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2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission

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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#1

Posted: January 18, 2008, 9:58 AM Post
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Posts: 520

So here's the deal: we make projections on how we feel our Brewers players will do in the 08 season. When all projections are in, I'll average them and that average will be the official bf.net projection. At the end of the season (yes I know, a looong way away) I'll run a correlation study between our projections, official projections (Pecota, Zips, etc) and the actual regular season stats to see which system performed best.

These are the guidelines:

To make the predictions you can use any information you want - any stats, other projection systems, and most importantly, your own subjective and unique opinions on how you think players will perform.

The players that should be predicted: (the starters/important bullpen/ position players)
Fielder
Weeks
Hardy
Hall
Braun
Cameron
Hart
Kendall

Sheets
Gallardo
Villanueva
Suppan
Bush
Capuano
Gagne
Riske
Turnbow

For sake of simplicity I narrowed the stats down, which will hopefully be more inviting
Hitting - AVG/OBP/SLG

Pitching - WHIP, ERA


Hopefully there's a good response, as 10 predictions won't really say much, but 50+ will show a truer (is that a word?) average of bf.net and actually mean something.



Added false promise for persuasion purposes - b19


Last edited by 1992casey on March 24, 2009, 7:53 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#2

Posted: January 18, 2008, 10:57 AM Post
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Fielder - .290/.420/.610
Weeks - .260/.380/.510
Hardy -.265/.320/.440
Hall -.275/.335/.475
Braun - .300/.340/.570
Cameron -.265/.330/.450
Hart -.300/.360/.550
Kendall - .260/.325/.350

Sheets -1.10, 3.50
Gallardo - 1.25, 3.65
Villanueva - 1.35, 3.90
Suppan - 1.55, 4.80
Bush -1.30, 4.25
Capuano -1.35, 3.95
Gagne - 1.40, 4.50
Riske - 1.30, 4.10
Turnbow - 1.60, 5.20


Last edited by SheetsCyYoung04 on January 18, 2008, 11:00 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#3

Posted: January 18, 2008, 10:59 AM Post
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Posts: 3590
I'm wondering if we'll end up needed a "homer factor" to scale down projections in the end. Let's hope we are informed fans...

 AVG OBP SLG
Fielder .289 / .406 / .574
Weeks .262 / .371 / .453
Hardy .269 / .329 / .446
Hall .261 / .344 / .500
Braun .290 / .347 / .523
Cameron .271 / .330 / .449
Hart .271 / .355 / .524
Kendall .269 / .369 / .335

 ERA WHIP
Sheets 3.88 / 1.09
Gallardo 3.56 / 1.10
Villanueva 4.22 / 1.37
Suppan 4.68 / 1.49
Bush 3.98 / 1.21
Capuano 4.25 / 1.39
Gagne 3.10 / 1.07
Riske 3.90 / 1.45
Turnbow 4.90 / 1.55


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#4

Posted: January 18, 2008, 11:01 AM Post
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Brewerfan Jedi
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Posts: 20430

Fielder - .300/.415/.610/1.025


Weeks - .265/.415/.525/.940

Hardy - .285/.345/.455/.800

Hall - .275/.345/.500/.845

Braun - .290/.355/.580/.935

Cameron - . 260/.345/.460/.805

Hart - .310/.365/.560/.925

Kendall - .270/.345/.335/.680

____________________________

Sheets - 1.30 WHIP / 3.50 ERA

Gallardo - 1.25/ 3.35

Villanueva (as SP) - 1.40 / 3.80

Suppan - 1.38 / 4.65

Bush - 1.30 / 4.50

Capuano - 1.35 / 4.40

Gagne - 1.30 / 3.50

Riske - 1.25 / 3.10

Turnbow - 1.48 / 4.50


Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#5

Posted: January 18, 2008, 11:08 AM Post
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Player AVG/OBP/SLG
Fielder - .295/.410/.605
Braun - .290/.350/.600
Hart - .297/.360/.538
Hardy - .270/.320/.440
Weeks - .280/.420/.530
Hall - .272/.336/.494
Kendall - .274/.359/.340
Cameron - .253/.351/.446

WHIP ERA
Suppan - 1.40 4.35
Sheets - 1.05 3.12
Cappy - 1.32 4.24
Gallardo - 1.19 3.15
Bush - 1.25 4.20
Villanueva - 1.29 4.45
Gagne - 1.23 3.44
Turnbow - 1.42 3.93
Riske - 1.29 3.56



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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#6

Posted: January 18, 2008, 11:11 AM Post
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Posts: 520
sbrylski06 said:
I'm wondering if we'll end up needed a "homer factor" to scale down projections in the end. Let's hope we are informed fans...

