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The 2018 MLB Draft Thread

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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#41

Posted: May 14, 2018, 2:49 PM Post
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I would go with Beer in the first round depending on who is or isn't available. I believe Beer's upside is that of Schwarber and he is better suited at 1b than in the OF.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#42

Posted: May 14, 2018, 8:23 PM Post
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I don't know that much about the amateur players, but Seth Beer kind of scares me as a 1st round pick. Looking at his numbers, he's regressed every season. Lower average, slugging and walk rate every season. And his strikeout rate is the worst of his college career. Add in that he might be limited to 1B - it's not exactly the kind of guy I'd want to spend our top pick on. Now for later picks - 2nd round, comp pick - sure. But not in the first round.

Of course, perhaps I just don't know that much about the guy. I'm just going by stats and scouting info.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#43

Posted: May 15, 2018, 7:06 AM Post
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Two New Mocks Out this Morning.

Fangraphs
21. Milwaukee Brewers – Connor Scott, CF, Plant HS (FL)
The Brewers have been tied to a wide swath of players this spring and typically play value rather than specific demographics with high picks. They’re near the top of a run of prep bats at this point. They’ve been tied to a few names, but Scott is probably the best on the board here.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-ml ... aft-v-2-0/

Baseball America at the link below. Pay walled but if someone wants to pass along the name at least that would be nice.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... ock-draft/


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#44

Posted: May 15, 2018, 7:34 AM Post
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That BA mock is the same one you asked about a few posts above. Look back a few posts... I revealed who it was.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#45

Posted: May 15, 2018, 8:30 AM Post
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My bad. They said it was "new" when they tweeted it out. Thanks!


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#46

Posted: May 15, 2018, 5:50 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
I don't know that much about the amateur players, but Seth Beer kind of scares me as a 1st round pick. Looking at his numbers, he's regressed every season. Lower average, slugging and walk rate every season. And his strikeout rate is the worst of his college career. Add in that he might be limited to 1B - it's not exactly the kind of guy I'd want to spend our top pick on. Now for later picks - 2nd round, comp pick - sure. But not in the first round.

Of course, perhaps I just don't know that much about the guy. I'm just going by stats and scouting info.


I would only take Beer in the 1st round if there is no one else worth picking at that spot. His power is intriguing and he has shown in the past to take walks. Who knows maybe he just needs a small adjustment in his swing mechanics and he will be golden. The power is there and the patience is there maybe a team just needs to be a little patient and let the light bulb go on in his head and they have a Schwarber type of player on their hands.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#47

Posted: May 15, 2018, 8:17 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
I don't know that much about the amateur players, but Seth Beer kind of scares me as a 1st round pick. Looking at his numbers, he's regressed every season. Lower average, slugging and walk rate every season. And his strikeout rate is the worst of his college career. Add in that he might be limited to 1B - it's not exactly the kind of guy I'd want to spend our top pick on. Now for later picks - 2nd round, comp pick - sure. But not in the first round.

Of course, perhaps I just don't know that much about the guy. I'm just going by stats and scouting info.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=203447

Somewhat explained by his BABIP - .352 as a FR, .288 as a SO, .252 as a JR - although his BB rate is down slightly this year and his K rate slightly up, but still much higher BB rate than K rate. Never confuse trends with absolute value.

The truth is likely closest to his SO year... which is still pretty darned good.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#48

Posted: May 17, 2018, 8:51 AM Post
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I had the chance to see Kelenic a couple of weekends ago. If you're interesting in reading my report on him and watching the video I took, check this link (he's really, really good, and it's too bad the one year we don't pick in the top 10 he's available):

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vi ... icle=15175

We also posted a mock draft last week if you're interested in seeing that. We had the Brewers taking Logan Gilbert, although we've heard the same thing as most everyone else in that they're in on everyone:

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vi ... icle=15176

Jonathan India won't fall to the Brewers pick. He could go in the top 5-10 range now. And don't judge Trevor Larnach on the lack of production prior to this year, the dude is legit. His tools have long been known and he's finally living up to those tools by the numbers he's posting.

See Beer is one of the most discussed players I have encountered. I have compared him to a young Ben Grieve before given his tall, angular build, lack of a defensive profile, ability to take pitches and draw walks combined with the power ability. It's a difficult profile because he really doesn't offer much other than the bat, and he may not hit more than .250-.270, but he's going to hit bombs.

Everyone has their favorites and at some point I hope to share a few more of my own. I've been on a pretty good run lately picking some of the Brewers' early picks, including Hiura, Erceg and Cody Ponce, although I openly admit I don't/didn't have any inside knowledge to make those picks. Obviously picking in the 20's makes projections more difficult, but one player I really like, and most don't have him evaluated as being taken as high as No. 21, is Nick Schnell, a prep outfielder from Indiana. To give a sneak peak, here's a detailed report that will be filed on Schnell on the PG site tomorrow, but David Rawnsley sums up his talents perfectly (sounds a lot like a young Christian Yelich):

NICHOLAS SCHNELL

Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Birthdate: March 27, 2000
High School: Roncalli HS
Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.
Travel Team: Indiana Bulls
Commitment: Louisville
Projected Draft Round: 1C-2

The scouting term "projectable" is used the vast majority of the time with pitchers and probably appropriately. Young pitchers with right combination of physique and relative maturity are just going to get better and history has proven that out. Since projecting a position player has much more to do with the ability to hit rather than other tools, and hitting is notoriously hard to project, the term simply isn't used nearly as much.

