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Brewer PECOTA stats

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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#1

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:14 AM Post
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Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP
Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP
Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP
JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP
Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP
Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP
Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP
Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP

Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP
Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP
Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP
Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP
Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP
Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP
David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP
Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP
Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP
Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP
Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP

I'll take those hitting numbers, the pitching looks pretty ugly so I'm hoping it is assuming last years defense and not this years.


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#2

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:25 AM Post
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And now for the Cubs.

Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP
Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP
Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP
Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP
Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP
Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP
Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP
Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP

Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP
Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP
Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP
Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP
Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP
Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP
Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP
Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP
Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP
Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP
Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP

The Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9.

So basically PECOTA thinks the teams are even, heh.



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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#3

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:27 AM Post
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actually, I thought the hitting numbers were a little low for most players, and the pitching more on target, with a few exceptions.
I'll take those numbers for Cameron, though.


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#4

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:29 AM Post
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Just looking at the OPS projections makes me want to drool (aside from Kendall). Imagine this lineup:

Weeks - .822
Cameron - .849
Fielder - .944
Braun - .942
Hart - .886
Hall - .817
Hardy - .770
Kendall - .645 (blah)

Try pitching to that!


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#5

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:30 AM Post
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I sure hope that Fukudome projection isn't accurate, it didn't project him for full time play because of his injury history or he'd be up at Braun levels of value.


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#6

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:31 AM Post
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Are these 2008 projected PECOTA numbers? I still don't see updated PECOTA cards at BP.com. Are they all in one place until they update each player's individual card?


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#7

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:37 AM Post
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These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#8

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:38 AM Post
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KegStand81 said:
Just looking at the OPS projections makes me want to drool (aside from Kendall). Imagine this lineup:

Weeks - .822
Cameron - .849
Fielder - .944
Braun - .942
Hart - .886
Hall - .817
Hardy - .770
Kendall - .645 (blah)

Try pitching to that!

considering the projections either represent a drop-off from last season, or a minor improvement, even for very young players, it is pretty pessimistic except for Cameron (which must be due to change in ballparks) and Hall (they are expecting a fair bounce-back). Last year: Weeks, .807; Cameron, .759, Braun, 1.004; Fielder 1.013; Hart, .892; Hall, .740; Hardy .786; Kendall .610.


Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.


Last edited by Anonymous on February 01, 2008, 8:40 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#9

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:41 AM Post
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I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575 (.324/.370/.634 last year)
Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528 (.295/.353/.539)
Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560 (.288/.395/.618)
JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441 (.277/.323/.463)
Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493 (.261/.318/.453, LF last year)
Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454 (.235/.374/.433)
Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482 (.254/.315/.425)
Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321 (.278/.296/.403 Estrada last year)

I guess looking at the stats the big upgrade is just Cameron over the crap we got out of left field last year and Hall improving on last years numbers. The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.


Last edited by Ennder on February 01, 2008, 8:49 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#10

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:48 AM Post
Posts: 1071
Ennder said:
I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.



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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#11

Posted: February 01, 2008, 8:52 AM Post
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DrWood said:
Ennder said:
I'd still be very happy with that offensive output, especially the OBP's considering how weak ours was last year as a team.

considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections.

The extra month of Braun easily covers the 0.003 drop in OBP. Fielders OBP is offset by the gains of Hart and Hardy. Weeks playing full time would again more than cover that OBP drop. That leaves Hall, Kendall and Cameron as pure profit in OBP. The team OBP should go up a good amount to at least league average.



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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#12

Posted: February 01, 2008, 9:04 AM Post
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considering those projections decrease OBP of weeks, braun and fielder, and the only big increases are cameron, hall and kendall, I don't see any reason to be "happy" if the team fulfilled the projections

Well, the drop for Weeks doesn't make much sense. His BB rate will be stronger in 2008 than the offseason models are anticipating imo. How you can project a .368 OBP with a .265 BA for a guy who was .374/.235 last year is beyond me... probably due to looking at 2006 & '05 as well.

Why so pessimistic on these projections? They've probably got Weeks well below what he'll produce, and...

The best part of these numbers are they look conservative to me for the Brewers other than Cameron, these are not levels that our players will have huge problems reaching. The Cubs have Soto and Fukudome who could easily fall short of those projections given the lack of experience. If one or both of those guys really struggle to reach those numbers we should have better hitting and pitching than the Cubs.

The Cubs numbers look more optimistic than pessimistic, and the Brewers' numbers look more pessimistic than optimistic. I'll take the latter any time - like Ennd said, it means your guys won't have much trouble reaching the projection levels.

Oh, and a sidenote -

Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP

this is the first projection system I've seen on Pie that I think paints an accurate picture of what he can do. I really am not looking forward to facing that guy a bunch in the next ten years.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#13

Posted: February 01, 2008, 9:23 AM Post
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Why don't you nerds back it up to the statistical analysis board?

Great stuff as usual. Some of the numbers are projecting a little low (braun/fielder) but it's interesting to see them predict Capuano making a solid turnaround.


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#14

Posted: February 01, 2008, 9:54 AM Post
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Didn't Felix Pie bat something like .215 in the majors and .350 at Iowa? I wonder how that leads to a projection of .289? Averaging?

Lee is a year post wrist injury. I wonder what the algorithm is for that.

Formerly AKA Pete


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#15

Posted: February 01, 2008, 10:02 AM Post
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With a young player (Felix only had 177 MLB AB in 2007), it's more about talent & ML-equivalent-izing, unless I'm making a huge error. Pie is the real deal imo... not a super-slugger, but he profiles very similarly to Soriano (but probably has better plate discipline).

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#16

Posted: February 01, 2008, 10:03 AM Post
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I too was a little surprised that Pie is expected to SLG for more than Weeks.


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#17

Posted: February 01, 2008, 10:05 AM Post
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Now that's where you can see the three-year (or however many PECOTA uses) weighting. Weeks will SLG better than Pie, and post a better overall OPS.


Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#18

Posted: February 01, 2008, 10:09 AM Post
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Those 2008 projections DO NOT represent a division-winner in my opinion.
Those projections are slightly better than the Cubs so unless you think the Reds explode on the scene I don't know what else they could point to. That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

I also might have screwed up by using WARP to compare the teams since I think I might have counted defense twice. I'm not exactly sure how WARP works for pitchers, if it removes defense and park or not. If it doesn't remove defense then I just counted defense twice in the comparison.


Last edited by Ennder on February 01, 2008, 10:21 AM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#19

Posted: February 01, 2008, 10:48 AM Post
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That would be an above average rotation and a top end offense.

This seems to be Melvin's m.o. as a GM, doesn't it?

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate


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Offline  Brewer PECOTA stats
#20

Posted: February 01, 2008, 10:53 AM Post
Posts: 1721
Ennder said:
These are from the weighted mean spreadsheet which came out today. The Cards will be coming out soon.

Thanks much - actually had just answered my question with their email update I received this afternoon that indicated the spreadsheet was available today.



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