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2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#41

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:32 PM Post
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From FanGraphs draft rankings...

14. Garrett Mitchell

TLDR
Teams had $1 million evals on Mitchell out of high school but several also had concerns about his hit tool and he ended up at UCLA. He has huge raw power and straight line speed but his swing has generated mixed opinions for a while now.

Full Report
Note the gap between Mitchell's projected game power output and his raw juice, one that probably needs a swing change to close. Curt, punchy, and geared for gap contact, Mitchell's current cut is more fluid and dynamic than it was in high school, when teams had million-dollar evals on him despite largely taking issue with his swing efficacy, but he still has limited power utility on pitches away from him. The swing changes Mitchell made at UCLA are perhaps evidence he can make more as a pro, but I think this gap approach works fine and is best depoyed by sprinters like Mitchell, who has retained his plus-plus speed despite bulking up quite a bit since high school. Without impact game power Mitchell is unlikely to be a star, but the offensive improvements he made in college combined with his defensive fit in center give him a good shot to be an everyday center fielder.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#42

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:35 PM Post
Posts: 562
I would have to think he has a legit chance of being our #1 prospect out of the gate. What a steal to get a talent like him at 20!


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#43

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:35 PM Post
Posts: 194
I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#44

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:38 PM Post
Posts: 3064
I like the pick, because he's a sure thing defensively with power potential. Now it's just a question of if he fulfills that promise. Will he hit like George Springer, or Kirk Nieuwenhuis?

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"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#45

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:41 PM Post
Posts: 3064
Soupbone said:
I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.



Don't be, he's was a significantly better hitter as a sophomore than Ray was a a junior. His swing isn't smooth, but he makes contact, which Ray never could.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"88.6% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot" Todd Snider

-Posted by the fan formerly known as X ellence. David Stearns has brought me back..


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#46

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:49 PM Post
Posts: 16380
Soupbone said:
I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.


Well...it isn’t a terrible loose comparison for a somewhat raw college hitter. Good news is we drafted Mitchell #20 instead of #5. It’s not often you can draft a college hitter with as much potential as Mitchell at #20...so it’s pretty cool to get him into the system.

Kind of reminded more of Monte Harrison (though Harrison was a HS guy). Pretty raw, huge power that doesn’t show up in game, and lots of tools.

Sure, maybe high risk, but we are drafting at #20. Dude could totally flop and I’m not going to fault the team for rolling the dice that far into the first round.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#47

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:50 PM Post
Posts: 2248
Not saying this isn't a great pick, because it is, but I wish the Brewers would take more guys with big time power already established, as opposed to power potential.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#48

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:50 PM Post
Posts: 936
Yelich, Hiura, and Mitchell. Our lineup’s gonna be insane in a few years


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#49

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:51 PM Post
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Location: Baltimore, MD
Yount19 said:
So where does he fall in the Brewers top prospects? is he number 1?

Here are his Pipeline Draft Rankings tools compared to the best tools in the Brewers' system prior to tonight (source: https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-2020-t ... pects-list):

HIT
Mitchell: 60 (#1), Top Rated Brewers: 55 (Brice Turang, Hedbert Perez)

POWER
Mitchell: 50, Top Rated Brewers: 55 (Mario Feliciano, Tristen Lutz, Corey Ray, Luis Medina, Thomas Dillard)

RUN
Mitchell: 70 (#1), Top Rated Brewers: 60 (Corey Ray, Brice Turang, Hedbert Perez, Carlos Rodriguez, Eduarqui Fernandez)

ARM
Mitchell: 60, Top Rated Brewer: 70 (Lucas Erceg)

FIELD
Mitchell: 50, Top Rated Brewer: 60 (Carlos Rodriguez)

OVERALL
Mitchell: 55 (#1), Top Rated Brewers: 50 (Brice Turang, Mario Feliciano, Tristen Lutz, Eduardo Garcia, Hedbert Perez)


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#50

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:59 PM Post
Posts: 2659
Location: Madison, WI
I like the pick. Totally predictable that Mitchell was going to be the pick at #20 because he perfectly fits that toolsy outfielder profile. Was he the highest upside bat left on the board? I'd probably say so.