Nicholas Schnell is an exception to that and he's continuing to prove that this spring by the amount of improvement he's shown just between last summer and this spring, specifically in the strength in his swing and how the ball is carrying off his bat. Not to mention the improvement in his draft stock.

Schnell was listed at 6-foot -2, 180-pounds last summer and this scout's notes at one event specifically say " Noticeably more slender/less physically mature than most peers." Schnell is a bit young for the 2018 class, he turned 18 in late March, but looks far younger physically. Yet he was good enough last summer, with five tools showing strongly, that he was selected a Perfect Game All-American.

Schnell's left handed swing has some aspects that scout's pick on, he loads deep and barred creating extra length and he often lags his barrel through the zone on pitches he could turn on with more core and lower body use to drive his bat speed. But the results speak for themselves. Last summer, Schnell showed advanced contact ability and the ball come off his barrel hard with gap power and occasional lift when he did get turned. This spring, as he gets stronger and more physically mature, the ball is rocketing off his barrel differently, even when the barrel lag is present and the ball is going to left centerfield. It's the difference between eight months of getting stronger and leaves scouts thinking about what happens if Schnell fills out to 6-foot-2, 195 to 200-pounds.

The rest of Schnell's tools are very high level. He's a 6.6 runner in the sixty, speed that is likely to maintain itself as he grows stronger. He threw 95 mph in drills at the 2017 PG National Showcase and is a low 90's thrower off the mound. Schnell also shows instincts in the outfield and will likely be able to play all three outfield positions without handicap.

Right now Schnell looks more like a 30-45 pick on day 1 of the draft that a true first rounder. But due to that remaining projection, he would be on a short list to be a June 4th surprise and move up to the right team.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#49

Posted: May 17, 2018, 11:31 AM Post
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Schnell sounds like a left handed version of Trout. Reading that description reminds me of what they said about Trout.

Not saying he is the same as Trout but a lot of similarities if I am remembering Trout's scouting report correctly.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#50

Posted: May 17, 2018, 8:42 PM Post
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They're different kind of athletes, as Schnell is more tall and slender with what I would call more 'graceful' actions, while Trout was and always has been built like a Mack truck, defined more by his high motor and energy than the ease of his actions. As far as them just scraping the surface, yes, that is what Schnell is all about, and his game has come together pretty rapidly. Even if the Brewers don't take him with their 1st rounder don't be surprised if someone else does take him right around that pick.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#51

Posted: May 18, 2018, 6:50 AM Post
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Mayo's newest Mock Draft is below.

https://www.mlb.com/news/high-school-pi ... =151437456

Has the Brewers taking Parker Meadows, OF, Grayson (Ga.) HS. Also had Schnell going 26th with the following note...

25. D-backs: Nick Schnell, OF, Roncalli HS (Ind.)

Schnell has some serious helium, with teams pouring into Indianapolis over the past few days. His name has been coming up all over the first round, and the D-backs were in heavy to see him recently.

You may once again nail a Brewers pick.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#52

Posted: May 18, 2018, 8:15 AM Post
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New BBA Mock?

https://www.baseballamerica.com/ranking ... ock-draft/


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#53

Posted: May 22, 2018, 2:23 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
I find it generally amazing how draft projections always have us taking an outfielder. "well they've done it the last few years, they'll probably just pick another outfielder". I haven't looked too heavily, are we actually being linked to any of these OF prospects or is it as simple as looking at our recent draft history?


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#54

Posted: May 22, 2018, 5:50 PM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Jacob Campbell - Catcher - Janesville Craig

Anybody know anything about Campbell? I was talking with a colleague today who attends some of the high school games in the Janesville area when he gets a chance (all sports). He said that MLB scouts were frequently at Janesville Craig games this year as they apparently have multiple players with Division 1 offers. A couple different scouts said that Campbell "will be drafted higher than most people think." All I know about Campbell is that he's supposed to have good upside as a defensive catcher and is an Illinois commit. Anyone have any commentary about him and approximate round he is expected to go?


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#55

Posted: May 22, 2018, 10:37 PM Post
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"well they've done it the last few years, they'll probably just pick another outfielder


We probably will take an outfielder. A “toolsy” one at that.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#56

Posted: May 23, 2018, 5:33 PM Post
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Keep adding the outfielder


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#57

Posted: May 23, 2018, 9:17 PM Post
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This year’s draft strikes me as still being fluid at the top and very strong in the #15-50 range. I do wish the Brewers had a higher second pick. As it is the #60 and #73 selections will still be plenty important.

I don’t think he is likely to fall to one of those picks for the Brewers, but I am a believer in RHP Blaine Knight from the University of Arkansas.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#58

Posted: May 23, 2018, 10:36 PM Post
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Casey Mize has walked on 8 batter in 89 innings this year. He's struck out 124.

Pretty amazing.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#59

Posted: May 24, 2018, 6:12 AM Post
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Round 1 Noah Naylor Has everything I like, lefty, power, premium position.


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Offline  Re: The 2018 MLB Draft Thread
#60

Posted: May 24, 2018, 8:14 AM Post
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Perfect Game has a new mock out this morning.

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/Vi ... icle=15237

This mock has the brewers taking...

21. Milwaukee Brewers | Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS (Texas)
Rodriguez may be in play even 10 or so spots higher than this pick, and it makes sense from value perspective as well a fit. He's been into the upper-90s this spring at times and has shown very good feel for his off-speed stuff, but there is the rawness to the profile.


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