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COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]

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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 11, 2021, 3:49 PM Post
Posts: 168
It's not that strange at all. There's no reason to assume you've had COVID if the tests were negative. It certainly possible that you had a low level infection that isn't detectable via the 3 rapid tests, but it isn't likely. The false negative rates of the rapid tests are only around 20%.

I think many people overestimate the infectivity of COVID (and viral diseases in general). Think of how colds or the flu spread; sometimes everyone in a household is infected but sometimes only one person.

Edit: I should add that I don't really trust the at-home rapid tests. I'm sure kits themselves are ok, but I'm skeptical that they'll be used appropriately by everyone.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 11, 2021, 5:51 PM Post
Posts: 168
For those interested in post-infection immunity.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/ ... ce.abf4063


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 11, 2021, 7:52 PM Post
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Regardless of what happened with me, my wife, toddler, and newborn, we will all be getting vaccinated ASAP. I truly hope there are no long term effects for newborns- my wife wore a mask up until yesterday since her symptoms are now gone, but with how close she and the newborn have to be, I'm assuming a mask can only do so much.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 11, 2021, 10:33 PM Post
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thebruce44 said:
Regardless of what happened with me, my wife, toddler, and newborn, we will all be getting vaccinated ASAP. I truly hope there are no long term effects for newborns- my wife wore a mask up until yesterday since her symptoms are now gone, but with how close she and the newborn have to be, I'm assuming a mask can only do so much.

I'm pretty sure the Pfizer vaccine has only been approved for those 16+ and the Moderna vaccine for those 18+, so I don't know if the kids can even get the vaccine.

There have only been a little more than 100 total "COVID-involved" deaths of people 14 and under. That is less than the number of deaths "involving" influenza for those 14 and under, and influenza cases are way down this season.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

I don't know for sure, but I'd be willing to bet that a vast majority of those who are 14 and under are obese or have other underlying medical conditions or have parents who smoke at home.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 11, 2021, 10:45 PM Post
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thebruce44 said:
Regardless of what happened with me, my wife, toddler, and newborn, we will all be getting vaccinated ASAP. I truly hope there are no long term effects for newborns- my wife wore a mask up until yesterday since her symptoms are now gone, but with how close she and the newborn have to be, I'm assuming a mask can only do so much.


If your wife happens to be breastfeeding, that might help protect the child, too


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 2:15 PM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
thebruce44 said:
Regardless of what happened with me, my wife, toddler, and newborn, we will all be getting vaccinated ASAP. I truly hope there are no long term effects for newborns- my wife wore a mask up until yesterday since her symptoms are now gone, but with how close she and the newborn have to be, I'm assuming a mask can only do so much.


If your wife happens to be breastfeeding, that might help protect the child, too


The pediatrician said her antibodies will pass through her milk to our infant.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 5:31 PM Post
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Two of my immediate family members were able to get their first shot today, and I'm over-the-moon excited about it. One was my moderately high-risk mother, who is still working in a high-risk job, so it's a huuuuge sense of relief.


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Online  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 5:44 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Two of my immediate family members were able to get their first shot today, and I'm over-the-moon excited about it. One was my moderately high-risk mother, who is still working in a high-risk job, so it's a huuuuge sense of relief.


Congrats to you and your mom!

Looking forward to the day when I can get mine. I'm a phase 2 person, which is gooe that I'm lower risk, but still would like those antibodies.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 5:54 PM Post
Posts: 2797
Super excited for you.
On a different optimistic note based on the success of the mRNA Covid vaccines, there are already plans for 3 different Phase I trials for a new flu vaccine, HIV, and a 3rd rare disease. I have a strong intuition that we have hit one of those rare perfect storm moments where the dramatically increased investment has really spawned a goldmine of new vaccine technologies that will keep having huge benefits for public health for years to come.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 6:00 PM Post
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igor67 said:
Super excited for you.
On a different optimistic note based on the success of the mRNA Covid vaccines, there are already plans for 3 different Phase I trials for a new flu vaccine, HIV, and a 3rd rare disease. I have a strong intuition that we have hit one of those rare perfect storm moments where the dramatically increased investment has really spawned a goldmine of new vaccine technologies that will keep having huge benefits for public health for years to come.

