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#41

Posted: April 01, 2003, 6:33 AM Post
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There really isn't a direct correlation between stature & velocity. I've read about big, hulking pitchers that can't throw harder than the mid-80s, yet still draw interest because of their size. They are at an immediate advantage given the physics of how & where the ball is released from someone 6'9" as opposed to someone 5'9" as we talked about last year on the minor league forum.

Jeff D'Amico is a pretty good example of this. Jeff is something like 6'7" in the mid to upper 200s, but I don't believe he ever threw harder than 90-91. He relied on changing speeds & command.

I haven't heard anything wrong with his mechanics, but that doesn't mean there isn't something there. Georgia Tech is a pretty big & prestigious D1 program and you would think that if there was an issue with his delivery, they would have the experience & knowledge to locate it & try to correct it.


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#42

Posted: April 01, 2003, 8:00 AM Post
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They are at an immediate advantage given the physics of how & where the ball is released from someone 6'9" as opposed to someone 5'9" as we talked about last year on the minor league forum.

Is that thread still around? A quick refresher might be in order, if it isn't.


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#43

Posted: April 01, 2003, 8:40 AM Post
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A taller pitcher's release point is closer to the plate. First of all, you take in the height of a pitcher, as a pitcher's body will extend towards home plate when releasing the ball. Not only will his legs & torso project such a pitcher to be closer to the plate than someone shorter, but his arms are naturally going to be longer as well. This difference may only be a few inches if that in most cases, but is probably significant between someone like Shane Nance, who is 5'8" I believe, to someone like Kyle Bakker at 6'9". Since home plate is only 66'6" away from the pitching rubber, the pitcher puts himself at an advantage over the hitter by shortening that distance with his stature.

So, a fastball coming from a guy like Kyle Bakker may look faster than one coming from a little guy like Shane Nance.

Of course, there is a lot more that factors into it, such as natural deception, arm speed, etc., but this is the basic reason why taller pitchers are considered to be at a natural advantage.

On top of that, taller pitchers with a stronger frame are often thought of to be able to handle the physical stress of pitching more so than smaller guys, since smaller guys are often "max-effort" types that put everything they have into their delivery to throw the ball as hard as possible. Bigger bodies are often thought to have better endurance which is why you hear terms such as "workhorse."


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#44

Posted: April 01, 2003, 9:49 AM Post
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Thanks, colby.

It might be interesting to have a section on a few of those items under the draft coverage.


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#45

Posted: April 02, 2003, 7:32 AM Post
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Hey guys since we are doing these great updates that you are providing do any of you know how Justin Barnes is doing, and what about Adam Mannon?

These two are both players that we may very well end up with before the draft.

Thanks!


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#46

Posted: April 02, 2003, 9:43 AM Post
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Thanks for your interest in our DFEs BrewDude. I would definitely post the stats of these players if they were easy to access. Unfortunately, they're not, as the schools they attend just don't have the stat & info pages the bigger D1 programs do.

I am currently working on a DFE recap story to let everybody know how these guys are faring so far this year, so keep your eyes open for that coming up in the next couple of weeks.

And if I had to guess, I'd say Dana Eveland & Justin Barnes will end up in the Brewers organization before May is over.


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#47

Posted: April 02, 2003, 4:25 PM Post
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Southern updated their stats today, here's your Weeks update:

.500/.597/.989 in 94 ABs (12 ABs in the past week). 11 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 21 BBs, 9 Ks, & 16 for 16 in SBs.


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#48

Posted: April 02, 2003, 7:59 PM Post
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I think I'm part of the ever-shrinking minority that just doesn't quite trust the Rickie Weeks bandwagon. I can't quite put my finger on it, but there is something about "toolsy" being associated with a college player that just doesn't jive with me. It is very hard to look past the stats, but I'd much rather take my chances with Milledge or Young, or even better, Loewen. Whenever I think about drafting college hitters in the first round, well, you all think the same thing when you think about the Brewers and drafting, Chad Green and Antone Williamson. Not that I'm comparing Green/Williamson with Weeks as hitters, but the spectre is still there. Just like how the Brewers have no luck with their 3rd round selections, the college hitter thing isn't working out for them either.

From a totally non draftnik point of view, my top two guys on the board are Milledge and Sleeth. If Loewen becomes available, my two guys would be Loewen and Sleeth. Still a long time to go, I know. Not to get ahead of myself, but Parra and Loewen. Whee.


