LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next  [ 43 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

SABR FAQ - First Draft

Author Message
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#1

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:03 AM Post
Posts: 9293
Well, we got the separate "Statistical Analysis" thread. Hopefully we can develop it into a great resource for not only general SABR information, but hopefully a nice source of Brewer related statistical analysis as well.

There's some great links here already; Let's add some more. Eventually we'll clean this thread up and have everything nice and organized.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#2

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:08 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 4067
sounds great, get crackin'


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#3

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:31 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5413
I think that is a great idea. If someone doesn't have a handle on what a stat is trying to describe, they could post a question in that forum rather than wasting a bunch of posts in a regular thread in the MLB forum.

EDIT: Also, it would be a good place to maybe post articles/links/new thoughts that those of us who are stat-leaning individuals, where they would probably be more easily discussed, i.e. it wouldn't fall off the 1st page of topics so quickly.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#4

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:38 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 924
Oh and please inform us all on who exactly the mysterious "Replacement Player" is . . . .;)

And why PECOTA's formula is a secret akin to Nuclear Launch Codes . . .


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#5

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:43 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 829
Baseball-Reference.com's "Bullpen" Wiki and Wiki Gonzalez, the Baseball Think Factory encyclopedia are good SABR-ish resources for this kind of information.

But I'd be all for having a BF.net authored wiki of our own.

edit- fix formatting


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#6

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:44 AM Post
Posts: 9293
Oh and please inform us all on who exactly the mysterious "Replacement Player" is

Why he's 80% of an average guy of course... so like 5-7 and 120 lbs.

Eckstein!

Seriously, a seperate forum sureeee would be nice. Atleast we wouldn't waste everyone's time posting the same thing over and over again. We could just link to a thread.

It's nice to have Brewer-centric SABR posts. Like showing Lee's RBI's are mostly a function of opportunity, for instance. It would be nice having one pinned thread with just links to SABR-centric websites, like the one's above.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#7

Posted: August 15, 2005, 7:45 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5413
From Keith Woolner's old site: www.stathead.com/articles...r/vorp.htm

Based on research I conducted and published in Baseball Prospectus 2002, replacement level is set at 80% of the positional average rate of offense for most positions (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH). Replacement level for pitchers is figured separately for starting and relieving, as detailed in BP2002:

Starting pitcher replacement level = 1.37 * League RA - 0.66

Relief pitcher replacement level = 1.70 * League RA - 2.27


...

Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous studies I've done, but have not published -- I may finally get around to it this year). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research).


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#8

Posted: August 15, 2005, 8:26 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 924
Quote:
Based on research I conducted and published in Baseball Prospectus 2002, replacement level is set at 80% of the positional average rate of offense for most positions (85% is used for catchers, 75% is used for 1B/DH). Replacement level for pitchers is figured separately for starting and relieving, as detailed in BP2002:

Starting pitcher replacement level = 1.37 * League RA - 0.66

Relief pitcher replacement level = 1.70 * League RA - 2.27

...

Replacement-level delta is set at 70 points of OPS below league positional average (based on previous studies I've done, but have not published -- I may finally get around to it this year). The same delta is used for all positions (this is a possible area for future research).



Zzzzzz.. . . . .Z....Zz.......Z..z..z....zzz . . .*snork*

Uh . .huh? Did you say something? I drifted off there.

Oh yeah Corey Sullivan sucks because he's hitting 5.3(%?) worse than a nebulous mathmatical formula that changes every time a CF comes to the plate.

Yep, makes perfect sense. So sorry

Let me suggest another book

Zero: The Biography of a Dangerous Idea

As in Zero point.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#9

Posted: August 15, 2005, 9:10 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5413
Oh yeah Corey Sullivan sucks because he's hitting 5.3(%?) worse than a nebulous mathmatical formula that changes every time a CF comes to the plate.

Sullivan's VORP is -5.7, actually.;) But it's not % points, it's Runs Below the mythological Replacement Player. It's cumulative, but an easier way to show his VORPr (his VORP/gm.) extrapolated over 162 games, as I am want to do. Sullivan's VORPr is -.092, which means he costs his team a full run (in comparision to the RP) per 10 games or so, or about 15 runs a season, using the rule of 10 - 1.5 wins. You can wake up now.;)


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#10

Posted: August 15, 2005, 1:28 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 924
Runs Below the mythological Replacement Player. It's cumulative, but an easier way to show his VORPr (his VORP/gm.) extrapolated over 162 games, as I am want to do. Sullivan's VORPr is -.092, which means he costs his team a full run

Well of course it's runs.

Because not only do we get to make up "Player X", but then we get to "translate" his made up batting stats into made up runs scored and in the case of WARP include made up fielding and baserunning stats.

And then all this is throwm into one big hopper and out spits a one size fits all number that anyone can use.

-5.7.

That's much worse than 28.8. Fire Him!

These "one size fits all" numbers like Win Shares, Warp3 and VORP do really drive me nuts.

