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SABR FAQ - First Draft

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Offline Frisbee Slider SABR FAQ - First Draft
#21

Posted: August 16, 2005, 5:16 AM Post
Posts: 158
I have seen this posted on bf.net before, but I am interested in seeing a table that lists "expected runs" for different situations during a baseball game (ex. runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out).

Could someone post a link on where I could find a table with that information?
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Offline brettac1 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#22

Posted: August 16, 2005, 5:20 AM Post
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Posts: 5413
Right here:

www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html

There may be a newer one, but this is usually the one I reference when I mention Run Expectancy.
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Offline rluzinski SABR FAQ - First Draft
#23

Posted: August 16, 2005, 5:27 AM Post
Posts: 9297
Run Expectancy - 1999-02
 --------OUTS--------- 0 1 2 Empty 0.555 0.297 0.117 1st 0.953 0.573 0.251 2nd 1.189 0.725 0.344 3rd 1.482 0.983 0.387 1st&2nd 1.573 0.971 0.466 1st&3rd 1.904 1.243 0.538 2nd&3rd 2.052 1.467 0.634 Loaded 2.417 1.65 0.815


LINK

Run Frequency - 1999-02

The following table presents the rate of the number of runs that scored, from that base/out state, to the end of that inning. All data is from 1999-2002.
 Base Outs ----------------Runs------------------- 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Empty 0 0.707 0.154 0.074 0.035 0.016 0.013 Empty 1 0.827 0.101 0.042 0.017 0.007 0.005 Empty 2 0.923 0.051 0.017 0.005 0.002 0.001 1st 0 0.563 0.176 0.132 0.067 0.034 0.028 1st 1 0.717 0.123 0.091 0.040 0.017 0.013 1st 2 0.864 0.062 0.049 0.016 0.006 0.003 2nd 0 0.368 0.348 0.142 0.076 0.035 0.030 2nd 1 0.594 0.230 0.098 0.045 0.018 0.014 2nd 2 0.777 0.147 0.049 0.017 0.006 0.003 3rd 0 0.136 0.542 0.164 0.090 0.035 0.033 3rd 1 0.338 0.478 0.106 0.045 0.018 0.014 3rd 2 0.737 0.187 0.050 0.017 0.006 0.004 1st&2nd 0 0.359 0.219 0.165 0.127 0.070 0.059 1st&2nd 1 0.574 0.161 0.110 0.088 0.038 0.028 1st&2nd 2 0.769 0.106 0.058 0.044 0.015 0.008 1st&3rd 0 0.124 0.417 0.174 0.142 0.076 0.067 1st&3rd 1 0.345 0.370 0.119 0.092 0.042 0.031 1st_3rd 2 0.715 0.151 0.061 0.049 0.016 0.008 2nd&3rd 0 0.144 0.249 0.307 0.147 0.079 0.074 2nd&3rd 1 0.305 0.285 0.218 0.101 0.053 0.038 2nd&3rd 2 0.724 0.054 0.141 0.049 0.021 0.011 Loaded 0 0.128 0.255 0.211 0.143 0.134 0.130 Loaded 1 0.330 0.252 0.151 0.106 0.093 0.068 Loaded 2 0.675 0.092 0.105 0.055 0.048 0.025


LINK

I use the second table alot. For instance, it tells me:

* Lead off double scores 63% of the time
* Runner at 3B and 1 out scores 66% of the time
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Offline Frisbee Slider SABR FAQ - First Draft
#24

Posted: August 16, 2005, 6:44 AM Post
Posts: 158
Thanks. Exactly what I was looking for.

Out of curiousity only...why are the only tables available from 1999-2002? Of course, to create a table like this takes a lot of resources, but I would think there would be different tables with larger/different samples available, too.

Thanks again.
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Offline Jimbo SABR FAQ - First Draft
#25

Posted: August 16, 2005, 6:56 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1022
Location: Waukesha, WI
This has always bugged me. When we evaluate players, we always talk about 10 runs being equal to a win. I've seen it so much I accept it as fact. But I'd love to see a couple links to more information about it.

Two ways to come up with the magic number of 10 additional runs = 1 additional win.

Use linear regression. Let wins be your dependent variable while run differential is the independent variable. Use data from any year.

