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2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 7:46 AM Post
Posts: 1275
LouisEly said:
PeaveyFury said:
DHonks said:
Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.


Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

Plus, at 6'9" he probably has long arms and may have a release point closer to the plate than most pitchers (like Peralta) making his pitches seem 2-3mph faster than they clock.


One of the exGM’s on the MLB network mentioned the other day that his front office had studied really tall pitchers and their study showed that really tall pitchers have greater difficulty repeating their delivery. Doesn’t mean it’s always true but an interesting data point.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 8:01 AM Post
Posts: 162
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
LouisEly said:
PeaveyFury said:
DHonks said:

Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

Plus, at 6'9" he probably has long arms and may have a release point closer to the plate than most pitchers (like Peralta) making his pitches seem 2-3mph faster than they clock.


One of the exGM’s on the MLB network mentioned the other day that his front office had studied really tall pitchers and their study showed that really tall pitchers have greater difficulty repeating their delivery. Doesn’t mean it’s always true but an interesting data point.

As a D3 pitching coach with a 6’9 lefty in the bullpen, I can confirm that it’s very hard for them to repeat their mechanics. However, considering Smith’s strike throwing prowess, I’d say he likely is doing a really good job of it. At first look, he doesn’t appear to stride that far out (not surprising at his size), so I’d imagine his extension isn’t anything too crazy. Even with his height. But a good changeup from that type of arm angle is really tough on hitters. If he can fine tune a breaking ball, and maintain the command into pro ball, there could be a really interesting starting pitcher in there.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 8:20 AM Post
Posts: 1399
Todd Johnson said Binelas will be given every chance to play 3B when he's in our system.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 8:38 AM Post
Posts: 1275
As a D3 pitching coach with a 6’9 lefty in the bullpen, I can confirm that it’s very hard for them to repeat their mechanics. However, considering Smith’s strike throwing prowess, I’d say he likely is doing a really good job of it. At first look, he doesn’t appear to stride that far out (not surprising at his size), so I’d imagine his extension isn’t anything too crazy. Even with his height. But a good changeup from that type of arm angle is really tough on hitters. If he can fine tune a breaking ball, and maintain the command into pro ball, there could be a really interesting starting pitcher in there.[/quote]

Great post. Appreciate the insight. I would love to see this guy stay as a starter. If worst case he is a reliever, that is fine. They have value.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 8:58 AM Post
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Reminder that today’s day three (rounds 11-20) draft picks will be discussed in this thread: Link


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:12 AM Post
Posts: 915
BallFour said:
I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.


I'm right with you on this. Really excited that we were able to get Binelas in the 3rd round! I know there are some questions about what position he can play at the pro level, and some concerns about his very slow start this year. But, it appears as if he was coming off of that injury and needed some time to get fully healthy and back to feeling good at the plate again. Looks like he hit over .300 after that first month or so of the season and still hit 19 bombs, playing against some of the best competition in college baseball this year. I know there is some swing/miss in his game, but I'm excited to see if the power potential plays out with him. And, if he does have to move to 1B - I'm not sure if that's the worst thing in the world for us, as we have a glaring organizational hole at that position as well.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:15 AM Post
Posts: 933
madtownhawk said:
BallFour said:
I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.


I'm right with you on this. Really excited that we were able to get Binelas in the 3rd round! I know there are some questions about what position he can play at the pro level, and some concerns about his very slow start this year. But, it appears as if he was coming off of that injury and needed some time to get fully healthy and back to feeling good at the plate again. Looks like he hit over .300 after that first month or so of the season and still hit 19 bombs, playing against some of the best competition in college baseball this year. I know there is some swing/miss in his game, but I'm excited to see if the power potential plays out with him. And, if he does have to move to 1B - I'm not sure if that's the worst thing in the world for us, as we have a glaring organizational hole at that position as well.


Hell, even if he turns out to be a .240 hitter, if he could hit 25+ HRs and can stick at either corner IF positions that would be a HUGE boon for us.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:19 AM Post
Posts: 915
narwhalattack said:
madtownhawk said:
BallFour said:
I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.


