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2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10

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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 4:59 PM Post
Posts: 217
Also, Warren is a 22 year old rookie in regular A ball. Wouldn't put too much stock in the numbers.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:18 PM Post
Posts: 2315
umphrey said:
madtownhawk said:
umphrey said:
I guess I like this draft?

Pick #1: Mild disappointment
Picks 2-4: Great
Picks 5-11: Nothing to see here

Usually there is 1-2 guys in rounds 4-10 worth paying attention to but not so much this year. I think Fangraphs will rank Frelick as our #3 prospect, though I would probably put him in the 6-10 range at best. Black and Binelas can probably be in the 15-20 range, Russell Smith just outside top 20 and the rest definitely outside the top 30.


Personally, I think you are undervaluing Frelick a bit - as I would clearly put him somewhere in our top 3 prospects. I'm guessing Black will slot somewhere in the 4-8 range on our list, and then I'd probably put Binelas somewhere in the 8-12 range in our system. No way, I'm ranking Binelas any lower than Lutz right now.


I think he's really similar to David Hamilton and Hamilton is outside our top 10


Well to be fair, a big reason Hamilton is outside of 10 is because he was drafted with an injury & couldn’t play after being drafted. Then no baseball last year. How can you put a bone top pick or bonus baby in top 10 when they had never touched field. Think he will be much higher soon.

Also Hamilton was known as a solid bat but elite speed & defender. Frelick has the elite speed & defense but also a much high end bat. Hamilton before injury wasn’t in nearly every analysts top 10-15. Frelick was for a reason. Sole reason people are down on Sal is he is 5’9 & act like he has little pop in his bat. If he was even 6’0… people would be drooling over pick. The bat is going to be much better with more pop than given credit to right now.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:26 PM Post
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Yeah MLB Pipeline has Frelick at 60 Hit/45 Power vs 45 Hit/35 Power for Hamilton, so it would appear Sal has much higher offensive upside to go along with a plus speed & defense profile, which is why he was pretty much a consensus Top 10 prospect across multiple sources.

College stats back it up too with Sal at 345/435/521 for his career vs a career 256/358/372 line for Hamilton in college.

Two completely different hitters.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:36 PM Post
Posts: 2315
beekay414 said:
Also, Warren is a 22 year old rookie in regular A ball. Wouldn't put too much stock in the numbers.


He is also in Carolina League though which had been notoriously hard for hitters. If this was old minors he would have been a 21 year old rookie in Helena & 22 year old in Wisconsin. That is pretty typical pace to start after being drafted. He is only slightly above league average for age. With hitters with 150 PA he is 3rd in ops… well second now Gray Jr moved up. To knock a guy for being just above or at league average for age is questionable. If he was 23 or 24 I’d get it. Over half of the top 30 hitters (16) in the league are 22 or older. That takes you all the way down to about .768 OPS. He has been terrific since slow banged up start.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:44 PM Post
Posts: 1580
Location: Ohio
Just something to make people take a moment:

In the Brewers top 11 picks, 4 were pitchers (3 RH, 1 LH; all 4 are college/ JUCO arms)

In the LA Angels top 10 picks, all 10 were pitchers (8 RH, 2 LH; all 10 are college arms)

In the Indians top 11 picks, 10 were pitchers (6 RH, 4 LH; all are college arms)


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:44 PM Post
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umphrey said:
Zavier Warren is a good example of why I only have 1 of these guys sniffing the top 10. He was our 3rd round pick last year and hitting .266/.405/.578 so how do you put someone like Binelas ahead of him?

Recency bias. It's rampant in every post-draft poll. Their 2nd round pick from last year is in the top-10 but the 2nd round picks from 3-4 years ago are nowhere to be found. Same with their 5th round picks.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:46 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
DHonks said:
Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.


Yep- as weird as it sounds, with the lab stuff now, velocity IS teachable. It's the exact opposite of 10 years ago, when you drafted hard throwers and prayed that you could teach them control. In this case, I assume his control rating was highly desired by the team and there's an assumption that they may be able to add a few MPH, which seems a reasonable developmental plan.

Plus, at 6'9" he probably has long arms and may have a release point closer to the plate than most pitchers (like Peralta) making his pitches seem 2-3mph faster than they clock.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 5:56 PM Post
Posts: 5916
MadThinker88 said:
Just something to make people take a moment:

In the Brewers top 11 picks, 4 were pitchers (3 RH, 1 LH; all 4 are college/ JUCO arms)

In the LA Angels top 10 picks, all 10 were pitchers (8 RH, 2 LH; all 10 are college arms)

In the Indians top 11 picks, 10 were pitchers (6 RH, 4 LH; all are college arms)



I'll assume having a 5round draft in 2020 plus not scouting HS juniors in 2020 that were only capable to scout them as seniors for the games leading up to the draft this year. Isn't it a larger college filled draft class due to the 5rd draft.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 6:02 PM Post
Posts: 2315
I was going to mention the long arms as well. Brewers love deception. With those long arms & size, you can create pretty good deception & make it seem like ball is on hitter way faster than the velocity.

