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Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011

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Offline  Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#1

Posted: December 19, 2017, 7:06 PM Post
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I came across this graph depicting total major league WAR (as calculated by Baseball Reference) among players drafted and signed by each team since 2011. It only includes draft picks that were actually signed by the drafting team (so for instance Carlos Rodon’s 4.3 WAR and Mallex Smith’s 2.6 WAR would not count towards the Brewers WAR total despite initially being drafted, but not signed by Milwaukee). It also includes all players drafted and signed regardless of which team the player went on to accrue the WAR totals with (for example Mitch Haniger counts in the Brewers total because they drafted and signed him despite the major league WAR stats coming with the D-Backs and Mariners).


Image


Among players drafted and signed by the Brewers since 2011 those that have reached the majors and recorded a career WAR total in the Baseball Reference database are listed below (draft year in parentheses):

Mitch Haniger (2012): 3.1 WAR
Brent Suter (2012): 2.2 WAR
Taylor Jungmann (2011): 1.1 WAR
Jacob Barnes (2011): 1.0 WAR
Michael Reed (2011): 0.2 WAR
Garrett Cooper (2013): 0.1 WAR
Jed Bradley (2011): 0.0 WAR
Tyler Wagner (2012): 0.0 WAR
Damien Magnifico (2012): 0.0 WAR
Anthony Banda (2012): 0.0 WAR
Barrett Astin (2013): -0.1 WAR
Jorge Lopez (2011): -0.1 WAR
David Goforth (2011): -0.4 WAR

Obviously the more recent draft classes have plenty of time yet to prove their value, and I am certainly hopeful they will. Still this graph sort of sums up how significant the gap can prove among teams that draft well over a stretch of years and those that don’t. Also in looking at the draft classes, the 2013 Brewers draft in particular stands out as providing almost no major league impact (or even hope for future major league contributors). It was obviously the same year they lacked a first round draft pick as well as the pool money affiliated with having a first round draft selection.

I think the last couple of drafts have a chance to change this trend for the Brewers. I am also impressed that they have pieced together as solid of a farm system as they have based on some of the previous poor drafts. One thing is certain, the draft matters.


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#2

Posted: December 19, 2017, 7:29 PM Post
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Thanks, Eye Black. It was interesting to see.

I think it just reinforces how barren this system was a few years ago.


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#3

Posted: December 19, 2017, 9:54 PM Post
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Below is the teams ranked by WAR from the graph above followed by how many top 5 picks they've had from 2011-2016 (I left out 2017 since no 2017 draft players have reached the majors yet). I see very little correlation between a top 5 pick and productive drafting (using the assumption your first round pick should provide most of the WAR). This is very crude and based off of not a large sample size and many of the last few draft classes are still in the minors, but it looks like a really high doesn't make much of a difference. Scouting and developing are what you need.

Bos - 0
Hou - 5
Oak - 0
Tor - 0
ChC - 2
Cle - 1
Sea - 2
Tex - 1
Stl - 0
Bal - 2
Fla - 1
SF - 0
LAD - 0
Col - 3
AZ - 1
NYM - 0
Was - 0
SD - 0
Pit - 1
ChW - 1
Det - 0
NYY - 0
Atl - 1
Phi - 1
Min - 3
Mil - 1
KC - 2
LAA - 0
TB - 0
Cin - 1


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#4

Posted: December 20, 2017, 6:45 PM Post
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The Seid era really was full of a lot of misses. No wonder we had the struggles we did before the rebuild. Hopefully with our new staff we can end up on other side of the spectrum


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#5

Posted: December 20, 2017, 9:12 PM Post
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A bit misleading as HS picks from 2014 are not even required to be protected in the Rule 5 yet, much less expected to be in the majors. Really, this is relevant for three drafts - 2011-2013, with college picks from 2014 just breaking into the majors and top-10/1st round college picks at that (the Brewers invested in HS picks in 2014 - Medeiros, Gatewood, Harrison, Stokes, Yamamoto). Hell, Woodruff was drafted in 2014 and he's just breaking into the majors.

I think a more relevant comparison would be 2009-2014; keeping in mind that 2009-2011 there was no bonus pool and in 2009 there was no draft pick compensation for unsigned picks, still giving significant advantages to teams willing to push the boundaries of the rules (Boston, Houston, Pittsburgh, etc.) by signing players for way over slot. The Brewers chose to be good corporate citizens because they needed the rules to change, thus they had to be "do as I do". Case in point, 2011 - if you rank players by signing bonuses, Jungmann and Bradley are actually in the 20's, not #12 and #15. But the Brewers had to draft guys who would sign close to recommended slot; they couldn't complain about being disadvantaged, then go out and give Josh Bell $5M to sign as a 2nd round pick.


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#6

Posted: February 02, 2018, 8:11 PM Post
Posts: 4022
jerichoholicninja said:
Below is the teams ranked by WAR from the graph above followed by how many top 5 picks they've had from 2011-2016 (I left out 2017 since no 2017 draft players have reached the majors yet). I see very little correlation between a top 5 pick and productive drafting (using the assumption your first round pick should provide most of the WAR). This is very crude and based off of not a large sample size and many of the last few draft classes are still in the minors, but it looks like a really high doesn't make much of a difference. Scouting and developing are what you need.

Bos - 0
Hou - 5
Oak - 0
Tor - 0
ChC - 2
Cle - 1
Sea - 2
Tex - 1
Stl - 0
Bal - 2
Fla - 1
SF - 0
LAD - 0
Col - 3
AZ - 1
NYM - 0
Was - 0
SD - 0
Pit - 1
ChW - 1
Det - 0
NYY - 0
Atl - 1
Phi - 1
Min - 3
Mil - 1
KC - 2
LAA - 0
TB - 0
Cin - 1


Well Houston did win the WS, Cubs year before. 7 of the 29picks.

The Fact KC won a WS with their draft results, Grienke trade much?

They should have these 6 year lists and the bottom team should be forced to fire any and all that are intimately involved with that horrible result and Banned.


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#7

Posted: February 09, 2018, 11:54 AM Post
Posts: 3408
Looking back at the 2013 draft, I think Taylor Williams is likely to emerge as a very solid bullpen asset.

What is the deal with Devin Williams?


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Offline  Re: Total WAR by Draft Picks since 2011
#8

Posted: February 09, 2018, 9:29 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
What is the deal with Devin Williams?

He injured his elbow pitching in an inter-squad game last March and had Tommy John surgery. I don’t believe he is expected to be back throwing until sometime after the start of the season.


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