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The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#61

Posted: July 12, 2016, 9:32 PM Post
Posts: 16380
Who said he is trying to cherry pick his destination? The kid knows he has the Red Sox upside down hanging from a tree. He knows the Red Sox will crack and give him most if not all of their remaining bonus pool money. He is doing what any other sensible human being would do in his situation.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#62

Posted: July 12, 2016, 9:53 PM Post
Posts: 1284
TheCrew07 said:
Buck Rogers, the GM of the Huntsville Stars at the time, dropped an excellent blog post laying it all out there. I'll see if I can dig it up.

***edit***

I didn't find the original blog, but I found my post.


Thanks for the information. I did not realize that about LaPorta.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#63

Posted: July 13, 2016, 7:34 AM Post
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I heard Groome signing with Boston isn't a sure thing. He and his family are still upset that Boston picked him after they told them not to do so (because Groome had a $5M deal set up with Boston).

Still, hard to pass on $4M or so (assuming Boston goes that high).


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#64

Posted: July 13, 2016, 11:11 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Who said he is trying to cherry pick his destination?


No one, I said Joe Fernandez and John Elway did, though there have been many others.

MrTPlush said:
The kid knows he has the Red Sox upside down hanging from a tree. He knows the Red Sox will crack and give him most if not all of their remaining bonus pool money.


Generally I'm in favor of free market economy, but that model doesn't work in professional sports so I have no use for players or agents who try to circumvent the system to get more pay, or choose their draft destination, or whatever other scenario of skirting the rules one can think of. I don't care that he had a predraft deal in place with SD, the whole notion predraft deals is hogwash to start with. He was drafted where he was, his slot is what it is, and I could care less about the team just like I did with the Brady Aiken deal a couple of years ago, it's the principle that bothers me.

MrTPlush said:
He is doing what any other sensible human being would do in his situation.


While you are welcome to your opinion that's far from the truth. I wouldn't do that if I was in his position because I know how the system works and I'm more interested in getting what's fair than the maximum, I'd even consider signing for a couple hundred thousand less for 2 reasons:

1) That extra money could potentially bring a significant contributor to team with me when we hit MLB.

2) Players that don't sign and go back into the draft are hurting themselves long term. Any draft bonus is peanuts compared to a player's first FA contract... if Groome is as good as he thinks he is and is at least a #3 he'll make at least an easy $12-14 million per year in FA, which blows away the extra 800K he's quibbling over now or even best case for him if he was the #1 overall next year (which won't happen) and gets $3 mil more. I have a pretty good idea why long term earning potential is glossed over for short term gratification, but the opportunity cost of not signing easily definable and quantifiable, especially if you get hurt before the next draft like Aiken and Hoffman.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."
- Plato
"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."
- Plato


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#65

Posted: July 13, 2016, 1:34 PM Post
Posts: 299
Location: La Crosse
Of course, there is no incentive for Groome to sign before the deadline. He knows what the Red Sox' number is and he wants it higher. It's in his best interest to wait until the last minute.

Regarding getting paid what is 'fair'.....whatever the team will pay you is fair. Groome is working within the system to get the most money he can now. At the deadline, if the number is right, he'll sign. I'm not sure there is an argument that could persuade me that he should approach this in a different way.

Isn't he doing exactly what Chad McClanahan did with the Brewers about 2 weeks ago?


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#66

Posted: July 13, 2016, 6:29 PM Post
Posts: 16380
Jason Groome can be mad all he wants, but passing up on $4mil would not make much sense. It just makes him one year older and he would need to be picked Top 6 or so next year to get that kind of money. Even higher to actually make it worth it. There is very little reason to pass up $4m on his part. Heck many teams would probably be pretty scared to draft him if he were to not sign this year. Take the $4mil and get going Groome.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#67

Posted: July 14, 2016, 7:17 AM Post
Posts: 299
Location: La Crosse
MrTPlush said:
Jason Groome can be mad all he wants, but passing up on $4mil would not make much sense. It just makes him one year older and he would need to be picked Top 6 or so next year to get that kind of money. Even higher to actually make it worth it. There is very little reason to pass up $4m on his part. Heck many teams would probably be pretty scared to draft him if he were to not sign this year. Take the $4mil and get going Groome.


