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Looking for expected standings w/ confidence intervals

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Offline  Looking for expected standings w/ confidence intervals
#1

Posted: May 06, 2009, 1:49 PM Post
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Posts: 3590
I want these: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

With 95% confidence intervals for the win totals. Available? Possible to calculate with data present?


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Offline  Looking for expected standings w/ confidence intervals
#2

Posted: May 06, 2009, 3:15 PM Post
Posts: 9297
There are so many uncertainties you could consider. I think the biggest one is just the uncertainy of binomial uncertainties. Flip a coin 162 times and how many heads will you get?

Standard Deviation = SQRT [n x p x (1 - p)]

n = number of games
p = probability of winning

For a .500 team playing 162 games, 1 SD = 6.4 games.


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Offline  Looking for expected standings w/ confidence intervals
#3

Posted: May 07, 2009, 5:39 AM Post
Posts: 10279
The only way to get those CIs for their projection system is to undertake a bootstrap


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