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Pitching Wins

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Offline  Pitching Wins
#1

Posted: January 19, 2008, 7:00 PM Post
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Posts: 68
I suddenly find myself excited by you stat guys. You can answer questions I formulate but don't have the patience to research.

I read this in 'Major Leagues': W's are about the 10th most important stat you would want to look at when judging a pitcher

OK, no argument. But is it true? The last thread I started, "OBP", was eventually explained by a huge graph, provided by sbrylski06. Is there a similar graph of pitching stats, where I could see how W's ranked against pitching numbers?


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Offline  Pitching Wins
#2

Posted: January 20, 2008, 2:49 AM Post
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I don't know of any graph similar to the one sbrylski showed, but it's true that wins are waaay down there in judging a pitcher. I don't know who posted this or what 9 metrics he preferred over wins, but FIP, xFIP, VORP, Support Nuetral Win Loss Record, and the numerous periphial stats (K/9, BB/9 etc) should all come first over ERA and wins. Both are team stats, as ERA is affected by luck and defense, and wins are affected by those two factors plus your run support.


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Offline  Pitching Wins
#3

Posted: January 20, 2008, 5:39 AM Post
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No graph is really necessary. If we want to judge individual performance, we want to use stats that are controlled as much by the player in question as possible. When it comes to a pitcher's win-loss record, he typically only pitches for 2/3rds of the game, has little control over the defense behind him and the offensive trying to score runs. Sure, a pitcher's win/loss record tells you a lot about the quality of the pitcher, but it also tells you about the quality of the defense and the most about the quality of the offense.

Compare that to something like strike out or walk rate, were it's almost all the pitcher who's controlling the stat. A pitcher can change teams and will generally still hold a consistent K and walk rate. The same isn't true about win/loss record.


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Offline  Pitching Wins
#4

Posted: January 20, 2008, 8:35 AM Post
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Like Russ said, "Wins" are not really even a pitching stat. More like 25% starting pitching, 15% defense, 10% bullpen, 50% offense. (Those numbers are guesstimates.) I mean, its obviously going to correlate 100% to wins (if you were to put it in a graph like those offensive stats) - but that's not the issue. There is so much outside influence in just ERA, which is just part of "wins".


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