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2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 22, 2017, 10:01 AM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
Harry Doyle's JD said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This notion that the Brewers brass randomly drafted this kid without being VERY informed as to his medical situation seems very strange to me. Likewise, the idea that the Brewers brass are a bunch of bumbling idiots that, after acquiring even more medical information, are just going to throw him on the field to play despite an obvious need for surgery is equally strange.

They looked at the medicals and re-examined the kid after the draft. If they say the elbow is good, then the elbow is good. Even so, they are not taking that for granted. They have clearly stated that he is going to start with a throwing program in Maryvale before going on. Unless one is a M.D. AND one has reviewed the medicals, then one has nothing more than conjecture to conclude future issues.

The same medical staff that went along with Thornburg not having surgery...

I'm aware a 2b won't throw as much or as hard as a pitcher, but a 2b will have many more opportunities to throw at awkward angles without proper form, which is just as dangerous as a pitching, if not more because they are not keeping their arms warm like pitchers do.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but I am in favor of taking the most cautious approach in these situations. MRI's aren't perfect for reading how the injury is, actually doing an exploratory is a lot more sure fire way of ensuring it's healed properly.

I'll trust the Brewer's brass on this. They have a lot to lose by not taking the most cautious approach, so I would venture to guess after reviewing his medicals, that's exactly what they feel they are doing by not having what they feel would be an unnecessary surgery at this point.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 22, 2017, 10:14 AM Post
Posts: 4
Even if he needs surgery come August or September - that should be plenty of time to be ready for next year. I believe position players only need 6-9 months to come back from Tommy John. He could always DH early next year too.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 22, 2017, 10:18 AM Post
Posts: 141
WV Brew said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This notion that the Brewers brass randomly drafted this kid without being VERY informed as to his medical situation seems very strange to me. Likewise, the idea that the Brewers brass are a bunchor of bumbling idiots that, after acquiring even more medical information, are just going to throw him on the field to play despite an obvious need for surgery is equally strange.

They looked at the medicals and re-examined the kid after the draft. If they say the elbow is good, then the elbow is good. Even so, they are not taking that for granted. They have clearly stated that he is going to start with a throwing program in Maryvale before going on. Unless one is a M.D. AND one has reviewed the medicals, then one has nothing more than conjecture to conclude future issues.


Nathan Kirby says hello.



I don't recall the Brewers coming out and saying the injury was healed with either Thornburg or Kriby. In both cases I'd bet the player had a significant say in whether they rehabbed or had surgery. Neither Thornburg or Kirby are position players. Neither I, or anyone else on this board, has reviewed the medicals of the players involved to determine how similar or dis-similar the injuries were between the three players. Having any surgery is risky and having a procedure "just to check" is a horrible idea. There is a growing opinion that surgery is not the answer.

I'm not worried in the least.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 22, 2017, 10:46 AM Post
Posts: 141
WV Brew said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This notion that the Brewers brass randomly drafted this kid without being VERY informed as to his medical situation seems very strange to me. Likewise, the idea that the Brewers brass are a bunch of bumbling idiots that, after acquiring even more medical information, are just going to throw him on the field to play despite an obvious need for surgery is equally strange.

They looked at the medicals and re-examined the kid after the draft. If they say the elbow is good, then the elbow is good. Even so, they are not taking that for granted. They have clearly stated that he is going to start with a throwing program in Maryvale before going on. Unless one is a M.D. AND one has reviewed the medicals, then one has nothing more than conjecture to conclude future issues.


Nathan Kirby says hello.


Actually, after reading up I'm not sure how Thornburg or Kirby are relevant.

Kirby had a lat strain that caused him to miss his last college season. The Brewers found the UCL injury upon his draft exam and slashed his bonus because of it. He then had TJS almost immediately (pitched a few innings). While rehabbing that surgery this spring he encountered a less serious issue that required a surgery that will probably keep him out until late in the year at best. Don't know how that relates to Hiura at all.

