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2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)

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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 9:33 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
narwhalattack said:
If I had to go with my gut feeling, I’d say that we’re gonna end up with Cowser


Cowser seems to have very similar body frame, measurables and offensive profile to Garrett Mitchell, albeit with more power. Appears that Mitchell is more of a natural centerfielder, though, while Cowser is decent enough out there, but may not stick long-term. Cowser also apparently has the ability to play 3B, which is interesting.

He really does seem like the type of player the Brewers would draft if given the opportunity. Very athletic dude with an elite bat.


I hadn't heard that about Cowser (potential at 3b). But I like him. Very good hit tool, and a eft handed bat. With Mitchell, Perez, and Gray, would give us some top flight outfielder prospects. Somebody could potentially move to 1b if it helps.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 9:55 AM Post
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Final Baseball America Mock Draft released.

15. Brewers
Matt McLain, UCLA, SS

Notes:

Milwaukee is another team that’s difficult to figure out. Wicks could make sense if he’s on the board, as could Bachman or any of the Frelick/Cowser/McLain trio if they are still available.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 10:26 AM Post
Posts: 933
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
narwhalattack said:
If I had to go with my gut feeling, I’d say that we’re gonna end up with Cowser


Cowser seems to have very similar body frame, measurables and offensive profile to Garrett Mitchell, albeit with more power. Appears that Mitchell is more of a natural centerfielder, though, while Cowser is decent enough out there, but may not stick long-term. Cowser also apparently has the ability to play 3B, which is interesting.

He really does seem like the type of player the Brewers would draft if given the opportunity. Very athletic dude with an elite bat.


If you’re right about Cowser, I wouldn’t mind seeing him take a reverse Braun route. The more talent we accumulate at corner IF, the better.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 10:38 AM Post
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narwhalattack said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
narwhalattack said:
If I had to go with my gut feeling, I’d say that we’re gonna end up with Cowser


Cowser seems to have very similar body frame, measurables and offensive profile to Garrett Mitchell, albeit with more power. Appears that Mitchell is more of a natural centerfielder, though, while Cowser is decent enough out there, but may not stick long-term. Cowser also apparently has the ability to play 3B, which is interesting.

He really does seem like the type of player the Brewers would draft if given the opportunity. Very athletic dude with an elite bat.


If you’re right about Cowser, I wouldn’t mind seeing him take a reverse Braun route. The more talent we accumulate at corner IF, the better.


He played 20 games at 3B in 2019 for Sam Houston State. Doesn't necessarily mean he's got the defensive chops to play there as a pro, but might at least be worth looking into. He probably profiles long-term as a toolsy corner outfielder, though.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 10:46 AM Post
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All I ask is for the Brewers to pick whoever they think has the biggest upside. If that means picking a starting pitcher pick the guy with the upside of a top of the rotation guy and if its a position player pick the player with the biggest potential with the bat. I don't like the rumors of trying to cut an underslot deal with players ranked much lower.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 10:58 AM Post
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brewers888 said:
All I ask is for the Brewers to pick whoever they think has the biggest upside. If that means picking a starting pitcher pick the guy with the upside of a top of the rotation guy and if its a position player pick the player with the biggest potential with the bat. I don't like the rumors of trying to cut an underslot deal with players ranked much lower.


Well. If they have Tyler Black or Connor Norby or Trey Sweeney ranked just as high on their big board as Matt McLain then it makes sense to draft the guy who you like just as much but don't have to pay a lot in order for you to be able to draft a TRULY high upside high schooler in round 4 or 6 or 11 or 12 or whatever who has a high bonus slot number than where we pick him. Thus, that IS actually drafting for upside....

There are hundreds of high schoolers in this draft who have a higher upside than all but a few dozen college players...but they won't necessarily come play for you unless you pay them a bit more. The only way to pay them a bit more might be to do an underslot deal in round 1--PARTICULARLY if you don't feel lie you are missing out on some can't miss type guy. There won't be a can't miss type guy left at 15 with the exception of MAYBE Ty Madden if he falls or your opinion of Hoglund/BednarWicks.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 11:09 AM Post
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brewers888 said:
All I ask is for the Brewers to pick whoever they think has the biggest upside. If that means picking a starting pitcher pick the guy with the upside of a top of the rotation guy and if its a position player pick the player with the biggest potential with the bat. I don't like the rumors of trying to cut an underslot deal with players ranked much lower.