It's like going shopping with the wife for a pair of pants.

I go to the men's section, collect the right series of data for my body and buy a pair of pants. The inches around my waist the inches of inseam

She goes to the wall picks out the arbitary number somebody assigned despite any sort of acknowledgment that girls might have different body shapes.

5'2" with wider hips? thats a "12(?)" 6'4" with thin hips? Also a "12" . . .

It's why I can get a pair of pants in 10 minutes & a then have to wait an hour as she tries on 60 pairs to "find one that fits"

It's the same with these numbers . . .

In 1987 Tony Gwynn had a WARP3 of 10.8 and Eric Davis 10.3.

Wow how exciting. They both were 10+ runs better than "Player X!"

Despie the facts that they had totaly different seasons and are totally different players.

Nothing is better than Tony Gwynn raw numbers to wallow around in.

Thanks to Retrosheet I see that . . .

In '87 Gwynn hit .370 /.447/.511 wit a bb/k ratio of 82/35(!!) in 157 games

Didn't really care which hand you threw with

RHP .376 /.457/.541
LHP .361/.433 /.470

and despite hitting only 7 HR and having nobody but John Kruk behind him, scored 119 times.

Davis on the other hand hit .293/.399/.593 with 37(!!) HR and a bb/k rate of 84/134 in a injury shortened (read average Eric Davis) season of 129 games.

Though RHP could handle Davis a lot better . . .

RHP .272/.380/.526
LHP .340/.440/.741

And thanks to having hitters like Buddy Bell, Kal Daniels and Dave Parker behind him Davis scored 120 times! One more than Gwynn!

I often hear how RBI is a useless stat, but in my opinon "Runs Scored" is overvalued by SABER formulas.

removing the times that they scored themselves (HR), Gwinn reached bases a whopping 109 times more than Davis, yet had his teammates leave him out to dry on the bases.

So Davis' WARP3 rewards him for having teammates who can drive him in.

At least more than "Player X" teammates can.

Also this just in, there is a rumor that "Player X" is secretly Scott Podsednik's older brother Rex.
Image


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#11

Posted: August 15, 2005, 1:33 PM Post
Posts: 9293
So yeh, anyway... Brian, can we get a "Statistical Analysis" forum please? It might cut down on some of these little bickersand could prove to be a valuable resource for Brewer-centric statistical analysis.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#12

Posted: August 15, 2005, 1:38 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 5413
EDR, just so you know (I'm pretty sure you do), I'm in agreement with you on VORP, as I have said a bunch of times before. I once in a while do like to use VORPr, though.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#13

Posted: August 15, 2005, 1:39 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2471
I don't necessarily disagree with you, EDR, but consider that the distinction between those two players in WARP3 is due to defense, not offense. Davis' historically-adjusted equivalent average was .330 compared with Gwynn's .342, so the BP metrics definitely recognize the superiority of Gwynn at the plate. On defense, Gwynn gets credited as being four runs above average as a right-fielder while Davis is 13 runs above average as a center-fielder. That's why their WARP scores are similar. How much you decide to trust BP's defensive stats is up to you.

~Bill


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#14

Posted: August 15, 2005, 1:40 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 4067
rluz...i can't give you a forum, but i can pin a thread to the top, i think...


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#15

Posted: August 15, 2005, 1:42 PM Post
Posts: 9293
batman supplied a link to an explanation for EQA...


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#16

Posted: August 15, 2005, 3:30 PM Post
User avatar

Usability Director
Board Administrator
Posts: 15343
I like the idea of original writing by Brewerfan.net paritcipants, with links to bibliographic material. I think the way to handle this is to make this thread a rough draft for something that could be used as a more polished FAQ. I see a two pronged approach. One would be to list links to potentially useful articles. The other would be ask questions we'd like to see answered.

I'll get it going with some links:

GeneralBaseball Players and AgeProductive OutsThe Effect of KsStat DescriptionsMisc.

That’s the only thing Chicago’s good for: to tell people where Wisconsin is.
-- Sigmund Snopek


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#17

Posted: August 15, 2005, 3:31 PM Post
User avatar

Usability Director
Board Administrator
Posts: 15343
One category missing from the above is clutch hitting. I can find the stuff, but I'm now too tired. Maybe another time unless someone beats me to it.

This has always bugged me. When we evaluate players, we always talk about 10 runs being equal to a win. I've seen it so much I accept it as fact. But I'd love to see a couple links to more information about it.

That’s the only thing Chicago’s good for: to tell people where Wisconsin is.
-- Sigmund Snopek


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#18

Posted: August 15, 2005, 3:33 PM Post
Posts: 324
That is awesome that you took the time to put all of those in. Good work.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#19

Posted: August 15, 2005, 3:41 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 4067
www.baseballgraphs.com/

Good stuff on pythagorean's here...


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  SABR FAQ - First Draft
#20

Posted: August 16, 2005, 4:17 AM Post
Posts: 9293
hardballtimes.com


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page 1, 2, 3  Next  [ 43 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test