I'm right with you on this. Really excited that we were able to get Binelas in the 3rd round! I know there are some questions about what position he can play at the pro level, and some concerns about his very slow start this year. But, it appears as if he was coming off of that injury and needed some time to get fully healthy and back to feeling good at the plate again. Looks like he hit over .300 after that first month or so of the season and still hit 19 bombs, playing against some of the best competition in college baseball this year. I know there is some swing/miss in his game, but I'm excited to see if the power potential plays out with him. And, if he does have to move to 1B - I'm not sure if that's the worst thing in the world for us, as we have a glaring organizational hole at that position as well.


Hell, even if he turns out to be a .240 hitter, if he could hit 25+ HRs and can stick at either corner IF positions that would be a HUGE boon for us.


Exactly! And, wasn't it reported by at least a couple of people that he had one of the more impressive hitting displays at that MLB Draft Combine that they held at some point within the past 2-3 weeks? All of these things really excite me about that pick. Throw in the fact that he is a hometown kid, and I just have a good feeling that he's going to become at worst a real solid player for us in a few years.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:47 AM Post
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Not sure if this is mentioned earlier, but I wonder if the Brewers are focused on guys that can hit the ball to all fields. I don't even know if that's the case with the first two picks but with all the shifting it might be an advantage to have a lot of spray hitters.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 11:39 AM Post
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I am kind of excited about the Smith pick, I think that combo of height and control is so unusual there is more projection there than one might otherwise assume based on past experience.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 2:21 PM Post
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Not important but interesting…. Sam Frelick’s younger Brother was the Northeastern Husky baseball player Dave Portnoy was talking when he first mentioned he/Barstool Sports had sponsored a girl volleyball player from Jacksonville St. & a baseball player from Northeastern. His sister is also on the Duke softball team that just won the ACC. Guess you can say the Frelick’s are a baseball family.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 9:06 AM Post
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Another Brewers related draft recap at FanGraphs today…

The Brewers took a mono-college approach for the second straight year, mixing in two JUCO prospects among four-year guys. It’s possible selecting senior lefty Russell Smith (second round) out of TCU helped facilitate the selection of physical SoCal hitter Roc Riggio (11th) on Day Three. Smith creates really tough angle on his pitches (a Brewer pattern of acquisition), will show you 95, and he executes his changeup with remarkable consistency for a 40-grade athlete. I thought Lousiville 3B/1B Alex Binelas was great value in the third round. He’s reworked his body and added more raw power since his stellar freshman year, but his hit tool regressed. He has a good shot to be a corner platoon bat at least. Duke SS Ethan Murray (fifth) and Minnesota 2B Zack Raabe (eighth) are two well-rounded potential utility types. South Carolina C/DH Wes Clarke (10th) was among the NCAA home run leaders. Fourth round JUCO arm Logan Henderson has a plus changeup, while sixth round JUCO arm Carlos Rodriguez is a plus on-mound athlete with big time arm speed. He’s wild, but has more upside than Henderson.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 9:54 AM Post
Posts: 14
How much are we looking at saving in the Smith pick? He’s got $1.44 million assigned as the pick value, but he’s a senior.

Is there anyone we’d look to for precedence? Is it possible we get ~1 million to play with just with that pick alone?

Combined with 100k here, 100k there with the rest of our top 10, we could get real nuts with those later HS guys.


Last edited by snoogans8056 on July 14, 2021, 10:02 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 9:57 AM Post
Posts: 1275
I have to admit I may have undervalued Smith. What I’m reading about him sounds interesting.

Binelas seems like a risk reward guy. For where we got him, I think we are all very excited. If you look at our pre-draft thread, early on we were wondering if he’d get to 15. I get there are issues that arose but his steep fall feels like an over-correction.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 10:05 AM Post
Posts: 1275
Interesting that we now have two prospects named Carlos Rodriguez. The outfielder has shown a good hit tool after being an international signing and now we drafted a pitcher with the same name.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 10:16 AM Post
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When can we expect some of these guys to sign? In previous, non-Covid years, it seems like some guys would be signed and in the minors for the last two months of the season. With the later draft, can we expect some of these guys to play the last month of the season?


