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2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5 [7/5 -- 1st rounder Turang signs]

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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 12:46 PM Post
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They now have $4MM to offer him, which I can't believe he'd turn down.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 12:47 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have.

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 12:56 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
And That said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have.

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.


I felt like with the bonus pool caps, that whole going down to the wire thing changed. I remember when we signed Bradley/Jungmann, I recall negotiations not really even starting until a few hours before the deadline or something weird like that. It's obvious we can offer X, the only variable in play might be trying to save some for Daniel.

Here's hoping it works out, I know you're right that most end up signing. I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign. Maybe it's just how I'm wired, but I can't understand turning down $4 million. Put it in super safe investments and live off $100k a year for life money at that age, without ever having to work if you don't want to. Turning it down, best case scenario is he goes to college and kills it...and gets $7 million in 3 years. Worst case...he gets a college education and $10k signing bonus as a senior if he's terrible or gets hurt.


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Online  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 1:02 PM Post
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I believe only three picks in the entire first 10 rounds last year didn't sign. I think it's been 3-4 years since a first round pick hasn't signed for non-medical reasons.

If you have time to negotiate an extra $50K-100K, go for it.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 1:02 PM Post
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As the 21st pick in the draft, there is very little incentive for him to go to school since there isn't much upward movement available to him. It's annoying that it is taking so long for him to sign though, I agree. Hopefully he signs in the next couple of days so we have a little more time to throw some of our remaining money at some higher round draftees to sign them away.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 1:03 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign.

The last unsigned MLB first-round pick was in 2015, Kyle Funkhouser at 35 overall.

Between 2016 and 2017, of all the players drafted by all the teams in the first ten rounds, five did not sign.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 1:09 PM Post
Posts: 4212
Location: New Berlin, WI
And That said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign.

The last unsigned MLB first-round pick was in 2015, Kyle Funkhouser at 35 overall.

Between 2016 and 2017, of all the players drafted by all the teams in the first ten rounds, five did not sign.


Jeez, so it really is all posturing and non-sense(from my perspective). I can understand the player side though, they get one chance to negotiate this and for all they know...this is the only real pro baseball money they ever get.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 2:50 PM Post
Posts: 7746
KeithStone53151 said:
And That said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have.

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.


I felt like with the bonus pool caps, that whole going down to the wire thing changed. I remember when we signed Bradley/Jungmann, I recall negotiations not really even starting until a few hours before the deadline or something weird like that. It's obvious we can offer X, the only variable in play might be trying to save some for Daniel.

Here's hoping it works out, I know you're right that most end up signing. I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign. Maybe it's just how I'm wired, but I can't understand turning down $4 million. Put it in super safe investments and live off $100k a year for life money at that age, without ever having to work if you don't want to. Turning it down, best case scenario is he goes to college and kills it...and gets $7 million in 3 years. Worst case...he gets a college education and $10k signing bonus as a senior if he's terrible or gets hurt.


Living off $100k per year would last ~20-30 years, definitely not for life.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 02, 2018, 4:07 PM Post
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DHonks said:
KeithStone53151 said:
And That said:
More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.


I felt like with the bonus pool caps, that whole going down to the wire thing changed. I remember when we signed Bradley/Jungmann, I recall negotiations not really even starting until a few hours before the deadline or something weird like that. It's obvious we can offer X, the only variable in play might be trying to save some for Daniel.

Here's hoping it works out, I know you're right that most end up signing. I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign. Maybe it's just how I'm wired, but I can't understand turning down $4 million. Put it in super safe investments and live off $100k a year for life money at that age, without ever having to work if you don't want to. Turning it down, best case scenario is he goes to college and kills it...and gets $7 million in 3 years. Worst case...he gets a college education and $10k signing bonus as a senior if he's terrible or gets hurt.


Living off $100k per year would last ~20-30 years, definitely not for life.


2.5M (after tax, etc) invested at 4% means you have 100k to live off without touching the principle. He really would be a fool to turn down a 4M offer.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 7:58 AM Post
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The Brewers can offer Turang up to $3,613,695.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 9:23 AM Post
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What happens if it takes more than that?


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 9:24 AM Post
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Then they won't sign him.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 1:41 PM Post
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What a disappointment in not signing that guy. Boy do we seem to squander first round picks.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 1:49 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
What a disappointment in not signing that guy. Boy do we seem to squander first round picks.

Turang has not not been signed. We don't know if he's signing or not. I don't think there's overwhelming evidence that he won't sign.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 2:13 PM Post
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And That said:
Brew4U said:
What a disappointment in not signing that guy. Boy do we seem to squander first round picks.

Turang has not not been signed. We don't know if he's signing or not. I don't think there's overwhelming evidence that he won't sign.


Yeah, I’m probably jumping the gun a bit. Reading too much twitter I guess.


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Online  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 03, 2018, 4:31 PM Post
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History is not on the side of 1st round picks who refuse to sign. I hope Turang realizes that.

Given that it's been three years since a first round pick hasn't signed (and it cost Funkhouser ~$1M by not doing so), I'd put the odds of Turang not signing at around 2% (meaning 98% chance he signs).


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 04, 2018, 6:25 PM Post
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Isn't the deadline to sign today? Or did I read that wrong somewhere?


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 04, 2018, 6:26 PM Post
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Oops... the deadline is 5pm EST on Friday, not today.

Hopefully he signs


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 05, 2018, 11:16 AM Post
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I'm sure it is somewhere in the 24 pages, but if they don't sign him, they get a draft pick next year that is one pick later than he was this year, right?

Plus they would have whatever pick they have from where they finish this year, right?

If so, I assume it is too early to say how deep a draft next year will be, right?

I assume you would rather spread out your picks, but there is also something to be said for having multiple guys coming up to the big league club at the same time while getting paid pre-arby salary. Not that you can assume two high schoolers drafted in the first round together, would end up on the same timeline.


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Offline  Re: 2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
Posted: July 05, 2018, 1:38 PM Post
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Report: ‘Optimism’ that Brewers will sign first rounder Brice Turang


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