I'm hoping there will be a numebr pessimistic projections to offset some of the homerism. But I think it's inevitable there will be some level of homerism in the results.



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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#7

Posted: January 18, 2008, 11:18 AM Post
Posts: 163

HITTERS

Fielder .292 / .400 / .585

Weeks .275 / .395 / .465

Hardy .268 / .330 / .442

Hall .258 / .320 / .468

Braun .285 / .341 / .550

Cameron .255 / .345 / .458

Hart .290 / .350 / .505

Kendall .262 / .345 / .365

PITCHERS

Sheets 3.95 / 1.15

Gallardo 3.68 / 1.21

Villanueva 4.05 / 1.35

Suppan 4.85 / 1.48

Bush 4.49 / 1.27

Capuano 4.45 / 1.35

Gagne 3.25 / 1.12

Riske 3.92 / 1.29

Turnbow 4.45 / 1.38


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#8

Posted: January 18, 2008, 11:26 AM Post
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HITTERS:

Fielder .287/.408/.586

Weeks .263/.387/.485

Hardy .269/.325/.438

Hall .263/.334/.489

Braun .304/.363/.549

Cameron .264/.339/.447

Hart .296/.354/.528

Kendall .264/.341/.338

PITCHERS:

Sheets 3.38/1.13

Gallardo 3.64/1.24

Villanueva 3.96/1.34

Suppan 4.49/1.42

Capuano 4.32/1.31

Bush 4.29/1.22

Gagne 3.52/1.16

Riske 3.37/1.28

Turnbow 4.46/1.39

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#9

Posted: January 18, 2008, 11:52 AM Post
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TR - are you planning on actually calculating the average ratings/projections for each of these guys once you hit that 50-ish reply mark? I know you mentioned comparing with the actual end-of-the-year numbers, but I'm not sure exactly what you meant.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#10

Posted: January 18, 2008, 12:20 PM Post
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Weeks .277 / .381 / .485 / .866
Hardy .261 / .325 / .460 / .785
Fielder .298 / .410 / .614 / 1.024
Braun .305 / .374 / .593 / .967
Hart .310 / .370 / .520 / .910
Cameron .271 / .348 / .480 / .828
Hall .264 / .326 / .490 / .816
Kendall .253 / .331 / .309 / .640


Sheets 1.15 3.71
Gallardo 1.19 3.90
Villanueva 1.34 4.37
Suppan 1.48 4.70
Capuano 1.28 4.48

Bush 1.20 4.10
Torres 1.41 4.35
Riske 1.18 3.23
Turnbow 1.29 3.09
Gagne 1.25 2.85


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#11

Posted: January 18, 2008, 1:04 PM Post
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i'm noticing a trend...
No one is projecting that our line-up is going to produce over two .300 AVG. Hmmmm... We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender. I can see Braun w/a .318 AVG, Hart w/a .300 AVG, and Fielder w/a .310 AVG. If we can get Weeks to slide in there as well....watch out boys and girls. This could be a fun summer.


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#12

Posted: January 18, 2008, 1:17 PM Post
Posts: 9297
We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender.

So, if a guy hits .275/.350/.500, he's probably not going to help a team get to the big game? Don't fall into the BA trap!


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#13

Posted: January 18, 2008, 1:18 PM Post
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brewtank34 said:
No one is projecting that our line-up is going to produce over two .300 AVG. Hmmmm... We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender.

Number of starters hitting .300 :

2007 Red Sox: 3
2006 Cardinals: 1
2005 White Sox: 0
2004 Red Sox: 3
2003 Marlins: 2
2002 Angels: 2
2001 D-backs: 1

I didn't go back any further, but I think it is pretty clear at even a prima facie level that there is no magic number of .300 hitters a team needs to win a World Series. There are many other stats that are far more correlated with runs scored than batting average.


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#14

Posted: January 18, 2008, 2:50 PM Post
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This thread should be sticky-icky-icky-ized.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#15

Posted: January 18, 2008, 4:38 PM Post
Posts: 9297
This thread should be sticky-icky-icky-ized.

