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2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2016, 9:58 PM Post
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Never Outhustled said:
bullox said:
Never Outhustled said:
If he has fans here, please name me another OF with a college OPS as low as Rays who became an All-Star. Please! Help me be happy again!


College stats don't directly correlate with pro stats. If they did, Rickie Weeks would have been a multiple MVP winner, which people still thought he would be when he was in the minors.


Yes, some high OPS hitters don't pan out, but that's not the discussion here. I'm looking for an OF who didn't have a high OPS who did become an impact player. Can you name one? Please, help me out!

I didn't search too hard, but looking at some past All-Stars here are a few that match your criteria. All links are for Baseball Cube which includes college stats. I put Corey Ray at the top for those not familiar with his college stats.

Corey Ray NCAA career (3 years at Louisville) OPS of .928

Michael Bourn NCAA career (3 years at Houston) OPS of .802

Brett Gardner NCAA career (4 years at College of Charleston) OPS of .930

Curtis Granderson had a ridiculous Junior year, but his first two years at Illinois-Chicago he had OPS' of .822 and .932.

Ian Kinsler is not an OF, but an NCAA career (1 year at Central Arizona, 1 year at Arizona State, 1 year at Missouri) OPS of .923


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 2:51 AM Post
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I've come around to the Ray pick, mostly because I have no choice.

I fully expect him to be the Brewers starting LF by 2018. I think he will be a good player for us. Not a difference maker but a solid contributor.

I do expect him to move up quickly and based on starting him at A+ , the Brewers do too.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 9:15 AM Post
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I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule.

Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 9:41 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule.

Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.


I think you answered your own question. Players typically don't get to the majors quickly because of aggressive placement. Most really do start in low A ball etc. They move fast because they do well and teams somewhat aggressively promote them. Though when they are hitting/pitching well promoting a guy after a half season or less at a level isn't really being aggressive. Only thing that may be aggressive is when a team makes a player skip AA.

If you are an international signing or a HS player it isn't hard to move a level a year and make the big leagues by 23. We just have too many players struggling or falling off the map before they can make it all the way up.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 9:56 AM Post
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Certainly a player must perform to be awarded the promotion. But I was pretty shocked to see the ages of the four players we got back last year:
- Houser: 22 at AA
- Hader: 21 at AA
- Maverick: 21 at AA
- Santana: 22 at MLB/AAA

With some exceptions, most of our 21/22 yo players are in A and A+. I've not looked at the Houston farm team to see if this is more of a trend or if we cherry picked players that were younger. Obviously, they were some of the best players in the Houston organization.

So, I was curious if it was only talent or if there is a difference in development philosophy.

Though when they are hitting/pitching well promoting a guy after a half season or less at a level isn't really being aggressive.
That is pretty aggressive for the Brewers. I've seen them skip levels when initially placing a guy, but rarely promote after only 1/2 season. Fielder and Braun did it, but not much at the lower levels.

Even placing Maverick/Houser back in AA this year was a bit of a slow promotion plan.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 10:59 AM Post
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Location: Kenosha, WI
I agree it does seem they are very reluctant to have a guy move levels mid season unless it is very late in the season. Unless of course it is someone leaving rookie ball or a prospect they wish was at the next level a long time ago(Roache). I wonder how much of that has to do with higher end talent not having much success and they are less likely to push lesser know prospects.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 11:28 AM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule.

Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.


Could be. In the case of starting Ray in high A and Nottimgham in AA they have show they will move people aggressively with a plan in mind. Both players figure to be in Milwaukee soon.

On the hand Phillips in AA says they still have a lot of caution.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 12:20 PM Post
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They have been pretty aggressive with Malik Collymore this year as well going from rookie ball to A+. Has responded well thus far with 268/359/375, not sure if he is the odd man out though with Ray coming. Maybe down to low A.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 6:00 PM Post
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Here is an article back in 2011 from Baseball Prospectus. With Arnold in the front office now I wouldn't be surprised if players are slow tracked through the minors especially pitchers. Batters on the other hand will be fast tracked through the minors. This is of course if the Brewers follow the Rays example of moving pitchers slowly through the minors and hitters quickly through the minors. Though this doesn't really change all that much as the Brewers were already doing this.



