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Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events

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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#1

Posted: January 13, 2008, 5:54 PM Post
Posts: 9297
I have a theory that fans have a tendency to value offensive events closer to their relative entertainment value, rather than their actual run value. Its certainly not unreasonable to want batters to do the things that are more fun to watch, so I don't blame any fan for doing it. I thought it would be interesting to test that theory and see how people would weight steals, walks, singles, doubles, triples and HRs, relative to each other in two ways:

* Entertainment
* What they think their relative run value actually is

Keep in mind, we are talking about the average, relative run value. If a batter always came up to bat with no one on, a walk and single would be worth exactly the same. Common sense tells us that a single is worth more, however, since their will often be base runners on that will be advanced more efficiently with a single than with a walk. So, try to think of the average situation and how the various events would effect how many runs a team will score and how fun it would be to see the batter performance the event.

Now, anyone who wants to cheat and find their relative run values could simply google it (it's pretty straight forward to calculate) to find the answer but I ask to resist the urge. And for anyone who already knows, just post your excitement weights if you'd like.

Finally, If I didn't already know the answer , I don't think my guess would be anywhere close to right, so I don't think the correct answers are easy to estimate. Perhaps the average guess might do a pretty good job, though and my theory will be proven wrong. It will be interesting to see.

Here's my entertainment estimate, to illustrate what I'm looking for. I'll use a 1 through 10 scale, using whole numbers:

10 home run
8 triple
5 double
3 single
2 steal
1 walk


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#2

Posted: January 13, 2008, 6:07 PM Post
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For entertainment value only.

Inside the park HR = 10
Triple - 8
Home Run -7
Double - 5
Steal - 3
Single - 2
Walk - 2

The Walk number might be weird but I love watching a hitter work the count.


Last edited by Ennder on January 14, 2008, 2:07 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#3

Posted: January 13, 2008, 6:35 PM Post
Posts: 12323
Entertainment

10 - triple

8 - home run

5 - double

3 - single

2 - walk

2 - steal

I think a triple is more exciting because there is a buildup as the runner gets to second. Steals don't get me to excited unless they happen in a big spot in a game.

Fan is short for fanatic.
I blame Wang.


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#4

Posted: January 13, 2008, 6:41 PM Post
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Posts: 3590
I'm guessing you got the inspiration for this from the same article I read the other day. In fact, I had to go find a proverb and change my sig, because I put the rounded relative weights down there. Luckily, I haven't posted on BF.net in two days...



In terms of just excitement, for me I'd say:



Walk - 1

Single - 3

Steal - 4

Double - 5

Home Run - 8

Triple - 10


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#5

Posted: January 13, 2008, 6:41 PM Post
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10 Triple

9 Homer

6 Double

4 Single

3 Steal

1 Walk



Knowing the numerical values of each doesn't really affect being able to weigh the "excitement" factor involved in each type of event. And of course, the excitement of any event can change, contextually speaking. A steal in the 9th when you're down a run is far more exciting than a steal in the 4th of a game you're up 3 runs. Mathematically speaking of course, they mean the same, but the context is important when considering the "human" factor.


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#6

Posted: January 13, 2008, 6:51 PM Post
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Posts: 1154
Home Run 10

Triple 9

Double 7

Single 4

Walk 2

Steal 2


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#7

Posted: January 13, 2008, 6:55 PM Post
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Posts: 248
Relative run value:

HR:10

Triple: 8

double:6

single:4

walk: 3

steal: 1



By the way: can you really do a relative offensive value for a successful stolen base without somehow taking into account the risk of getting caught stealing?



Entertainment:

Inside the park home run: 10

home run: 9

triple: 8

double: 6

steal: 4

single: 3

walk: 2


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#8

Posted: January 13, 2008, 7:02 PM Post
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Without ranking them all, I will just say my favorite/most exciting event in baseball is a 3 run bases loaded double with a throw to the plate.


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#9

Posted: January 13, 2008, 8:02 PM Post
Posts: 1860
my personal entertainment value:



Triple 10

Home run 7

double 5

walk 3

HBP 2

steal 2

single1



inside the park homer 8

stealing home 9


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#10

Posted: January 14, 2008, 3:34 AM Post
Posts: 9297
By the way: can you really do a relative offensive value for a successful stolen base without somehow taking into account the risk of getting caught stealing?



I just wanted the value of a successful steal. You are correct that what's generally of more importance is the value of a stolen base attempt, which has to factor in CS.



Come on people, I need more guesses on actual relative run values.


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#11

Posted: January 14, 2008, 4:44 AM Post
Posts: 1071
This is a complete guess on relative values, and I haven't put much thought into it either--just off the top of my head. I'll use 10=HR



HR=10.

3b=7.0

2b=4.5

1b=2.0

BB=1.5

Steal=1.0


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#12

Posted: January 14, 2008, 5:04 AM Post
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Posts: 5472
Here are my values as a fan.



Triple -- 10

Double -- 7

Home Run -- 6

Steal -- 5

Single -- 4

Walk -- 3



I think a Single/Walk + Steal >Double -- again as what I would rather watch.


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#13

Posted: January 14, 2008, 6:18 AM Post
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rluzinski said:
Come on people, I need more guesses on actual relative run values.

I know this one (I have 2 hardcover copies of Total Baseball), but I won't spoil your fun!

There's a lot of great stuff in that book, if you're into real dry, fact based stuff. I have the 2001 and 2004 copies, and there's a pretty extensive section on this stuff you're talking about right here.



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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#14

Posted: January 14, 2008, 7:14 AM Post
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Posts: 147
Entertainment

Triple - 10

Double -8

HR - 7

Steal - 6

Single - 5

Walk - 3



A lot of home runs are actually boring, IMHO.



Run value

Home Run - 10

Triple - 9

Double - 7

Single - 4

Walk - 3

Steal - 2


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#15

Posted: January 14, 2008, 7:35 AM Post
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Here's my guess at run value, off the top of my head:

HR- 10
Triple- 7
Double- 6
Single-4
Walk- 3
Steal- 1


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#16

Posted: January 14, 2008, 7:10 PM Post
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Relative run value (a guess):
multiply by 5 to get 10-pt scale
HR: 2
3B: 1.8
2B: 1.5
1B: 0.8
BB: 0.5
Steal: 0.1

Entertain me!:
3B: 10
2B: 8
HR: 8
Steal: 5
1B: 2
BB: 1


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#17

Posted: January 14, 2008, 8:04 PM Post
Posts: 12323
Relative value
HR - 10
3B - 9
2B - 7
single - 4
walk - 3
steal - 1

Fan is short for fanatic.
I blame Wang.


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#18

Posted: January 15, 2008, 3:12 AM Post
Posts: 6
Relative Value

HR-10

3B-7

2B-5

single-3

walk-2

steal-1



Entertainment

HR-10

3B-10

2B-8

single-5

walk-3

steal-3


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#19

Posted: January 15, 2008, 3:35 AM Post
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Posts: 1066
Location: Waukesha, WI
Relative value:
HR = 10
3B = 7
2B = 5.5
1B = 3
BB = 2
SB = 2


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Offline  Average Relative Run Value of Offensive Events
#20

Posted: January 15, 2008, 4:41 AM Post
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Brewerfan Jedi
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Posts: 20430
Entertainment value

BB - 3
SB - 5
1B - 4
2B - 6
3B - 9
HR - 10

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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