediate success. Also safety studies on vaccines usually take a decade. I'm sure the FDA will take some shortcuts but I don't know how much it can be condensed.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 03, 2020, 9:44 PM Post
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Problem is most of that labor force is subsidized by tipping in the US. A bunch of them make $2-3 an hour so without the table service there's not much cost savings by not having them around.

Really, the "support local with takeout" was a cute thing when this was hopefully going to last a month, but it's unfortunately like putting chewed gum on a leaky roof. It's just not going to keep anybody afloat that wasn't already designed mainly for takeout. The web is full of hundreds if not thousands of owners saying this.

On your other point though, yes, it's compounded by loss of both local and non-local tourism. They'd have a huge problem right now with or without government rules.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 8:53 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
Problem is most of that labor force is subsidized by tipping in the US. A bunch of them make $2-3 an hour so without the table service there's not much cost savings by not having them around.

Really, the "support local with takeout" was a cute thing when this was hopefully going to last a month, but it's unfortunately like putting chewed gum on a leaky roof. It's just not going to keep anybody afloat that wasn't already designed mainly for takeout. The web is full of hundreds if not thousands of owners saying this.


Consumers like takeout. Venture capital has provided app-based delivery at a loss for long enough that people are used to it. Same thing happened with ride hailing apps. The taxi industry had to adapt. Restaurants are going to have to adapt. It sucks but this was already happening prior to COVID.

Ghost kitchens are already a thing and will only become more prevalent.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 9:13 AM Post
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I think that's a leap. There are plenty of people who prefer dining in for a bunch of reasons, including me. People may be fine with takeout for Qdoba. They are a lot less fine with Belfre, Sanford, etc. 2/3 of customers still prefer dining in.

It's also totally dismissive of tourist dining. Nobody wants to have Door Dashed meals to a Holiday Inn.

Eating good food in large groups with nice ambiance is something humans have done for thousands of years. It's not going anywhere. Taxis are not an adjacent industry; there is no service difference between a Taxi and an Uber, in fact you could argue the Uber is better for less money. There is a huge difference between a burrito sitting in a guy's car for 30 minutes and sitting down for a 5-star meal that someone else cleans up.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 9:35 AM Post
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But.... is there any difference between eating McDonalds or Taco Bell in their dining room or at your house? It's not like Taco Bell is a fine dining experience.

I have a few friends who are in quick service industry as general managers and they are busy as heck with drive through and delivery right now, and one good friend of mine is saying that there's talk that if trends continue, they may not open their dining room again.

We were already headed this direction with fast food joints installing 'place your own order' kiosks and stuff, and this is just another way to cut labor force and save money on labor. Covid is just hastening the inevitable in some places.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 9:47 AM Post
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That's part of what I'm saying though. The places most affected by the closures are the non-chain higher quality restaurants that sell experience. There is no experience at Qdoba, or Tbell. I also won't eat either, and there are a lot of people like me. We dine out probably once a month and it's usually a $2-300 tab at a place like DanDan, Belfre, Cheel, etc. Even if I want a burrito, I just walk to the Mexican-owned spot a few blocks away, pay a bit more and chat with the owner.

Takeout will never replace those places. The food is not meant to be served or eaten that way. People like that make up a much bigger portion of restaurant clientele than I think you're considering. Especially the ones most shaken by this, that usually have a specialty and sell an experience.

I can promise you that the clientele at those restaurants don't like takeout for much besides Chinese and pizza.

There isn't quite the same kind of divide when it comes to rideshare/taxi. You could say that a fine restaurant is like a limousine service, but there are a lot more people who only eat at "nicer" joints than there are riding around in limos. An environment where there is only takeout would be awful, the majority of customers don't like it and fine dining is not designed for it.

I'd say this is more like saying TV would kill radio. Something a lot of people predicted and never came close to happening. 

You are definitely right though that Covid is hastening the inevitable. I'm totally convinced there are plenty of places using it as an excuse to do something they don't have to do, but have wanted to do for quite some time.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 9:47 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Man did I create the outrage over saying i chuckle to myself over something so simple as what I said. I didn’t hurt anybody, I didn’t hurt feelings, I didn’t call anyone a racist, and we have a page and a half?

