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2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5 [7/5 -- 1st rounder Turang signs]

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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 07, 2018, 9:32 PM Post
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I am going to assume this is just posturing, but it isn’t exactly what I hoped to read either...

Tigers remain optimistic about prized recruit Brice Turang picking college over pros

LSU believes there’s still a possibility Brice Turang — one of the top high school prospects in the country — forgoes a huge payday in the pros to come to Baton Rouge in the fall.

The LSU signee was selected 21st overall in the MLB draft by the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this week, a slot that values him at $3,013,600.

But coach Paul Mainieri said that number is well below Turang’s asking price, leaving open the possibility he plays at LSU next spring.

It might be a long shot, but Mainieri is holding out hope Turang may turn down the multi-million dollar deal.

“I don't know what’s going to happen,” Mainieri said. “I’ve talked to Brice twice since the draft. He’s not sure what’s going to happen.

“I think there’s still a possibility that he comes to school. I’m not going to say it’s 75-percent probability. I’m not saying it’s 50-percent probability. It might be 25-percent probability. But for him to come to school, he’s going to have to walk away from a lot of money. … He’d have to really be gambling on himself that three years from now he’s going to be a much better player, worth a lot more and travel through the minor leagues at a rocket pace.”

The shortstop out of Carona, California, was projected as a potential No. 1 overall pick throughout high school, but an underwhelming senior season prompted a brief slide on draft day.

Before the draft started, Mainieri figured the odds of Turang making it to LSU depended on where he was selected and whom he was selected by.

Knowing Turang was asking for a large sum of money to bypass college, Mainieri figured the only teams with a shot at the prep infielder were the ones with large bonus pools that could be manipulated to fit Turang's demands.

If a player selected in the first 10 rounds doesn't sign, his pick's value is subtracted from his club's pool.

However, the Brewers have one of the smaller pools in the league at just $6,611,900 to sign all picks in the first 10 rounds.

“For three years he’s been hearing he’s going to be the first player taken in the draft,” Mainieri said. “So when we signed him in November, I thought there was very little chance, 5 percent chance, that he'd be coming to school.”


If the Brewers weren’t able to come to an agreement with Brice Turang they would receive the #22 selection in the 2019 MLB Draft as compensation.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 07, 2018, 9:38 PM Post
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I can see the skepticism in Turang's bat. Its just off. Gray looks slightly better. Bello's swing looks the most promising. But, defensively, the two throws in his video were off mark one left/one right by a lot. Gray looked better defensively in motion. Turang smoothly the best.

Didnt see a lot of movement in the pitcher's vids. The one kids arm seem rather violent but well locating. I would wonder if his motion is repeatable on secondary pitches without tipping off.
Overall I think in short video, Gray has highest ceiling, Bello 2nd, Turang third.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 07, 2018, 10:10 PM Post
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Turang is signing in my opinion, it makes no sense that he wouldn’t. The Brewers know Turang and have know him fairly closely for years. He sounds like he was #1 on their board of realistic players they had a chance at. I’m pretty confident they asked him what his asking price is.

If he doesn’t sign he had a major change of heart post draft, in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 07, 2018, 10:22 PM Post
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Turang’s bat and swing had scouts drowning before this spring. He may have lost it a bit this spring but it’s still there. His bat is promising still. Gray offers more punch but not the contact ability. Bello has pretty nice compact swing that he can spray & drive to both fields. Think his bat could play well & perform like Stokes.

As for signing, Turang is going to sign I truly believe. He’s known for awhile now this is where he’d be drafted. He has built great relationship with Crew. College coach of course is holding out hope.... but something really wrong would need to happen for Turang to end up there.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 07, 2018, 11:37 PM Post
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It's LSU vs. the Brewers. This article seems to imply that Turang has been looking for an $8m bonus (that's Casey Mize territory!)....Brewers don't even have that in their entire pool.

LSU did give up on Elijah Cabell (Brewers 14th rounder) though...it says he is signing with the Brewers. Not sure where all of this overslot money is going to come from. Should be interesting to see how we sign our guys...

http://sports.usatoday.com/2018/06/07/o ... g-players/


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 08, 2018, 6:46 AM Post
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I would not have the stones to turn down at least $3 million dollars.


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Online  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 08, 2018, 7:19 AM Post
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The last time a first round pick did not sign was 2015, when the 35th overall pick Kyle Funkhouser did not sign with the Dodgers.

Anything's possible but teams are getting so good at figuring out draft pools down to the penny now that I think it would be absolutely stunning if Turang did not sign. The LSU coach said maybe 25% chance of Turang going to LSU... I'd say it's closer to 0.25%.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 08, 2018, 8:27 AM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
I can see the skepticism in Turang's bat. Its just off. Gray looks slightly better. Bello's swing looks the most promising. But, defensively, the two throws in his video were off mark one left/one right by a lot. Gray looked better defensively in motion. Turang smoothly the best.

