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Drew Rasmussen is a Free Agent

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Online  Re: Drew Rasmussen is a Free Agent
#21

Posted: July 14, 2017, 10:58 AM Post
Posts: 428
Conlon is ranked below Bullock, Ward, and Castillo by BA without knowing any health issues. Even if the Brewers have him legitimately as a 4th round talent before medicals given the expected odds of making the majors, that’s probably not much more than 1-2 million in value. Im all for the Brewers signing him, but its unlikely to be a savvy value play unless he is the winning lottery ticket.


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Offline  Re: Drew Rasmussen is a Free Agent
#22

Posted: July 14, 2017, 3:43 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
In 1996, everyone's favorite person, Scott Boros, found a loophole in the draft rules that allowed four 1st round picks to become free agents.

The rules stipulated that draft picks had to be made a written offer within 15 days of the draft. The crazy thing was that most of the teams didn't realize this rule was in effect. A bunch of teams hadn't followed the rule. In the end, four players were declared free agents, including San Diego State first baseman Travis Lee (No. 2, Twins), Texas high school righthander John Patterson (No. 5, Expos) and Pennsylvania high school righthander Matt White (No. 7, Giants) Florida high school lefthander Bobby Seay (No. 12, White Sox).

They were the first U.S. players ever to gain free agency in the summer in which they were drafted.

Tampa signed White for a $10.2 million bonus and Seay for $3 million, while the Diamondbacks signed Lee for $10 million and Patterson for $6.075 million.

The top pick in the draft in 1996 - Kirk Bensen - got a $2M signing bonus.

BA has a good write up on this and other draft hold outs here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/to ... FHH0kP7.99

Here's the interesting part about those four.

Lee (#2 overall) - career bWAR 7.2, of which half of that came from one season (2003, age 28)
Patterson (#5 overall) - career bWAR 5.5, of which 85% came from one season (2005, age 27)
Seay (#12 overall) - career bWAR 3.0, of which almost half came from one season (2007, age 29)
White - never made the majors (Boras was worth every penny White paid him)

Only three of the four made the majors, and those three basically only had one good season each. For the $10M paid to White and Lee and the $6M paid to Patterson, teams probably would have been better off spending that money on a free agent.

One of our favorite whipping boys, Braden Looper, was the #3 overall pick that same year and had a higher career bWAR than any of those four.


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Offline  Re: Drew Rasmussen is a Free Agent
#23

Posted: July 29, 2017, 8:10 PM Post
Posts: 259
jerichoholicninja said:
Eye Black at Night said:
MilwaukeeBeers said:
IIRC Conlon is unrestricted so it doesn't count against a team's bonus pool. Wouldn't mind throwing a couple million (because it's not my money) at him. Could be a savvy move. Would be nice getting another player in the top 250. He's ranked 175 on MLB and 239 on Baseball America.

You are correct that it doesn't count against the draft bonus pool. Without knowing the exact details of the failed physical it is difficult to assess his value. It is interesting that the Orioles didn't make the minimum 40% offer which would have prevented Jack Conlon from becoming a free agent, but they weren't going to get the 4th round pick back regardless since it is unprotected. They did the kid a huge favor as he is now possibly looking at a deal in the millions. I am really curious to see how this plays out. Also agree that it would be great to see the Brewers take a shot if they have less concerns about the medicals.


Makes you wonder if in the future some guys might find ways to fudge their health to get out the draft pool and become free agents.



Seems like that's a bit far fetched. Teams read MRI's and evaluate a lot of medical data. I doubt they're going to be able to say it hurts to throw and the team is gonna pass on signing them if there isn't any matching evidence.


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