It all depends on situation, though, doesn't it? If the top couple tiers of hitters are gone (No Ford, Cowser, McClain, etc.) and the team has the next tier of players being pretty broad, an underslot deal could yield more collective upside in the draft.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread
Posted: July 11, 2021, 11:09 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Thoughts on Cowser?

If Cowser is available at #15 I think he’d be one of my favorite possibilities for the Brewers. My gut is that he’ll go before the Brewers first selection.

Agreed. If he's available, I think he's the pick.

My #2 is Trey Sweeney. Not the level of competition of others (similar to Cowser though), but love that .522 OBP and 46:24 BB-to-K ratio. 6'4" LHH, will likely slide over to 3B. Then the college arms - Bednar, Wicks, Mikulski, Gavin Williams, Bachman. I could see Hoglund if he's willing to take a well-under-slot deal; if he's willing to take $2.9M (value of #23 pick), that gives the Brewers almost $1M to play with in later draft picks. Mikulski is my sleeper pick here; being 22 and a 4th-year senior he might be able to be had under-slot.

Five drafts since Stearns took the helm, five college players, four position players, three LHH. I don't see them deviating.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread
Posted: July 11, 2021, 11:43 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
Eye Black said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Thoughts on Cowser?

If Cowser is available at #15 I think he’d be one of my favorite possibilities for the Brewers. My gut is that he’ll go before the Brewers first selection.

Five drafts since Stearns took the helm, five college players, four position players, three LHH. I don't see them deviating.


I think there's a couple of reasons. While they covet star talent, Stearns and co seem to view all players as assets. Drafting a college player may get them to AA/AAA a little faster, making them either a phone call away for us or trade bait to improve the big league club.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 12:07 PM Post
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Baseball America reporting they are hearing today that Matt McLain is in play as a possibility to the Red Sox at #4 on an under-slot deal. McLain is who they mocked to the Brewers, so that would certainly change some things with their mock if it comes to fruition.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 12:12 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Baseball America reporting they are hearing today that Matt McLain is in play as a possibility to the Red Sox at #4 on an under-slot deal. McLain is who they mocked to the Brewers, so that would certainly change some things with their mock if it comes to fruition.


Is there any chance whatsoever that Leiter somehow falls down to the Brewers pick due to signability concerns and would they actually pull the trigger. It was presumed that he was headed to Boston but if they cut a deal with McClain he could fall. Then again the Mets would surely pick him and we would almost defintely have no chance but weird things happen.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 12:13 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Baseball America reporting they are hearing today that Matt McLain is in play as a possibility to the Red Sox at #4 on an under-slot deal. McLain is who they mocked to the Brewers, so that would certainly change some things with their mock if it comes to fruition.


Oh man, things potentially really shaking up early in the draft. I wonder what kind of chain reaction will occur from this, and who will fall further than expected as a result. If a Top 10 talent falls to 15, I reckon our FO will be antsy to pounce.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 12:20 PM Post
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brewers888 said:
Eye Black said:
Baseball America reporting they are hearing today that Matt McLain is in play as a possibility to the Red Sox at #4 on an under-slot deal. McLain is who they mocked to the Brewers, so that would certainly change some things with their mock if it comes to fruition.


Is there any chance whatsoever that Leiter somehow falls down to the Brewers pick due to signability concerns and would they actually pull the trigger. It was presumed that he was headed to Boston but if they cut a deal with McClain he could fall. Then again the Mets would surely pick him and we would almost defintely have no chance but weird things happen.

If I’m reading their commentary correctly they seem to think it’s increasing likely Leiter doesn’t make it to the Red Sox pick which is why they think the rumors about McLain going #4 are now swirling.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 12:37 PM Post
Posts: 1855
Eye Black said:
brewers888 said:
Eye Black said:
Baseball America reporting they are hearing today that Matt McLain is in play as a possibility to the Red Sox at #4 on an under-slot deal. McLain is who they mocked to the Brewers, so that would certainly change some things with their mock if it comes to fruition.


Is there any chance whatsoever that Leiter somehow falls down to the Brewers pick due to signability concerns and would they actually pull the trigger. It was presumed that he was headed to Boston but if they cut a deal with McClain he could fall. Then again the Mets would surely pick him and we would almost defintely have no chance but weird things happen.

If I’m reading their commentary correctly they seem to think it’s increasing likely Leiter doesn’t make it to the Red Sox pick which is why they think the rumors about McLain going #4 are now swirling.