Image

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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 7:39 PM Post
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Outlander said:
They have been pretty aggressive with Malik Collymore this year as well going from rookie ball to A+. Has responded well thus far with 268/359/375, not sure if he is the odd man out though with Ray coming. Maybe down to low A.


Brandon Diaz? Isn't he the CFer right now?


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 9:59 PM Post
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Lucas Erceg seems under assigned by putting him in rookie ball. It may be because Gatewood is at Wisconsin at 3b. I'd imagine that Erceg will tear up rookie ball. He's too advanced for that level.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 10:06 PM Post
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Austin Tatious said:
Lucas Erceg seems under assigned by putting him in rookie ball. It may be because Gatewood is at Wisconsin at 3b. I'd imagine that Erceg will tear up rookie ball. He's too advanced for that level.


30 at-bats...7 games...


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2016, 10:13 PM Post
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What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 5:37 AM Post
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Since Erceg likely hasn't faced much competition at the NAIA level this spring, I think his initial placement is appropriate. Nothing is preventing him from earning a few midwest league ABs, for a hopeful Timber Rattlers playoff run later this year.

Erceg came up in the Fangraph chat yesterday. I guess after panicking over Brexit, Greenspan shifted his attention to underrated draft prospects.

Eric Longerhagen said:

Allen Greenspan: Thoughts on Lucas Erceg? He seems like he may have been underrated going into the draft


Eric A Longenhagen: You’re right, those are first round tools. But some teams had him off the board because of makeup.


Chat Link


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 7:31 AM Post
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I agree for the most part, Austin. I didn't have a problem with the initial placement, as he needed to see some better pitching than NAIA. He's seen it. He can hit it. Get him to Wisconsin. I think there's precedent. It seems every year, a couple of the college guys jump after a week or two when they prove they can handle the level.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 7:42 AM Post
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Where are you going to play him? Do you really want Gatewood losing time at 3rd? This is the problem with Ray/Clark also. You want both playing centerfield which is probably why they moved Ray to Brevard County.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 7:55 AM Post
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Austin Tatious said:
What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?


Arguing? Umm?

I don't think anyone can draw a conclusion after as little as 30 at-bats. A few 0-4 games and his stats are nothing special. I'd think one would need at least 100 at-bats before one could really decide how he is doing.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 9:05 AM Post
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WV Brew said:
Where are you going to play him?

I agree that you can't have Erceg and Gatewood on the same team at this point. It's also probably true that Erceg needs to be moved up from Helena at some point in the not too-distant future. I wonder if Erceg skips Wisconsin altogether and joins Ray in Brevard?


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 9:43 AM Post
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And That said:
WV Brew said:
Where are you going to play him?

I agree that you can't have Erceg and Gatewood on the same team at this point. It's also probably true that Erceg needs to be moved up from Helena at some point in the not too-distant future. I wonder if Erceg skips Wisconsin altogether and joins Ray in Brevard?


I imagine he goes to A+ if he continues to mash. If he flattens out to say a good but not great .270/.330/.500 he may not move up this year. That isn't bad, but to skip A ball for A+ would be quite aggressive unless he is absolutely destroying at rookie ball. Hopefully Gatewood continues to hit and he can go to A+ sooner rather than later. Won't hold my breath on that though.


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Offline  Re: 2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 28, 2016, 9:43 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Austin Tatious said:
What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?


Arguing? Umm?

I don't think anyone can draw a conclusion after as little as 30 at-bats. A few 0-4 games and his stats are nothing special. I'd think one would need at least 100 at-bats before one could really decide how he is doing.


I don't agree with this at the Rookie club level. It's usually pretty evident right away when you're advanced for that league. We skip guys out of there pretty fast with success. As far as where to play him, skip him to A+.


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