I think the recent history of players not signing and going back into the draft shows that he should sign. Granted my memory sucks, but has there been a high pick who skipped signing, then got substantially more the next year?


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#68

Posted: July 14, 2016, 8:02 AM Post
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Posts: 4145
Location: Madison
MrTPlush said:
Jason Groome can be mad all he wants, but passing up on $4mil would not make much sense. It just makes him one year older and he would need to be picked Top 6 or so next year to get that kind of money. Even higher to actually make it worth it. There is very little reason to pass up $4m on his part. Heck many teams would probably be pretty scared to draft him if he were to not sign this year. Take the $4mil and get going Groome.


Less than 24 hours before this post, you said any sensible person would hold out for more money, now you say it does not make sense to not sign. [laughing]


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#69

Posted: July 14, 2016, 10:08 AM Post
Posts: 16380
yfinn6 said:
MrTPlush said:
Jason Groome can be mad all he wants, but passing up on $4mil would not make much sense. It just makes him one year older and he would need to be picked Top 6 or so next year to get that kind of money. Even higher to actually make it worth it. There is very little reason to pass up $4m on his part. Heck many teams would probably be pretty scared to draft him if he were to not sign this year. Take the $4mil and get going Groome.


Less than 24 hours before this post, you said any sensible person would hold out for more money, now you say it does not make sense to not sign. [laughing]


Umm yup? That is correct? He needs to hold out for every last penny, but that didn't mean not to sign. Not sure why you took that as he shouldn't sign


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#70

Posted: July 14, 2016, 11:00 AM Post
Posts: 299
Location: La Crosse
Saw a blog post saying Groome is in Boston for a physical, which would mean his signing is imminent. I can't wait to see how much he gets.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#71

Posted: July 14, 2016, 5:34 PM Post
Posts: 4211
I know it's professional sports and all but think about how much $4 million actually is. Especially for someone who just graduated from high school. That's more than most of us will make in our entire lifetime. And he wants more. I get it. You can't really compare sports to real life but if someone offered me $4 million out of high school, to play baseball no less, I'd sign as fast as I could. Really puts professional athletes (and actors/actresses, musicians, etc) into perspective in how they live vs how we live.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#72

Posted: July 14, 2016, 9:21 PM Post
Posts: 16380
The thing is if you were worth $4mil would you settle for $3.5mil "as fast as you could"? It's really no different than when an average joe wants a raise. You want what you are worth.

Also fighting over say $250k sounds ridiculous, but can you imagine safely investing that today and letting it grow till you want to retire? That is HUGE. So in my opinion they aren't being greedy. They are doing what is best for them and their future.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (Still #9 pick (11Jul))
#73

Posted: July 15, 2016, 12:21 PM Post
Posts: 6512
Reports are out that he signed for $3.65 Million. Not all that he wanted, but over slot money and a slight bit more than what Boston recently had on the table ($3.5M). Good decision for the kid and for the Red Sox.

I think if you're a high school pitcher and you're drafted in the 1st round, you'd be foolish to pass up signing a contract and waiting another calendar year or multiple years should you decide on going to college. College will always be there for you after your career (if you even need it). Players in the bigs have a much easier time playing chicken with their longterm financials by going year to year with arbitration instead of signing an initial extension, because they're already established big league players with a track record. If a kid declines to sign a contract arguing over $200K and proceeds to blow out his arm, he won't ever be drafted as high as his original selection and odds are good his career will be over with before it ever started (and without several million in the bank).


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (18Jul))
#74

Posted: July 23, 2016, 8:59 AM Post
Posts: 1284
With the losses starting to mount, and the likelihood of trading off talent, I'd say we have a realistic shot at a top 3 pick. There are a couple of nice catchers projected high. JJ Schwarz has been much ballyhooed forever. There are some adequate pitching prospects when you look at Bukauskas and Greene. Montgomery will likely be very interested in Kendall, the Vandy outfielder. Kendall hits the sweet spot of what Montgomery is comfortable drafting in the 1st.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (18Jul))
#75

Posted: July 23, 2016, 9:17 AM Post
Posts: 16380
Jaren Kendall is also a Wisconsin native.