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#49

Posted: April 04, 2003, 6:10 AM Post
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But Green and Williamson were both "bargain" signings, IIRC, and I'm a little leery of laying it all down on college hitters.


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#50

Posted: April 04, 2003, 2:03 PM Post
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Normally deferring to the all-powerful colbyjack on this forum, but I thought I'd chime in with an update on the one New England draft-and-follow from the Brewers' 2002 draft, 42nd round pick Neil Avery, an 18-year-old LHP now in his first year at UConn-Avery Point, a two-year Div. II school.

Avery's team went 10-0 on their Florida swing and is now 14-0. Avery was the Opening Day starter and has now pitched 21 innings, allowing only three runs (only one earned), eight hits and four walks while striking out 20.

Avery pitched high school ball in the town next door to my own, and I hope to speak with him (or his dad) in May, prior to the draft.

Here's my question for Ohio Scout or others -- at what point does level of play get factored into evaluation? Most high school phenoms will naturally dominate their competition -- so is it strictly a matter of tool evaluation, radar guns, and stop watches at all levels but Division I, perhaps, where level of competition may have a greater effect? Thanks.


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#51

Posted: April 04, 2003, 2:21 PM Post
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One other question for Ohio Scout:

How much should we focus on talent as opposed to a "max effort" player?

I'm asking this because we can look at someone like Shane Nance (www.brewerfan.net/ViewPla...ayerId=354 ), who racked up pretty good - almost dominating numbers - in the minors as a reliever. The numbers, in fact, have had me suggesting that the Brewers should see if he could work out as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Similarly, to bring up another point of confusion, Jeff Pickler's consistent numbers (A July, 2001 article I wrote is at www.brewerfan.net/fullArt...ticleId=23 ) in the Brewers system from 1999 through 2001 had me convinced that he should have had an opportunity to win the second base job in Milwaukee as opposed to being exposed in the Rule V draft at the end of 2001 (he's now in the Texas farm system, performing at roughly the same level he did in the Brewers system).

How much credit should a "max effort" player get for the "max effort"? How much talent would warrant leaving a "max effort" player behind?


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#52

Posted: April 04, 2003, 4:17 PM Post
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#1 - I admit to liking statistics for high level college players. I don't think that I, nor other scouts, really care much about stats in high school or DII programs. When it comes down to it you have to project players out professionally and present-day tools, projectability, and skills are what make most of the difference. That's what really matters when looking at amateurs.

#2 - I'm not sure I quite understand what you're trying to convey with "max effort" players. To me, effort is how much effort a player puts into his play on the field. Mark Prior does not break a sweat -- very little effort. Someone like, say, Chris Snelling gets hurt a lot because he plays with so much effort to compensate for a lack of physical tools.

I think that you mean how much effort someone puts in off the field it depends on organizational philosophy. Drafting talented players that don't want to work off the field isn't a good idea. If you draft hard workers that can't play you get very little and no trade value. There is a ton of grey area with this subject and I don't think I can really answer it. You've gotta have a good mixture. One side more heavily weighted towards the other isn't good. When you draft players, most scouts look at the talent and hope for a maturation process which often comes around.


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#53

Posted: April 04, 2003, 4:23 PM Post
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Your definition of effort was close to what I had in mind, and it answered my questions.

Thanks.


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#54

Posted: April 07, 2003, 1:42 AM Post
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As cress already noted, Florida State ended Sleeth's record unbeaten streak. Too bad, as you would like to see Sleeth beat one of the tougher teams in the nation. His line on the game:

8 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 8 K, 6 BB, 2.25 ERA on the year

Brad Sullivan also got knocked around pretty hard.

5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 K, 6 BB, 2.27 ERA on the year

Both uncharacteristically gave up a lot of walks.

Kyle Bakker, who is one Katuluu's, Toby's & my hopeful favorites to fall to our 2nd round pick, won his 5th game yesterday:

6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, 4.29 ERA on the year

Bakker needs to pick his game back up, as he's been giving up a lot of runs recently despite being 5-0.

Tim Stauffer has probably been the most impressive pitcher statistically this season, however his most recent win came against Rhode Island. He tossed his 4th consecutive CG (7 innings as part of a DH) & struck out 11 batters. He is now the all-time strikeout leader at Richmond. His line on the year:

1.90 ERA, 52 IP, 79 K, 54 H, 6 BB

He doesn't have the pure stuff of Sleeth or Sullivan, but he sets up hitters perfectly & has outstanding command that allows him to go deep in ballgames every time he's out there. The 6 walks in 52 innings of work is enough to strongly consider drafting him 2nd overall. If Loewen signs with the Orioles & Weeks goes #1 overall, Stauffer is turning into my favorite to be our first round pick.