Didnt see a lot of movement in the pitcher's vids. The one kids arm seem rather violent but well locating. I would wonder if his motion is repeatable on secondary pitches without tipping off.
Overall I think in short video, Gray has highest ceiling, Bello 2nd, Turang third.


Turang changed his swing, increasing the uppercut to try to increase home runs. It hasn't worked. Scouts loved his previous swing. I'm guessing the Brewers will convince him to go back to that level swing, and he becomes a draft steal.

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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 08, 2018, 10:40 AM Post
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And That said:
The last time a first round pick did not sign was 2015, when the 35th overall pick Kyle Funkhouser did not sign with the Dodgers.

And it cost him $1M to do so, as he got $750K from the Tigers the next year instead of the $1.7M the Dodgers offered him.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 08, 2018, 3:28 PM Post
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Second time through MLB Draft produces more emotions for Aaron Ashby

Ton more quotes here...


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 08, 2018, 8:40 PM Post
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Never Outhustled said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
I can see the skepticism in Turang's bat. Its just off. Gray looks slightly better. Bello's swing looks the most promising. But, defensively, the two throws in his video were off mark one left/one right by a lot. Gray looked better defensively in motion. Turang smoothly the best.

Didnt see a lot of movement in the pitcher's vids. The one kids arm seem rather violent but well locating. I would wonder if his motion is repeatable on secondary pitches without tipping off.
Overall I think in short video, Gray has highest ceiling, Bello 2nd, Turang third.


Turang changed his swing, increasing the uppercut to try to increase home runs. It hasn't worked. Scouts loved his previous swing. I'm guessing the Brewers will convince him to go back to that level swing, and he becomes a draft steal.


Swing/bat speed is where I see lacking. He probably beat a lot of balls in to the ground and changed the swing to maybe hit some HRs, only he doesn't have the bat speed to hit the ball over the wall. Without some gains, he'll be an Eric Sogard type of player stats. Sorry to be very negative on this 1st pick. Gray and Bello have far more bat speed tools to at least think they'll hit some HRs. Hope Turang gives a great batter eye where he can be .280/.375/.335 to at least approach .700 OPS


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 09, 2018, 4:21 AM Post
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Justin Jarvis, 5th round HS RHP from North Carolina, to sign with the Crew, swayed by MLB's scholarship program


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Online  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 09, 2018, 8:10 AM Post
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Summary of the Brewers draft from baseball america

Milwaukee Brewers

Story of Their Draft: The Brewers took advantage of the industry developing prospect fatigue with a few big-name players, and nabbed SS Brice Turang (1) with the 21st pick of the draft and Joe Gray (2) with the 60th. Turang was seen as a top-10 player in this class last summer, but had a mediocre spring, while Gray oozes with upside and has first-round tools but hit questions that he’s seemed to slowly answer throughout the fall and spring.

Keep An Eye On: LHP Drew Rasmussen (6) has had two Tommy John surgeries already, but has fantastic makeup that’s necessary to come back from multiple surgeries and big time stuff when he’s healthy. OF Elijah Cabell has tools similar to Gray, so if Milwaukee is able to sign him in the 14th round, that’s a huge steal on talent alone.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 09, 2018, 4:50 PM Post
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Watching the local news video from Hawaii about Micah Bello (linked in the other thread), and I'm extremely disappointed we didn't also draft pitcher Bubba Ho'opi'i-Tuionetoa [sad]


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 10, 2018, 6:58 PM Post
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This Twitter Link includes the video footage of the LSU coach talking about Brice Turang’s chances of enrolling at LSU.

I agree with those that point out the odds remain very high the Brewers sign Turang regardless of what the LSU coach is saying.

Even if for some reason the Brewers don’t sign Turang after offering him at least the full slot value, they would likely end up with 3 picks in the top 40 of the 2019 MLB Draft. They would get the #22 pick next year as compensation for not signing Turang as well as whatever pick they receive based on record (likely somewhere between #18-26), and a Competitive Balance Round A draft selection (one of six teams) that will draft from somewhere around picks #35-41.

So while I really, really want the Brewers to sign Turang, I also wouldn’t be devastated if they ended up with the alternative.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 10, 2018, 8:30 PM Post
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I gotta believe the kid will sign. You might see posturing both ways, because both sides have leverage. But, $3 million in your pocket now represents money that can get to work for you. It may have a future value in three years that is higher where he won’t make up the difference even if he goes high.

