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How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?

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Offline    How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#1

Posted: April 29, 2012, 10:02 PM Post
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When you evaluate a player's career, do you swear by WAR, do you take it into account, or do you have little faith in it?


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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#2

Posted: April 30, 2012, 10:49 AM Post
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Take it into account


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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#3

Posted: April 30, 2012, 12:11 PM Post
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Almost completely ignore it for pitchers. Look at wOBA then WAR for position players. While looking at WAR consider PA(since WAR is a counting stat) and look at just the defensive portion of WAR compared to other years to gauge how confident I would be that their defense is properly reflected in their WAR. I think it does a pretty good job of measuring a player's contribution in previous years but needs a lot of tweaking if you are trying to guess at WAR for consequent years.

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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#4

Posted: May 03, 2012, 9:29 AM Post
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I take it into account but occasionally take it with a grain of salt.

An example: those of us who think Cal Ripken Jr is overrated (in the context of All-Time greats) will not be as enamored of WAR. Just because there were not a lot of SS's in Ripken's time who hit for power (thus raising his WAR scores) does that mean that Ripken Jr was better than say, Barry Larkin? I don't think so.

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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#5

Posted: May 03, 2012, 9:46 AM Post
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Just because there were not a lot of SS's in Ripken's time who hit for power (thus raising his WAR scores) does that mean that Ripken Jr was better than say, Barry Larkin? I don't think so.

That's an interesting question, because the answer could just as easily be "yes". Context is incredibly important in terms of defining player value (WAR or otherwise).


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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#6

Posted: May 03, 2012, 1:01 PM Post
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I use WAR, but I also really like WAA (wins above average -- basically WAR-2.0*number_of_seasons_played)

It helps to determine if a guy was truly great, as opposed to someone who played for years and years.


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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#7

Posted: May 03, 2012, 2:15 PM Post
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I think WAR is a useful comparison tool but not the definitive answer to anything. I like it much better than many of the derived statistics, especially on the pitching side.

I don't there are very many useful all encompassing metrics when it comes to pitching at this point in time because there isn't a good way to incorporate the nuances of successful pitching into a true "this is how well this pitcher actually pitched" metric. You can't really remove defense from the equation if you can't adequately qualify it on a yearly basis, and no one has done so to this point. Zone systems are better than nothing, but linear systems would work better though require more input/exactness to make work. For pitchers I'm more into comparing the actual result against certain rate stats to form an opinion.

Generally speaking I like baseball-ref's version of WAR for pitching and fangraphs more for position players, but it's all about personal preference. I'm not sure there's a right or wrong answer as to which is better.

I do like using WAR for discussing theories and concepts though, such as trading as established/productive MLB player and yet becoming better team. Many people tend to get caught up 1 for 1 player comparisons when it's not that simple so WAR calculations can be very useful when trying to hash out more thought provoking concepts.

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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#8

Posted: May 10, 2012, 8:08 AM Post
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I prefer looking at championships won and how often the player played on a winning team.


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Offline  Re: How much faith do you put in the WAR stat?
#9

Posted: July 30, 2012, 2:42 PM Post
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If you are talking about a starting pitcher with a long career, I wouldn't weigh fielding independent stats very much. I wouldn't use a version of WAR that uses FIP as a result. Really, ERA becomes pretty darn good (adjusted for park) over a long career, unless the pitcher had a consistently good for bad defense behind him.

For evaluating a hitter's career, I would be happy to use WAR.


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