Jesus y’all are wound tight. Do you ever laugh...at anything in life? I’m sorry if I offended but I’ve been quite offended over the reaction to this for 2 months after seeing it clearly wasn’t what we thought it was. So I guess we’re even.[/quote]

My friend, I suggest you look in the mirror. You picked a fight with someone who's point was essentially as simple as "be nice and empathetic, especially to someone who's just trying to help during a tough time". And you're now saying I'm the negative one and attacking me. You are literally arguing against being nice. Again, probably a good time to take a step back and take emotion/frustration and examine the info and sources that you're buying into.

No, the problem has always been the infection rate and exponential growth due to asymptomatic spread and no vaccine. It seems you got caught up in the wrong stuff back then, just as you are now. The side you're now saying was so wrong about death rate was the one at the time saying there is way more cases out there if we tested for them (thus the whole time saying the deathrate was much lower than the data indicated back then) while your faction was saying these people are crazy to lockdown with such small numbers of cases. And you're still insisting those people are wrong.

It is a fact that a disease spread through perst to person contact will have it's spread slowed by limiting person to person contact.[/quote]

The very person that started the cascade which cost us 40 million jobs is admitting lockdown had little or no effect. It’s right there in the open to see, if we were to believe his (also previously drastically false past predictions), we must also believe him this time...should we not?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... weden.html

Count me in as well to a pass on the first month. I can see the path to understanding what we did. What is beyond inexcusable and costing people their financial (and in some cases their actual) lives is May, June, July, etc. The 4th of July fireworks....really? The damage we’ve done will take years or a decade for people to crawl out of. Some never will, and some will be dead. This is an extremely serious situation. Keep the unemployment payments flowing and the country will go belly up. Keep businesses locked down and the middle class disappears. All of this for a 0.5% or so death rate HEAVILY skewed toward the elderly? What would the rate truly be if governors such as Cuomo didn’t push sick patients into nursing homes? These particular governors should be arrested, not congratulated.

I will not apologize for having perfectly harmless and to myself laughs, as they harm nobody. Im probably laughed at daily myself by people, as is everyone. I’m tired of society always having an opinion of what others think and reprimanding it, and I’m sorry that I probably offended by saying that as well.[/quote][/spoiler]



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I made no comment on the economic ramifications or on if other measures could've had similar results. I stated a literal fact.

You guys (primarily the other poster) have spent days getting angry at, attacking and arguing with someone over stating a literal fact and for essentially saying "it's a tough time, maybe just be nice to each other". If that doesn't make you think you might be coming at things from a bit of a bad mindset I don't know what will.

I urge you guys to take a step back and think from a different mindset. Pretty much every point made by the "this is all overblown" camp is countered with some very simple logic. You're going down a bad path of misinformation. You're not being misled by the science folks (though of course they're gonna be be wrong on some things as they're figuring out on the fly). Also, don't take everything they've said that "might or potentially could happen" or "increases the risk for" to be a statement that it will happen. You're actually being misled by the folks you're listening to that are telling you that you're being misled by the science people (these people want clicks and negativity/conspiracy type fuels it, this is exactly what's wrong with our culture right now). These people have been wrong from the beginning and are still digging in and grasping at anything to cling to being right and discrediting the other side. Taking stuff out of context and spinning it that it proves this is all bs is what's keeping their clicks/ratings up.

ETA: also, the talk of how it's fine to snicker at and rip on behind their back. Sure yea not directly affecting anything. But this mindset is what is poison to current societal discourse. It leads to negativity, hate, divisiveness. Leads to the mindset of anyone who disagrees with me is a moron, evil hates america, etc. Imagine someone saying "I won't apologize for making fun of gay people behind their back". Of course, a mask wearer is not the same level or class, I'm not saying that. I'm pointing it out in regards to the psychological trickle down of thinking like that about people different than you.