In that regard, if Turang goes to college, he could end up going where Swanson went a couple of years ago. Or he could go in the fourth round where Drew Rasmussen went. Sure, he’s going to think that’s not going to happen, but not everything is in your control in life.

If cooler heads prevail, he signs slightly above slot, taking savings from Bello or something of that nature.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 10, 2018, 10:04 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
This Twitter Link includes the video footage of the LSU coach talking about Brice Turang’s chances of enrolling at LSU.

I agree with those that point out the odds remain very high the Brewers sign Turang regardless of what the LSU coach is saying.

Even if for some reason the Brewers don’t sign Turang after offering him at least the full slot value, they would likely end up with 3 picks in the top 40 of the 2019 MLB Draft. They would get the #22 pick next year as compensation for not signing Turang as well as whatever pick they receive based on record (likely somewhere between #18-26), and a Competitive Balance Round A draft selection (one of six teams) that will draft from somewhere around picks #35-41.

So while I really, really want the Brewers to sign Turang, I also wouldn’t be devastated if they ended up with the alternative.


This sums up my feelings as well. I don't really love Turang as a prospect, but also recognize that I know basically nothing.

Given they'd get 22 next year I can live with it either way


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 10, 2018, 10:34 PM Post
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I’m surprised with the amount of people who aren’t very excited about Turang as a prospect. I get he doesn’t have elite bat speed but outside of that he offers a ton! He has elite contact & I believe only struck out like 10 times in his high school career (even at showcases showed great plate discipline & rarely k’d). His speed & defense is a game changer as well. Since he was a freshman scouts drooled over him & he was an elite prospect. His senior year wasn’t what they hoped but it wasn’t bad by any means. He made a change to his swing a bit & didn’t go to plan. That is correctable for an 18 year old coming into the pros.

His swing has always been compared to Yelich who we all love. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t sign but just don’t see that happening. He’s very close with Brewers & their scouts.


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Online  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 11, 2018, 10:52 AM Post
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Draft recap from Minor League Ball

Milwaukee Brewers

Best Pick: Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS (CA) – Round 1, Pick 21 – Viewed by many as the best pure shortstop in the draft, assuming Nick Madrigal is a second baseman, Turang slid to the latter half of round one. Featuring plus speed with an arm that can play on the left side of the diamond and a good glove, he should be able to stick at short. He has an advanced eye at the plate, but his weight flows out over the front foot too often. When his balance is good he barrels up the ball with consistency. He will never be a power hitter, but he can put the ball in both gaps. The value of this pick will be determined largely on his ability to improve his plate balance and how many home runs he can contribute. I would pencil him in as a future regular at short.

Reach: Micah Bello, OF, Hilo HS (HI) – Competitive Balance B, Pick 73 – It is always hard to get a good read on a player coming out of an area with limited top tier talent, and Bello is just that coming out of Hawaii. He held his own at the Area Code Games but the bat is long and will be a problem against good velocity. He starts with an open stance and never gets all the way back to level, leaving him susceptible to swinging through pitches on the outer half. He doesn’t have much in terms of power but does have plus speed to go with an above average arm and could stick in center. I see him turning into an athletic fourth outfielder as I am just not a believer in the bat.

Sleeper: Drew Rasmussen, RHP, Oregon State – Round 6, Pick 185 – Following a dominant freshman year, Rasmussen has taken the hill just 14 times over the past three years. Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Rays took Rasmussen 31 overall a year ago but chose not to sign him after looking at his MRIs. Their concerns were proven to be justified as he had to undergo a second TJ surgery and missed all of 2018. When healthy Rasmussen can sit up to 96 while touching 98. He has a slider that can be an above average pitch and a change that can become average in time. He fights his front foot some as it can land stiff but, if he stays healthy, he could easily become a very good fourth starter.

Deep Sleeper: Korry Howell, SS, Kirkwood CC (IA) – Round 12, Pick 365 – The hands start too far back and off the body with stiffness in his wrists, but that Howell still put up very good numbers this year. He is quite lean and there is some thought he could become an average power hitter if his approach at the plate improves enough to allow the barrel to meet the ball with more consistency. In the field he can definitely stick at short given his athleticism and soft hands with the glove, but the arm looks more like a second baseman. Howell is all projection and potential, but that is exactly what you are looking for when selecting a JC player in the 12th round.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: June 11, 2018, 9:21 PM Post
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Nothing new, but notable that Adam McCalvy hasn’t heard much on the Turang front...

We haven't heard a peep on social media from Brewers No. 1 draft pick Brice Turang. Shouldn't be surprising; he has Casey Close as an advisor and a strong commitment to LSU if he doesn't sign by July 6. $3M is a lot of money to pass up, however.


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