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You can change one Brewers draft pick...

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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#21

Posted: February 04, 2017, 5:44 AM Post
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Only looking ten rounds deep on these...

Angels took Garrett Richards three picks after Brewers selected Kentrail Davis in the supplemental 1st round in 2009. Davis was the pick for losing CC Sabathia.

DJ LeMahieu and Kyle Seager were taken within ten picks of Max Walla / Cameron Garfield in the 2009 2nd round.

***

2010:

J.T. Realmuto went eight picks after Tyler Thornburg in the 3rd round, tough call, but Realmuto looks to have a fine future at a premium position.

James Paxton was taken three picks after Hunter Morris in the 4th round.

2011:

I'm going to break the rules by one pick and note Mookie Betts went 11 picks after Michael Reed in the 5th round.

Anthony DeSclafani went eight picks after Brewers took RHP Daniel Keller in the 6th round.

Side note, again breaking the rule by one pick: Travis Shaw was taken 11 picks after Brewers took OF Malcolm Dowell in the 9th round.

***

I'll try and add notables from 2012 and forward later, or if someone wants to volunteer, Baseball Reference makes this very easy. Here's 2012's first and supplemental round, and then there's a link on the very same page to help you quickly move through rounds 2 into round 10.

One thing you learn from researching this exercise is just what an amazing crapshoot / dartboard the MLB draft is. My goodness.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#22

Posted: February 04, 2017, 10:45 AM Post
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Good call on Paxton, not sure how I missed that one. He's been hurt quite a bit, but coming back from injury at the end of 2014 would he have been able to help reverse the skid that the 2014 season ended on? Maybe, but after Seid passed away I don't think anything was going to bring that team back.

I thought about Richards, but am a bit worried about him putting off TJ surgery for stem cell therapy. I was looking at who would have the most value now, and serious injuries certainly decrease a player's value. And Richards going down at the end of the 2014 season might have amplified the agony of the last two months of that year even more.


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Online  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#23

Posted: February 04, 2017, 11:23 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
adambr2 said:
But my pick would probably be Cody Bellinger over Taylor Williams in the 4th round of the 2013 draft. I wish it wasn't Taylor Williams because I really like the guy, but adding Bellinger is a no-brainer.

Interesting choice. Given that A.J. Reed was the pick after Gatewood, would you rather have Bellinger and Gatewood or Taylor Williams and Reed?


I'd probably still rather have Bellinger + Gatewood, right now. This is probably unfair over such a small sample but it scares me a bit how bad Reed has been at the MLB level.

But there's a lot of good 'what if' deals that I'd like just as much that fall into this category. You certainly can't go wrong with Turner over Medeiros.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#24

Posted: February 07, 2017, 4:42 PM Post
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2009...Remove Eric Arnett...add Steven Matz.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#25

Posted: February 07, 2017, 5:07 PM Post
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Wasnt it 5picks? Did we move to 10picks recently?


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#26

Posted: February 07, 2017, 6:11 PM Post
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Yes - 5 slots for 1st round picks, 10 slots for 2nd round or later. I don't want to get into a game of "Player X was 21 picks later/3 rounds later/etc." because I want to stick to guys who realistically could have been in the conversation for that pick. If a guy went 15 picks or whatever later, then he likely wasn't in the conversation otherwise 14 other teams wouldn't have passed on him as well.

Speaking of Arnett, another reason for doing this exercise is what you see after the Arnett pick. Of the 23 picks after Arnett in the 1st round, only two have a career bWAR >3 - Garrett Richards and Rex Brothers (Paxton doesn't count because he didn't sign that year.) Chris Owings and Brad Boxberger are the only two who have >2 career bWAR. 12 of the 23 picks have a career bWAR of 0.2 or less. We like to say how much of a wasted pick that was, how much Seid screwed up, etc., but the reality is that most teams did just as poorly with their pick as the Brewers did.

Just as bad are the 19 picks after the Brewers slot in 2010, excluding Yelich. Heck, of the 36 picks after Covey only four have a career bWAR >1 - they are a big four (Yelich, Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Taijuan Walker), but that means that 32 other picks were botched as well.

adambr2 said:
I'd probably still rather have Bellinger + Gatewood, right now. This is probably unfair over such a small sample but it scares me a bit how bad Reed has been at the MLB level.


Anthony Rizzo didn't look so hot his first 150 PAs either... [smile]


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#27

Posted: February 07, 2017, 8:40 PM Post
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Oh, I only thought is was 5picks any round, maybe I just forgot already Triston Mckenzie was my 2nd thought in choice. Dont remember the round or year.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#28

Posted: April 12, 2017, 9:18 PM Post
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I think my choice would be Garrett Richards over Eric Arnett as a first-round pick.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#29

Posted: May 15, 2017, 8:13 AM Post
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Drop Corey Ray
Add Matt Manning


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#30

Posted: May 18, 2017, 12:35 PM Post
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Trea Turner instead of Medeiros would have been nice

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#31

Posted: May 28, 2017, 1:39 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
Yeah, I didn't think I'd have to state that re: Fernandez, but it's been well documented that he and his agent said they weren't signing with anyone except the Marlins (per Adam McCalvy) otherwise he would have went before Jungmann.

What I'm getting at - and why I limited it to 2009 and later - is what you think would have the most value for the Brewers right now.



I don't blame the Brewers for either of the pitchers they picked in that draft...they were projected to go where they went. It wasn't like either was a reach. In fact both were top 10 prospects. But I'd go with Fernandez as well.

As for him not playing for anyone other than the Marlins, it's one thing to say he won't play for any other franchise...it's another to turn down millions of dollars. Even being a Cuban who grew up in South Miami. I believe Josh Bell was even more adamant in his decision to go to college(not just refuse to play for anyone but one team, he refused to sign with ANYONE), yet look how that turned out.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#32

Posted: May 28, 2017, 6:35 AM Post
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Josh Bell also signed for $5M, tied for 5th highest signing bonus in that draft, so for all intents and purposes he was the #5 overall pick.

The four who signed for more - Gerrit Cole ($8M), Bubba Starling ($7.5M), Danny Hultzen ($6.5M), and Anthony Rendon ($6M). Buying Starling out of his college commitment... look how that turned out.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#33

Posted: June 04, 2017, 5:08 PM Post
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well the rules makes it a little harder, but i would have drafted Brinson instead of Roache.

honorary mention: Gray over Bradley.


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Offline  Re: You can change one Brewers draft pick...
#34

Posted: June 05, 2017, 10:53 AM Post
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Paxton for sure for me. His stuff is simply filthy. Obviously injury prone, but he is incredible when right.

I hate the Cubs. I hope they die.


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