Not only that, I think someone should write a one paragraph article that links to this thread.


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#16

Posted: January 18, 2008, 5:34 PM Post
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Posts: 520
TooLiveBrew said:
TR - are you planning on actually calculating the average ratings/projections for each of these guys once you hit that 50-ish reply mark? I know you mentioned comparing with the actual end-of-the-year numbers, but I'm not sure exactly what you meant.

Yes, once the replies stop coming in, I'll average the stats for every player, which will be the official brewerfan.net projection. At the end of the season, I'll so how well our predictions correlated with the actual stats of players, along with Zips, Pecota, marcels etc. Maybe we'll actually see a strong correlation right with the actual projection systems, maybe not.


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#17

Posted: January 18, 2008, 6:25 PM Post
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HITTERS:

Fielder .288/..392/.592

Weeks .273/.380/.475

Hardy .262/.335/.442

Hall .265/.338/.510

Braun .287/.348/.585

Cameron .242/.339/.439

Hart .285/.363/.497

Kendall .244/.338/.335

PITCHERS:

Sheets 3.30/1.08

Gallardo 3.85/1.34

Villanueva 4.10/1.41

Suppan 4.85/1.42

Capuano 4.28/1.52

Bush 4.31/1.32

Gagne 4.10/1.38

Riske 3.37/1.28

Turnbow 3.91/1.25


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#18

Posted: January 18, 2008, 6:51 PM Post
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Posts: 992
Very nice Billy Jo... I will now eat my crow

Image


I'll admit that I do get caught up in the BA stat. But it's still a good one to rely on. Having a good BA is the "Gateway Drug" of having other reliably good stats. I'm sticking with my request of having three Brewers w/above or equal BA's to .300
I think that'll be a good start.


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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#19

Posted: January 18, 2008, 8:02 PM Post
Posts: 1011
brewtank34 said:
i'm noticing a trend...
No one is projecting that our line-up is going to produce over two .300 AVG. Hmmmm... We need at least three if we want to be a World Series contender. I can see Braun w/a .318 AVG, Hart w/a .300 AVG, and Fielder w/a .310 AVG. If we can get Weeks to slide in there as well....watch out boys and girls. This could be a fun summer.

I don't think that's true at all. I don't think you "need'' any set amount of players hitting .300 to win a WS. I think you need players getting on base, and driving people in. I think we could win without a single player hitting .300 so long as Prince is a .290/.400/1.025, Braun's a .285/.350/.925 and Weeks is a .295/.425/1.000 player. Batting Averages doesn't mean an awful lot if you can compensate with a good OBP and SLG pct.



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Offline  2008 Brewerfan Projections: Voucher For One Free Beer With Every Submission
#20

Posted: January 18, 2008, 8:17 PM Post
Posts: 1011
Rickie Weeks-.295/.420/.580
Mike Cameron-.265/.348/.440
Ryan Braun-.285/.345/.515
Prince Fielder-.312/.410/.610
Corey Hart-.300/.390/.515
Bill Hall-.270/.342/.475
JJ Hardy-.272/.321/.429
Jason Kendall-.239/.341/.399
---------------------------
Bench
Gabe Gross-.282/.365/.449
Craig Counsell-.239/.333/.368
Joe Dillon-.312/.375/.435
Mike Rivera-.209/.285/.355
Tony Gwynn Jr-.253/.300/.345
Vinny Rottino-.275/.345/.418
--------------------------------
Rotation
1-Ben Sheets-2.89 .95
2-Yovani Gallardo-3.18 1.17
3-Jeff Suppan-4.67 1.43
4-Carlos Villanueva-3.95 1.32
5-Chris Capuano-4.45 1.39
-------------------
Manny Parra-3.24 1.29
Dave Bush-4.53 1.15
Claudio Vargas-5.06 1.54
----------------------
Bullpen
CL-Eric Gange-2.88 1.01
SU-David Riske-2.78 1.30
7th-Derrick Turnbow-3.78 1.16
MR-Salomon Torres-2.59 1.19
MR-Guillermo Mota-4.98 1.52
Loogy-Brian Shouse-4.56 1.48
--------------------------------
Luis Pena-3.89 1.28
Mich Stetter-2.02 1.09
Steve Bray-6.15 1.89

96-66 1st Place In NLC
3-1 over the LAD in the Wild Card round.
4-2 Win over the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS.
4-3 win over the LAA in the World series


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