Nipah virus (link to article about Moderna)


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 168
igor67 said:
On a different optimistic note based on the success of the mRNA Covid vaccines, there are already plans for 3 different Phase I trials for a new flu vaccine, HIV, and a 3rd rare disease. I have a strong intuition that we have hit one of those rare perfect storm moments where the dramatically increased investment has really spawned a goldmine of new vaccine technologies that will keep having huge benefits for public health for years to come.
I am significantly more skeptical. Both flu and HIV have specific features that make them very difficult to vaccinate against. COVID does not have those type of features. mRNA vaccines have already been extensively tested against both flu and HIV and failed. I'm hopeful that eventually effective vaccines will be designed against both, but using mRNA doesn't solve the underlining problems with flu and HIV vaccine design.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 8:40 PM Post
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I do appreciate a good dose of cold water, Machu. Could you elaborate a bit on which characteristics are the biggest hurdles? I'm considering if I want to invest some time researching more for redesigning part of a unit.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 12, 2021, 9:50 PM Post
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My wife got her first vaccine shot on Monday. She's doing well - no side affects other than a bit of a sore arm where she got the shot.

As she work's in a hospital system, she's knows a lot of people who have got the shot. Thus far, it seems that the second shot has had some harsher side effects. One friend had a bad headache for two days and was just sort of wiped out. Otherwise, it's all over the board regarding reactions - but nothing too severe.

Can't wait to get my shot - but it's a long way off as I'm not on any need-to-get list. But eventually.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 13, 2021, 11:54 AM Post
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igor67 said:
I do appreciate a good dose of cold water, Machu. Could you elaborate a bit on which characteristics are the biggest hurdles? I'm considering if I want to invest some time researching more for redesigning part of a unit.
It's easy to induce antibodies against either flu or HIV, but it's difficult to specifically induce protective antibodies.

For flu you'll want to look into the concepts of "antigenic drift", "antigenic shift", and "original antigenic sin." Basically, flu strains can interact and trade surface components such that an effective antibody response against one strain can be completely ineffective against a new strain, even if they still bind.

HIV has a massive glycan shield which protects it from most antibodies. This is further confounded by the fact that it's hard to get synthesized HIV proteins to fold exactly correctly. Additionally it has a famously low fidelity polymerase such that there can be multiple quasispecies within a single individual, leading to rapid immune escape mutations.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 13, 2021, 1:34 PM Post
Posts: 2797
Very helpful I was unaware of the folding difficulties with HIV proteins. I had assumed that part of the appeal of an mRNA vaccine for flu long term was that eventually it would have a much shorter manufacturing time horizon, so they could do a better job matching the yearly vaccine to the dominant strains that year, not that they would be able to pull off a one size fits all.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 13, 2021, 2:52 PM Post
Posts: 5337
The way things are going there won't be a need for a better seasonal flu vaccine compared to what they've been doing...nobody, and I mean essentially nobody has it this winter. Goes to show how much more contagious COVID is when these distancing protocols all but squash influenza but are mixed at best trying to keep COVID from spreading on a community level wherever seasonal conditions are optimal for viral spread.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 13, 2021, 3:19 PM Post
Posts: 2797
I don't know what normal proportion of flu transmission happens in schools compared to other places, but all respiratory virus numbers have been way down and students are loaded with those all the time.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 13, 2021, 4:45 PM Post
Posts: 168
igor67 said:
Very helpful I was unaware of the folding difficulties with HIV proteins. I had assumed that part of the appeal of an mRNA vaccine for flu long term was that eventually it would have a much shorter manufacturing time horizon, so they could do a better job matching the yearly vaccine to the dominant strains that year, not that they would be able to pull off a one size fits all.
The majority of current flu vaccine research is toward generating a universal flu vaccine, so I thought thats what you were referring. mRNA vaccine approaches could be part of that, but they would not address the main problems.

As far as a shorter manufacturing time time leading to more accurate predictions of the seasonal flu strains, yes I suppose it could help. The current flu vaccine production strategies are archaic and better alternatives have existed for decades. Maybe this will finally generate enough motivation to update them.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 14, 2021, 8:46 PM Post
Posts: 12366
The current flu vaccine is a guess from two years out I thought. Kind of why I have never had the flu vaccine not being in a class with high susceptibility.

Fan is short for fanatic.
I blame Wang.


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Offline  Re: COVID-19 Thread [V2.0]
Posted: January 15, 2021, 7:32 AM Post
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logan82 said:
The current flu vaccine is a guess from two years out I thought. Kind of why I have never had the flu vaccine not being in a class with high susceptibility.


Ya know, its funny. I never got the flu vaccine until I had a child on the way 3 years ago. I used to get the flu once a year and multiple lengthy illnesses. Since the flu shot, nothing. That is, until last year middle of February. However, I'm not entirely convinced I didnt have Covid. [laughing] I know the timeline does match up, but man I checked ALL of the boxes except the taste and smell, but I couldnt eat, so who knows.


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