I also agree we will likely pick Top 5 at the least if we trade Lucroy, Torres, and at least one of Jeffress/Smith. Killing that bullpen will do more harm than one would expect.

Most high school guys will sign if drafted in the first two rounds. Usually that is enough money to not try and risk going to college. It's also notable they get free college even if they do sign if they want it. The only downside is the fact that it may no be to a sweet school where your scholarship was from. If you got a scholarship to a big time academic school like UCLA etc. you would likely lose your chance at an incredible education if you can't get in without baseball.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (18Jul))
#76

Posted: July 25, 2016, 10:23 AM Post
Posts: 2305
Austin Tatious said:
With the losses starting to mount, and the likelihood of trading off talent, I'd say we have a realistic shot at a top 3 pick.


Four teams solidly below us and four teams close to our vicinity in the standings. I'm sure if Nelson or Guerra are traded away we could end up folding, but otherwise I think we could hold together for close to a .400 clip even if Lucroy and a couple of bullpen guys are traded.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (18Jul))
#77

Posted: July 25, 2016, 11:33 AM Post
Posts: 525
Roderick said:
Four teams solidly below us and four teams close to our vicinity in the standings. I'm sure if Nelson or Guerra are traded away we could end up folding, but otherwise I think we could hold together for close to a .400 clip even if Lucroy and a couple of bullpen guys are traded.


Unless the Rays sells off alot, they still have an enviable rotation of Smyly, Archer, Snell, Odorizzi, and Moore. I'd still put money they catch us.

FWIW, Fangraphs has the Brewers finishing in a 3 way tie at 70 wins for 4th pick with Lucroy.
Braves 58 wins
Reds 65 wins
Twins 67 wins
Brewers, Phillies and Rays 70 wins


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (25Jul))
#78

Posted: July 26, 2016, 2:23 AM Post
Posts: 16380
Junior Guerra is pitching like an ace...and he isn't one. Even if you are the biggest Guerra fan a notable regression should be obvious to you. Our rotation has nowhere to go but down if you ask me even if we don't trade any of them.

The other thing is our bullpen. Torres and Boyer should be gone at the least. Add in one of the big three, maybe two, and clearly our bullpen is going to take a big hit.

Lastly it sure won't help taking away Lucroy's offense. We will go from an all star bat to a well below average one just like that.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (25Jul))
#79

Posted: July 26, 2016, 9:58 AM Post
Posts: 5961
While yes, we are taking a hit when we lose some of our players to trades, That is happening for other teams as well like SD parting with Upton in the last 24hours. I would think Atlanta, Cincy, SD are for sure bets to finish worse record than Milw. Oakland is another club I foresee slumping with trade aways (Gray, Valencia) Minnesota I think can overtake Milwaukee, they aren't losing talent and were a team above .500 last season. Tampa has the pitching and Arizona is vastly underachieving so I think they'll finish ahead of Milw. Philly and Angels may be competing with Milw for what I'm going to say is the 5th-7th worst records. We're still on pace for 70wins so with losing key players, 65-66wins becomes my expectation. That would have been 3rd pick last season. This homestand we could take 5 of the next 6 games putting the team above a 70win pace. (73 then) That makes 69-70 reasonable then and back to a 5th-6th type of pick. Either way, It's getting exciting the team potential that may be construed on the field in 3-5years.


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Offline  Re: The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#6 Pick (25Jul))
#80

Posted: July 26, 2016, 10:26 AM Post
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I think we are primed for a sizable collapse the last two months - assuming we trade Luc and others. Lucroy is such an important part of this team - losing him affects the club in so many ways. Add in potential loses - relievers in particular - and you could have a pretty bad club. I wouldn't be shocked if other starters are shipped out - Carter, Scooter, Nelson - even Braun could eventually be traded. It'll be painful trotting out guys like Wilkens and Middlebrooks.

The thing is that I feel it's the right thing. I'll be a painful couple of months, but it's how things will need to go. Eventually, we'll see guys like Arcia, Hader, etc. I'll enjoy watching the young guys give it a go - even if it's a slow process.


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