Appreciate the updates.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread
Posted: July 11, 2021, 12:43 PM Post
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DHonks said:
I think there's a couple of reasons. While they covet star talent, Stearns and co seem to view all players as assets. Drafting a college player may get them to AA/AAA a little faster, making them either a phone call away for us or trade bait to improve the big league club.

I think it's from an analytical standpoint - college hitters are least likely to flame out at the lower levels of the minors. HS arms/bats are most risky. I also think they lean toward position players because of their pitching lab and the belief that they can develop pitching.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread
Posted: July 11, 2021, 1:11 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
DHonks said:
I think there's a couple of reasons. While they covet star talent, Stearns and co seem to view all players as assets. Drafting a college player may get them to AA/AAA a little faster, making them either a phone call away for us or trade bait to improve the big league club.

I think it's from an analytical standpoint - college hitters are least likely to flame out at the lower levels of the minors. HS arms/bats are most risky. I also think they lean toward position players because of their pitching lab and the belief that they can develop pitching.


We haven't developed any position players yet under Stearns. Hopefully Mitchell pans out but we regularly field an everyday lineup with no players drafted by the Brewers.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread
Posted: July 11, 2021, 1:20 PM Post
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brewers888 said:
LouisEly said:
DHonks said:
I think there's a couple of reasons. While they covet star talent, Stearns and co seem to view all players as assets. Drafting a college player may get them to AA/AAA a little faster, making them either a phone call away for us or trade bait to improve the big league club.

I think it's from an analytical standpoint - college hitters are least likely to flame out at the lower levels of the minors. HS arms/bats are most risky. I also think they lean toward position players because of their pitching lab and the belief that they can develop pitching.


We haven't developed any position players yet under Stearns. Hopefully Mitchell pans out but we regularly field an everyday lineup with no players drafted by the Brewers.


Brewers drafted prospects were directly used to acquire Yelich, Adames and Urias, and indirectly led to the acquisition of Tellez. They have used those guys as currency to acquire long-term pieces. That isn't a bad thing.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread
Posted: July 11, 2021, 1:40 PM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Brewers drafted prospects were directly used to acquire Yelich, Adames and Urias, and indirectly led to the acquisition of Tellez. They have used those guys as currency to acquire long-term pieces. That isn't a bad thing.


Sort of.
Traded for Yelich: Yamamoto, Diaz, Brunson, Harrison (2 drafted, two acquired)
Traded for Adames: Feyereisen, Rasmussen (1 drafted, 1 acquired)
Traded for Urias: Grisham, Davies (1 drafted, 1 acquired)


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 3:43 PM Post
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Baseball America just did a late afternoon update to their mock draft, they now have the Brewers taking Colton Cowser…

15. Brewers
Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State, OF

Notes:
Milwaukee is another team that’s difficult to figure out. Wicks could make sense if he’s on the board, as could Bachman or any of the Frelick/Cowser/McLain trio if they are still available.


They have Leiter going 2nd to the Rangers.


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Offline  Re: 2021 MLB Draft Thread (Pre-Draft Discussion)
Posted: July 11, 2021, 4:12 PM Post
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We haven't developed any position players yet under Stearns. Hopefully Mitchell pans out but we regularly field an everyday lineup with no players drafted by the Brewers.

That's a very strange argument. The first draft since Stearns was hired was 2016, and HS players from that draft are on average 23 years old. Two young catchers, Feliciano and Henry, have played in AAA this year and are well-regarded, particularly Feliciano who is among our top 5 or 10 prospects in most lists. (That's not to mention the fourth rounder Corbin Burnes that year, who in a redraft would easily be a top ten pick.) The early college picks haven't looked great, but in fairness the top of that draft just hasn't panned out, with only 3 of the top ten picks having put up positive bWAR at this point. Oddly enough, Eric Lauer, picked 25th overall, has put up 0.5 which places him 8th in bWAR to date among '16 first rounders. There are even some who have hopes for mid-round college picks Cooper Hummel and Weston Wilson, who are both performing well in AAA.

If it's early for the '16 draft, it's even more so for subsequent drafts. Also, Hiura, warts and all, has played almost 200 major league games. An unbiased analyst would totally count him as a position player drafted and developed by the Stearns regime, even if he's been disappointing. There are position players in the system beyond Mitchell and Turang who will play in the bigs and/or be important parts of trades, and quite a few young guys have taken nice steps the first half of '21, including '17 and '18 picks Joe Gray, Korry Howell, LG Castillo, and JeVon Ward.


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