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 10:33 AM Post
Posts: 26
Location: Stevens Point
yfinn6 said:
When can we expect some of these guys to sign? In previous, non-Covid years, it seems like some guys would be signed and in the minors for the last two months of the season. With the later draft, can we expect some of these guys to play the last month of the season?


Well according to this CBS article, the deadline to sign draftees is August 1st. So they potentially could get a month of experience under their belts, I would assume.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-2021-why-most-first-round-picks-will-sign-and-other-signability-questions-answered/


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 1:05 PM Post
Posts: 2291
PeaveyFury said:
DHonks said:
Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.


Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.



I've got to think they drafted him thinking they will add speed to his fastball, so he is sitting 94-95 and can get to 96-97 - while still keeping his control. See this story (probably a video online too).

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/baseball-p ... -increase/

One Apec client, White Sox starter Michael Kopech, has been clocked at 105 mph. "He improved six miles an hour in one offseason," said Apec founder Bobby Stroupe.

"So, he was already throwing mid-to-upper 90s, works out here for an offseason, and is touching 105?" asked Dokoupil.

"Right!"


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 14, 2021, 1:06 PM Post
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Yeah, I saw that piece on CBS as well. Really interesting stuff.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 16, 2021, 10:08 AM Post
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Keith Law with a lukewarm take on the Brewers draft:

The Brewers went for value at pick 15, taking Boston College centerfielder Sal Frelick (1), a high-contact hitter with strength to drive the ball but no real power, hitting just three homers in ACC play this spring. He’s a plus defender in center who has a short left-handed stroke and plus speed, with a good leadoff profile. He may have been a victim of some primacy bias — he came out hot, hitting 3 homers before conference play began, and the possibility that he’d added a grade or more of power changed the industry view of him. When he settled in as a very good player without power, it seemed like a letdown.

Wright State infielder Tyler Black (1A) was, like Frelick, one of the best pure bats in the draft class this year, showing well in non-conference games early this season against strong clubs like Vanderbilt and Alabama, and went 5 for 9 with a homer in the regional against Tennessee and Duke. The first Canadian-born player drafted this year, Black has great plate discipline and scouts love how hard and intelligent his play is. He’s played all over the infield but profiles best at second or possibly third.

TCU lefty Russell Smith (2) is a giant at 6-9, and despite an awkward-looking delivery, he throws a lot of strikes, walking 6 percent of batters this year. He pitches backwards, using his mid-80s changeup and low-80s slider both more than he uses his 91-94 mph fastball, but nothing here is plus. His size gives him natural deception and his command and control help his stuff play up. I don’t think there’s more than a back-end starter here, though.

Alex Binelas (3) came into the year as a possible late first-rounder but got off to a miserable start, and as a bat-first — maybe a bat-only — prospect, it doomed his chances to go that high. He ended up with 19 homers and a .621 slugging percentage, but hit just .256 with 21 walks and 51 punchouts. The power is at least a 70, and while this might be a round high for someone with his profile, lacking any position at the moment, there’s regular upside too.

Right-hander Logan Henderson (4) led JUCO pitchers in strikeouts this year, but he’s under 6′ with a ton of effort in his delivery, including some real head violence at release, a straight reliever look even though he has the three pitches to try to start. Duke shortstop Ethan Murray (5) feels like a player the model liked more than scouts would; he had a solid OBP this year but he has no power, a 45 hit tool at best, and struck out more than he walked.

South Carolina first baseman Wes Clarke (10) has huge power but below-average bat speed and no position. He’s a poor man’s Daniel Vogelbach. The Brewers did take SoCal high school infielder Roc Riggio (11) and could try to sign him with money left over from their bonus pool, since they didn’t take anyone who seems like he’ll require over slot before that. Riggio’s a bat-first high school position player, the kind of kid who often benefits from college because teams can better track and measure his performance while seeing how it holds up against better competition. He might end up in left field, lacking the speed for the middle, and it’ll remain to be seen if he can continue to show power as a 5-9 hitter when using the wood bat. He’d be a nice bow on the draft for Milwaukee.


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