Or for those not statistically inclined, take out a sheet of ordinary graph paper. Let the Y-axis be wins, the X-axis run differential. Take the 14 or 16 teams from any league or any year and plot. Draw a straight line that closest to connecting most of the dots. That line should have a slop of about "10".
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Offline rluzinski SABR FAQ - First Draft
#26

Posted: August 16, 2005, 3:07 PM Post
Posts: 9297
Win Expectancy Finder

Fun to play with.... um.. that guy uses this to make those Brewer charts. Help me out here!
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Offline brettac1 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#27

Posted: August 18, 2005, 10:09 AM Post
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Posts: 5413
Baseball Musings Day by Day Database
Baseball Reference
Baseball Prospectus

EDIT: Since I asked for it, I'll post it. I imagine rluz will delve into this much deeper than just a link, but:

Article about Bill James' Log5 Equation
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Offline ILBrewerFan SABR FAQ - First Draft
#28

Posted: September 16, 2005, 6:15 AM Post
Posts: 109
Does anybody know where you can download statistics (preferably at the lowest level possible (i.e. Player/Game/AB). Any format (.txt, .db, .xls, etc).

Thanks,
Shannon
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Offline bball123h2 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#29

Posted: September 16, 2005, 6:19 AM Post
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Posts: 839
I used this for my senior paper in college (of course, about the Brewers):

Baseball Statistics

Hope this helps!
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Offline ILBrewerFan SABR FAQ - First Draft
#30

Posted: September 16, 2005, 6:31 AM Post
Posts: 109
I used this for my senior paper in college (of course, about the Brewers):

Thanks. I found that one, but I believe those are yearly numbers. I was looking for something a little more disaggregate. It's a nice history however so I think I'll grab it anyway. Thanks again.
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Offline bball123h2 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#31

Posted: September 16, 2005, 6:33 AM Post
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Posts: 839
Yea, sorry bout that. Misread your post...
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Offline rluzinski SABR FAQ - First Draft
#32

Posted: September 26, 2005, 12:02 PM Post
Posts: 9297
Does anybody know where you can download statistics (preferably at the lowest level possible (i.e. Player/Game/AB). Any format (.txt, .db, .xls, etc).

The easiest thing to do (that I've found):

1. Copy stats from ESPN.com or where ever and save in notepad (take spaces out of team names, WhiteSox for instance).

2. Open in excel (make sure to choose .txt) and choose "delimited" then "next" then "space".

At the end of the season I'll do it for league team stats and Brewer stats, so I can shoot them to you if you like.
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Offline rluzinski SABR FAQ - First Draft
#33

Posted: December 05, 2005, 2:22 AM Post
Posts: 9297
This really needs to get cleaned up. We need a single pinned thread with just links, organized by topics (like what 1992casey did earlier in this thread).

Isn't there a way to open up a single post to editing by all?
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Offline Time for a Miller SABR FAQ - First Draft
#34

Posted: May 10, 2007, 6:17 PM Post
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Posts: 243
Uhhh, I hope someone out there hears this. The last post on this thread was over a year ago. Can someone clean this up and just post some good links?
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Offline fitz19 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#35

Posted: June 05, 2007, 7:32 AM Post
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Posts: 34
Underestimating the Fog - Bill James
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Offline rluzinski SABR FAQ - First Draft
#36

Posted: March 20, 2008, 2:49 AM Post
Posts: 9297
"In baseball, the danger of using small sample sizes boils down to a a phenomenon called regression to the mean. Most of you have at least heard of this concept, and practically everybody utilizes it intuitively in their everyday lives. Regression to the mean, simply put, is the tendency for any observation to be less extreme on subsequent observations."
Staturday: Small sample size

This is a must read.
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Offline TooLiveBrew SABR FAQ - First Draft
#37

Posted: March 20, 2008, 3:52 AM Post
User avatar

Brewerfan Jedi
Global Moderator
Posts: 20409
"I think I've been called, indirectly at least, a small sample size Nazi. I don't have the patience to discuss with anybody who insists on using small sample sizes as the basis for their argument. It's dangerous, it's wrong, and you should never, ever do it. Let's talk about why that is.
...
...for any player, you have "true skill" and "actual performance." We too often think that "actual performance" is "true skill." That's incorrect. A player has a true skill, and he utilizes that true skill to accumulate actual performance data. But those data are only random samples from his true skill."

This should be posted as a banner atop the forums... especially the bold part.


Forecasting performance based on regressing to the major league mean is actually remarkably accurate. Projecting a player's performance by simple regression to the league mean is almost as good as systems like PECOTA, Chone, or ZiPS.

Who knew? Image

Great read; thanks for sharing that rluz.
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Offline RyDogg66 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#38

Posted: May 18, 2008, 11:02 AM Post
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Tom Petty Apologist
Posts: 3637
Where can I find current BABIP and LD% for players this season?
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Offline sbrylski SABR FAQ - First Draft
#39

Posted: May 18, 2008, 12:12 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 3590
RyDogg66 said:
Where can I find current BABIP and LD% for players this season?

Fangraphs.com is where I go.
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Offline logan82 SABR FAQ - First Draft
#40

Posted: May 18, 2008, 2:28 PM Post
Posts: 12311
This site has it as well.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/
Fan is short for fanatic.
I blame Wang.
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