There does seem to be a significant boom-or-bust factor. It's also probably pretty likely that the Brewers plan to make some potentially major adjustments in his swing when reading about the ground ball and high percentage of low angle liners that currently come off his bat. Will be interesting to watch his progress.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#51

Posted: June 10, 2020, 7:59 PM Post
Posts: 194
Will he sign for slot or is he a below slot pick?


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#52

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:00 PM Post
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narwhalattack said:
Yelich, Hiura, and Mitchell. Our lineup’s gonna be insane in a few years

There are obviously no guarantees, but it’s easy to dream on Mitchell’s profile developing into one of the better left-handed leadoff hitters the Brewers have had in awhile.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#53

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:01 PM Post
Posts: 2315
I’ve read reports that his arm may be the biggest cannon of any none pitcher. Seen it anywhere between 60-80 grade. Match that will 70-80 grade speed & elite tracking. Even if his hit tool only lets him hit .240ish he will still be able to deeply impact the game. Not to mention damage he can do when on base. Mitchell is a triple machine. He is a threat go first to third on any hit. Easily go 1st to home in anything towards the gaps. He is just an electric athlete.

Best part is he appears to be very coachable & continues to make adjustments to improve at the plate


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#54

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:02 PM Post
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narwhalattack said:
Yelich, Hiura, and Mitchell. Our lineup’s gonna be insane in a few years


Don’t forget Lutz.

Our OF will be stacked... Yeli, Mitchell, Lutz... Big power in the corners and elite speed in center.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#55

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:02 PM Post
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Soupbone said:
Will he sign for slot or is he a below slot pick?


He was project top 10 talent. Zero chance he signs below 20th slot money. Hopefully he signs at or not too much over.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#56

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:06 PM Post
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The Pirates have had the best draft of any team so far, IMO. SS/2B Nick Gonzales and RHP Carmen Mlodzinski both appear to be special talents.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#57

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:07 PM Post
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Baylor’s Nick Loftin reminds me of Whit Merrifield, and of course he goes to Kansas City.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#58

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:11 PM Post
Posts: 5961
Soupbone said:
I'm afraid he is Corey Ray part 2.


If you read all the reports above it said Mitchell had a 12% k rate. Ray was always somebody who was a higher K rate potential in the 20s that sits in the 30s or higher at times today. So while Ray may have been a projected .245/.315/.490 type Mitchell is going to be more in line at .280/.340/.440 type.

I said in the other draft thread, nothing but good vibes for this draft. My last post mentioned they may get a BPA slide to them who they will offer full slot to, I'd think Mitchell qualifies.

I like it. Crow Armstrong was a player I thought would seem to fit, Mitchell is the higher projected of the two. Armstrong went 19th. Team has a bigger need currently for a position player future hitter after Ray's bust.

You could maybe dream outcomes on him being a Joc Pederson, or a Cody Bellinger depending on how the plus power comments during BP are reflected in games at the ML level. He will steal more bases so maybe you go on a Lorenzo Cain projection line. New Decade, we may have drafted the Franchise's best 1st round pick for this decade!


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#59

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:14 PM Post
Posts: 194
If he stays in CF, and it looks like he will, he won't have to hit for a lot of power to have value. Diabetes is a bad thing, reminded of Dylan Covey.


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Offline  Re: 2020 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5
#60

Posted: June 10, 2020, 8:20 PM Post
Posts: 5387
YoungGeezy1 said:
I’ve read reports that his arm may be the biggest cannon of any none pitcher. Seen it anywhere between 60-80 grade. Match that will 70-80 grade speed & elite tracking. Even if his hit tool only lets him hit .240ish he will still be able to deeply impact the game. Not to mention damage he can do when on base. Mitchell is a triple machine. He is a threat go first to third on any hit. Easily go 1st to home in anything towards the gaps. He is just an electric athlete.

Best part is he appears to be very coachable & continues to make adjustments to improve at the plate


Actually, take that 60ish hit tool, the defense, and speed... I see a Lorenzo Cain/Scott Podsednik type. Gap power, defense, lots of steals...

Don't mess with the swing. Take it, and maybe see what his OBP skills are like. If he draws a ton of walks.. so much the better.


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