Brewers are very high on their pitching lab & have seen some really good results. He has really good foundation with size, being lefty, command, and a plus off speed pitch. They have to believe they can maximize his stuff more.

Someone mentioned Jimmy Nelson earlier & think that was pretty great. We all kind of over looked Jimmy & weren’t high on the pick. He started off slower in minors but worked out really well for us. Hope this pick turns out in similar fashion. Never know, it’s a crapshoot. He could turn out to be like Lemon pick so far.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 6:49 PM Post
Posts: 10285
All 11 of the Brewers' picks over the first two days were college players, including outfielder Sal Frelick of Boston College and second baseman Tyler Black of Wright State in the first and second rounds, respectively, on Sunday.

"A lot of it was the board," Johnson said. "It's not a strategic choice to take a lot of college guys; it's just the way that it fell this year. Then, budget and managing that becomes a piece of that as well."


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 6:56 PM Post
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In the FanGraphs day one recap they had Sal as a 45+ FV, which probably slots him in at #3 behind Ashby (50 FV) & Mitchell (45+ FV) & ahead of the 45 FV guys (Quero, Small, Turang, Olson, Chourio, Feliciano, Uribe & Howell) in the 4-11 spots.

They had Black as a 40+ FV, which would put him somewhere in a group of ten guys (Warren, Gray, Hedbert, Hamilton, Zamora, Kelly, Lutz, Lazar & Garcia) between 12-21.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 7:07 PM Post
Posts: 188
DHonks said:
Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.


Frederickson was 8 years before Stearns and pitching labs and the like. This new regime deserves the benefit of the doubt with waivers, drafting, developing, and tall lefties.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 7:42 PM Post
Posts: 1276
This draft seems like a mixed bag. Frelick seems like a good value pick. We will see on Black. After that, maybe we get a bullpen arm? No one really jumps out in terms of upside.

I am sure if you look at the draft where we took Burnes, there were alot of posters touting that pick in the aftermath of that draft.

At least we stopped wasting time on the Caden Lemons, Nash Walters profile type guys.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 7:47 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
I wonder if peak Adam Eaton isn’t a terrible comp for what you hope Sal Frelick becomes?


Eaton would be a great outcome. Another guy that despite below average power (82 ISO+), still managed an above average batting line (116 wRC+) on the strength of a great approach (110 BB%+ vs 84 K%+) and propensity for getting hits (112 AVG+). Throw in plus baserunning / fielding & Eaton tallied 18 WAR during his team control seasons.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 8:32 PM Post

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Caden Lemons…why….


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Online  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 8:41 PM Post
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Austin Tatious said:
I am sure if you look at the draft where we took Burnes, there were alot of posters touting that pick in the aftermath of that draft.


But this draft is still in progress.... we haven't even made it to the aftermath yet to know who will be touting what.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 8:58 PM Post
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JackNicholson1974 said:
Caden Lemons…why….

I'm still wondering about that pick as well.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 9:07 PM Post
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I am sure it has been brought up but have to think the hamate bone injury to Binelas had to somewhat contribute to his struggles to start the year. Feel like he could be a steal when we look back in a couple years.


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Online  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 12, 2021, 9:53 PM Post
Posts: 8652
ebmackenzie said:
DHonks said:
Throwing 93 mph isn’t all that slow for a lefty. Plus maybe they hope they’re in the pitching lab they can on earth more velocity and tighten up that slider. Then again we haven’t had success with tall high picks like Thomas and Fredrickson.


Frederickson was 8 years before Stearns and pitching labs and the like. This new regime deserves the benefit of the doubt with waivers, drafting, developing, and tall lefties.


Yes very true…but just saying our history wi5 tall picks has me a little anxious. The last successful tall pitcher was probably D’Amico, but that’s also because we haven’t drafted all that many


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Offline  Re: 2021 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-10
Posted: July 13, 2021, 6:55 AM Post
Posts: 1399
LouisEly said:
umphrey said:
Zavier Warren is a good example of why I only have 1 of these guys sniffing the top 10. He was our 3rd round pick last year and hitting .266/.405/.578 so how do you put someone like Binelas ahead of him?

Recency bias. It's rampant in every post-draft poll. Their 2nd round pick from last year is in the top-10 but the 2nd round picks from 3-4 years ago are nowhere to be found. Same with their 5th round picks.

I really like what the Indians did with their first 3 picks, Gavin Williams, Doug Nikhazy and Tommy Mace... 3 dudes that know how to pitch.


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