Last edited by tmwiese55 on June 04, 2020, 10:41 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 10:01 AM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Not sure if mentioned yet, don't recall seeing it. But something girls have been telling me that will be big time reduced is nail, hair, eyebrows, etc appointment type stuff. This is making them realize how much money has been wasted on this and that it's not really needed. Sure, for people with a lot of money they'll do it and everyone still will sometimes or special occasions. But say you make a normal 50-60k, you probably don't need to be spending 1-200 a month on this stuff.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 10:11 AM Post
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tmwiese55 said:
Not sure if mentioned yet, don't recall seeing it. But something girls have been telling me that will be big time reduced is nail, hair, eyebrows, etc appointment type stuff. This is making them realize how much money has been wasted on this and that it's not really needed. Sure, for people with a lot of money they'll do it and everyone still will sometimes or special occasions. But say you make a normal 50-60k, you probably don't need to be spending 1-200 a month on this stuff.


My female friends have the exact opposite response.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 10:44 AM Post
Posts: 5417
Location: Madison, WI
Machu Peach said:
tmwiese55 said:
Not sure if mentioned yet, don't recall seeing it. But something girls have been telling me that will be big time reduced is nail, hair, eyebrows, etc appointment type stuff. This is making them realize how much money has been wasted on this and that it's not really needed. Sure, for people with a lot of money they'll do it and everyone still will sometimes or special occasions. But say you make a normal 50-60k, you probably don't need to be spending 1-200 a month on this stuff.


My female friends have the exact opposite response.


Fair enough. Of course everyone comes from a different view. Any chance they're generally well off financially as opposed to say avg salary nurse/teacher types? I think I would also clarify mine a bit to maybe take out hair, might have overstated there. I think they mean the more niche things like nails, eyelashes, eyebrows, etc.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 11:40 AM Post
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OldSchoolSnapper said:
It's also totally dismissive of tourist dining. Nobody wants to have Door Dashed meals to a Holiday Inn.


It is extremely popular to get delivery to hotels. Very, very popular. Think about where most hotels are located--not downtown but the ones along highways and strip malls. People who are trying to feed their kids and get them to bed without dragging everyone into the car to drive to a restaurant.

When my partner business traveled she used to do it all the time. Long 10+ hour workday, back to the hotel room, the last thing she wanted to do was go back out to get dinner.

OldSchoolSnapper said:
That's part of what I'm saying though. The places most affected by the closures are the non-chain higher quality restaurants that sell experience. There is no experience at Qdoba, or Tbell. I also won't eat either, and there are a lot of people like me. We dine out probably once a month and it's usually a $2-300 tab at a place like DanDan, Belfre, Cheel, etc. Even if I want a burrito, I just walk to the Mexican-owned spot a few blocks away, pay a bit more and chat with the owner.

Takeout will never replace those places. The food is not meant to be served or eaten that way. People like that make up a much bigger portion of restaurant clientele than I think you're considering. Especially the ones most shaken by this, that usually have a specialty and sell an experience.

I can promise you that the clientele at those restaurants don't like takeout for much besides Chinese and pizza.

There isn't quite the same kind of divide when it comes to rideshare/taxi. You could say that a fine restaurant is like a limousine service, but there are a lot more people who only eat at "nicer" joints than there are riding around in limos. An environment where there is only takeout would be awful, the majority of customers don't like it and fine dining is not designed for it.

I'd say this is more like saying TV would kill radio. Something a lot of people predicted and never came close to happening. 

You are definitely right though that Covid is hastening the inevitable. I'm totally convinced there are plenty of places using it as an excuse to do something they don't have to do, but have wanted to do for quite some time.


I'm on your side, my partner and I love the sit-down dining experience and are not afraid of a couple hundred dollar tab for a good night. But one of the first things we did during COVID was to order some takeout dinners from our favorite nice restaurants. And it turned out to be a really good experience. We ordered a new outdoor dining table and have a pretty good setup now for a fancy-ish meal at home and we have gotten pretty good at making our own cocktails.

I can think of many nights in the 'old times' where we got home late from work and needed to eat fast. Usually that meant a call for cheap, unhealthy delivery. But now that nice restaurants are providing a premium takeout experience we are big converts.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 aftermath: What things will change forever?
Posted: June 04, 2020, 11:48 AM Post
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The Weatherman
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Also, don't forget that Uber started as a premium "black car" service before it spread to the masses. Not that much different than the premium takeout experience that I have now experienced and don't want to give up.


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