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Calculate the odds of winning?

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Offline  Calculate the odds of winning?
#1

Posted: February 25, 2009, 10:12 AM Post
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Posts: 3590
I've seen it done many times. How do you solve this:

Team A has a true talent of a .600 team. Team B has a true talent of a .500 team. They play each other, what are the odds Team A wins?

Better yet, Team A scores an average of 4 runs per game and gives up 3 runs per game. Team B scores 4 runs per game and gives up 4 runs per game. They play each other, what are the odds Team A wins?

I have a faint idea of how to attack it, but rather than bumble through how I'd start to do it and where I'm stuck, can someone just post a walkthrough from square one? (I'm assuming its not too complicated. If its more complicated than I think, a simple link to more info would be excellent too.)


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Offline  Calculate the odds of winning?
#2

Posted: February 26, 2009, 5:09 PM Post
Posts: 9297
From RS and RA, use the Pythagorean theorem to calculate their winning % against an average team. Then use the LOG5 uquation:

http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

For a specific game, you'll want to adjust for home/away and starting pitchers, at the very least.


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Offline  Calculate the odds of winning?
#3

Posted: February 26, 2009, 7:53 PM Post
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Thanks Russ, perfect.


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