Thornburg actually had the same PRP injection that Hiura had a completely recovered from it and went on to pitch effectively enough to bring back a significant trade package. Here is an expert from an article on Thornburg after the trade.

"So the decision was made to shut Thornburg down for a full three months after the PRP injection. Luckily for Thornburg and the Brewers, that move worked and the former third-round draft choice was back throwing in mid-November."

His issues now are due to thoracic outlet syndrome which is a shoulder injury, not an elbow injury. Again, that seems to make the case for what Hiura did and not having surgery as opposed to having an unnecessary surgery.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 22, 2017, 9:46 PM Post
Posts: 1303
Think there are a lot of people making a bigger deal out of Hiura's injury than they probably should. Thornburg as mentioned above healed just fine. He came back throwing mid 90's and was dominant. Not sure why that was a bad decision.... Yes, he broke down again for this season but not sure if he had Tommy John, the story would be different. Bodies are different. Some pitchers arms never recover back to what they once were or they tear it again. Others go on to have even stronger arms with long lasting careers with no issues .So if it healed and he performed after....why would TJ been a better option? Now that he is injured again, why is that more the Brewers fault over Thornburg's own body. He is a little guy with effort, pumping heat.... that is a lot of stress on an elbow.

Does Hiura have the same body as Thornburg? Does he recover and self-repair the same? Does he put as much stress on his elbow throwing? Is his career reliant on throwing max effort in high leverage situations 60+ innings year? If answer is no to any of those.... why does it make sense comparing apples to oranges?

Teams don't like throwing players under the knife just to do so. In next 6 weeks, we will know how healed his arm is and what the next step forward will be. If he injuries it again and needs it TJ..... I still will have zero issue with their decision. Can't make decisions based off of a few past pitchers in our system. Everyone's body is completely different.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 23, 2017, 9:43 AM Post
Posts: 147
Location: Milwaukee
Harry Doyle's JD said:
82brewcrew82 said:
This notion that the Brewers brass randomly drafted this kid without being VERY informed as to his medical situation seems very strange to me. Likewise, the idea that the Brewers brass are a bunch of bumbling idiots that, after acquiring even more medical information, are just going to throw him on the field to play despite an obvious need for surgery is equally strange.

They looked at the medicals and re-examined the kid after the draft. If they say the elbow is good, then the elbow is good. Even so, they are not taking that for granted. They have clearly stated that he is going to start with a throwing program in Maryvale before going on. Unless one is a M.D. AND one has reviewed the medicals, then one has nothing more than conjecture to conclude future issues.

The same medical staff that went along with Thornburg not having surgery...

I'm aware a 2b won't throw as much or as hard as a pitcher, but a 2b will have many more opportunities to throw at awkward angles without proper form, which is just as dangerous as a pitching, if not more because they are not keeping their arms warm like pitchers do.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but I am in favor of taking the most cautious approach in these situations. MRI's aren't perfect for reading how the injury is, actually doing an exploratory is a lot more sure fire way of ensuring it's healed properly.

Regarding the highlighted part of your comment, what percent of 2b have elbow injuries due to throwing at awkward angles compared to pitchers? Do pitchers all throw from the same arm slot or do they range from over the top to submarine? Do 2b throw secondary pitches across the diamond that put more stress on their elbow/shoulder?

How exactly do 2b not keep their arms warm during games? These guys throw nonstop. Before BP, during IF drills (during BP), directly prior to the game and between every inning. A 2b, or any IF for that matter, throwing fourseamers from a variety of arm angles isn't anywhere near close to being more strenuous on the elbow/shoulder than what a pitcher does on the mound. And the overwhelming majority of IF throws are when they're fully set whether they're throwing across the diamond or flicking the wrist for a force out.