Adam Loewen, from last Wednesday:

6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 11 K, 2 BB

He's starting to give up more runs, hits & walks in recent outings, but still is pretty much dominating the competition. He also has gotten really hot at the plate. The importance of the Friday night starter must not be as great at the JC level since Loewen is now pitching in the middle of the week.

Rickie Weeks' stats should be updated within the next couple of days.


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#55

Posted: April 08, 2003, 6:20 AM Post
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Your weekly Rickie Weeks update...

.510/.611/.980 in 102 ABs-11 2B, 5 3B, 9 HR, 25 BB, 10 K, 18 for 18 in SBs.

Just 8 ABs this past week, adding a triple, 4 walks & 2 stolen bases.


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#56

Posted: April 13, 2003, 2:21 PM Post
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Cress already filled us in on Sleeth & Stauffer on separate threads. Here's Adam Loewen's most recent line:

8 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 4 BB


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#57

Posted: April 15, 2003, 3:57 AM Post
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Brewerfan's # 5 high school product, Massachusetts' RHP Jeff Allison, made his season debut only on Monday, just another indication of the disadvantage kids from northern climates are at in the overall development process. Probably a moot point here in terms of Brewer interest, since Allison will certainly fall by mid-way in the first round, but doesn't really qualify as a Top Two pick:

Most eyes were on Jeff Allison, a senior pitcher who is regarded by Baseball America as one of the top pitching prospects in the country. Yesterday, he guided visiting Peabody to a 7-0 win over Greater Boston League rival Everett.

Allison's pitching line read 7 innings, 2 hits, 0 earned runs, 1 walk, and 17 strikeouts. He also helped himself out at the plate, breaking up a 1-0 game in the fifth by hitting a grand slam.

''Every time he pitches this year he'll have an entourage of scouts watching,'' Peabody coach Ed Nizwantowski said. ''Today, he had 23 scouts there and they had him clocked at 94 miles per hour.''


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#58

Posted: April 15, 2003, 4:08 AM Post
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Thanks MassBrew. Allison's another guy similar to Delmon Young & Lastings Milledge that seems to be sliding, or has slid in rankings because he has been on the scene longer than others. A few prep pitcher in Jared Hughes & Andrew Miller jumped ahead of Allison over the winter with strong showings in showcases & tournaments, while Allison has been going out & proving his worth for several years now.

If he's already throwing 94, that's a great sign. While Hughes & Miller might have the more appealing packages of size & stuff, I've seen many people argue that Allison is simply the best of them all. I've seen comparisons to the Royals 6th overall pick last year, Zack Greinke, for his advanced feel for pitching.

As for northern kids, Chris Lubanski is another one (from PA) that is off to a great start & is drawing large scouting crowds at each & every game (the ones that aren't rained/snowed out). The guys that finish their seasons strong are often the ones rewarded the most on draft day.


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#59

Posted: April 17, 2003, 4:43 AM Post
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Loewen's line on the year:

42.2 IP, 14 H, 6 ER, 14 BB, 49 K, 1.28 ERA

C'mon Angelos, keep playing low-ball...


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#60

Posted: April 17, 2003, 4:58 AM Post
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C'mon Angelos, keep playing low-ball...

My understanding is that the Orioles are not able to negotiate with him until the end of his season. Now I believe you brought up a problem with the JC playoffs regarding the draft, so I am not sure when Loewen's season might be done, but I would guess somewhere in mid-May if they don't go to the playoffs. Given that the draft would only be a few weeks away, Adam then has to decide on taking the Orioles money or negotiating with either Milwaukee or Tampa Bay (depending on who drafts him) and hoping to get slightly better money. Since the money might not be that different (I am assuming the Orioles will have to move into the $4M ballpark if they have any chance to sign him) then he really has to decide on organization as the main point of whether to sign with Baltimore or not. If we are lucky and Angelos is much more interested in spending that $4M on a FA stud (Vlad?) than a teenager prospect than we may have a good chance. It will definitely be exciting to watch the developments or lack of. I'm keeping everything crossed including my twisted sense of humor ;) .

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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