The Brewers said upon speaking with the Drs that he doesn't need surgery. Where did you hear that the decision was made solely based on a MRI? I would be shocked if a MLB team's medial team (more than 1 Dr) solely looked at a MRI and didn't perform a comprehensive exam. Even if the outcome changes moving forward and surgery is required the recovery isn't anywhere near close to that of a pitcher - he can have it at season's end and be ready to go by April. In the meantime he can DH to stay in the lineup while also taking grounders and doing other glove work without throwing.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 25, 2017, 10:41 AM Post
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You cannot force anyone to have surgery. Players always have the last say as to whether or not they have surgery.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 3:29 PM Post
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Watch for Lutz and Harrison to sign soon.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 3:33 PM Post
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Caden Lemons has officially signed - tweet includes signing bonus.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 4:20 PM Post
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Brewers should end up with about $1.2M to play with for the guys drafted 11-18 that remain unsigned/uncommitted.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 4:40 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
Brewers should end up with about $1.2M to play with for the guys drafted 11-18 that remain unsigned/uncommitted.


Does that include the 100K we can offer without going into our bonus pools?


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 5:06 PM Post
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That's over and above the $125k that can be offered to each pick.


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Online  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 5:46 PM Post
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Quick question what guys below 10 should we watch out for them to target.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 9:19 PM Post
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Bnowell4evr said:
reillymcshane said:
Brewers should end up with about $1.2M to play with for the guys drafted 11-18 that remain unsigned/uncommitted.


Does that include the 100K we can offer without going into our bonus pools?


And what about the taxable/non-taxable overage?


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 26, 2017, 9:22 PM Post
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brewmann04 said:
Quick question what guys below 10 should we watch out for them to target.


I'm sure they'll target all of them, how many they can sign is another question all together.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2017, 2:48 AM Post
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I'm sure they'll throw a boatload of money at all of them and whoever takes it first, gets it.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2017, 3:40 AM Post
Posts: 250
trwi7 said:
I'm sure they'll throw a boatload of money at all of them and whoever takes it first, gets it.


Uh no. I'm sure they have a much more detailed plan than that.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2017, 4:48 AM Post
Posts: 394
A quick peruse of the BA rankings gives me this:
Bullock -203
Castillo -232
Ward -233
Santana -264
Morales -469
Unless they are bluffing for leverage or have a sudden teenage change of heart:
Campbell -111
Jacobsen -154
Im sure these rankings don’t mirror the Brewers internally (ex: they probably like Lazar as a top 500 prospect to take him in round 11), but I’m sure some combination of rankings, draft round, strength of commitment, etc. will drive how the Brewers approach signing them. I'd speculate that figure out what the bonus is for that pick #, add 30-40% and that probably gets you to the ballpark.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2017, 6:34 AM Post
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Noche said:
trwi7 said:
I'm sure they'll throw a boatload of money at all of them and whoever takes it first, gets it.


Uh no. I'm sure they have a much more detailed plan than that.


We have read some pretty concrete examples of teams being in contact with players before they draft them. We know they discuss how much it is going to take to sign the player. I also know that at 18 I had zero interest in college. If someone had offered me a quarter million (plus paying for my college later if I wanted to go), I would have jumped at the chance. I'm sure I'm not unique in that.

None of those kids in the 11-18 round range have declared they absolutely will not sign (to my knowledge). That would seem to indicate they are at least open to the idea of signing. I don't know if they have the cash to sign all of them but I'd bet the Brewers think they do. I'm skeptical but I was skeptical last year too and they signed almost all of the kids who did not immediately declare they would not sign.


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Offline  Re: 2017 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 27, 2017, 11:41 AM Post
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I'm just guessing, but I don't know if there is any player unsigned (not counting the guys who have firmly said they are going to college) that we'd throw a ton of money at. Je'Von Ward is probably the most interesting player - but his ranking of around 200 (he was #233 by BA and #194 by MLP Pipeline) would have netted him around $220,000 if he had actually been picked in that slot.

So I'm just guessing that the team is going to sign several of these guys - but not for $1M or anything. It'll be $300,000 here, $200,000 there, etc.

Of course, all bets are off if Campbell or Jacobsen show a willingness to sign.


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